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10 Dec, 6 tweets, 2 min read
So, India does 7.5m ecommerce deliveries / day this yr (China presently at ~220m).

In 2019, India did 7m/day vs China 175m. Different data sets for India (Redseer) and China (SCMP); so be careful.

Ecom mkt size for india $30b in '19 vs China $1200b '19 is 1:40 (Bain report)
India daily delivery data via Redseer - Shadowfax study.
itln.in/shadowfax-reds…
China daily delivery data via scmp.com/tech/policy/ar…
India, China ecom mkt size data via
bain.com/insights/how-i…
I dont have a clear single number (projected) for ecom mkt size for 2020 for both China &India. Been reading that Indian ecom mkt should expand by 50-60% (Redseer says $46b run rate for 2020; up from $27b in '19); China too has seen spectacular growth but not clear how much yet.
Worth noting that delivery volumes havent risen as much in India (7m / day to 7.5m / day; <10% growth) - clearly market has been led by rising AOVs and not expanding access.

China expanded from 175m -> 220m / day = ~25% growth.

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More from @sajithpai

Sajith Pai Profile picture
18 Oct
I thought this podcast of @rorysutherland w @patrick_oshag was really good.

Learnt about psychological moonshots, hypothecated pricing, and why you should do mass advertising. Clippings fm my notes.

investorfieldguide.com/rory-sutherlan…
Psychological moonshots (as opposed to regular engineering-led moonshots).

Great Q fm Rory - are we in startupland predisposed to more expensive engineering moonshots?
How reframing a negative as a feature, basis our understanding of human psychology, helps. A faster ship would have been harder to pull off & would have still meant slower speed vs an airplane. Instead they focused on slowness and the romance of sea travel.
Read 12 tweets
Sajith Pai Profile picture
14 Sep
Tailwinds > Moats.

A thread.

Worth noting that when Softbank acquired ARM in ‘16, both NVidia and ARM had similar market cap - in the early $30bns. Now Nvidia is at $300b and ARM is being acquired for $40b!

1/7
theverge.com/2020/9/13/2143…
Nvidia has perhaps been amongst the biggest beneficiaries of rise of ML, self-driving cars, gaming where their GPUs have come in handy. As the need for compute power grew Nvidia found itself on the right side of ML tailwinds.

Whereas ARM, a virtual monopoly has languished.
2/7
Sure, there have been perhaps management issues at ARM etc. And the comparison isn't exactly like to like. But if there is a takeaway here, it is that riding tailwinds is perhaps far more important than having moats.
3/7
Read 7 tweets
Sajith Pai Profile picture
19 Aug
New (and a tad long) post on elite colleges in India,, national economic mobility, privilege and what it says about us.

Thread.

linkedin.com/pulse/merit-sc…
2/17
It is common to use IIT/IIM as a shorthand to refer to elite colleges in India. Sometimes IIT/IIM/BITS or IIT/NIT/IIMs and so on.

We lack a moniker like the U.S.'s Ivy or France's Grande Ecoles.

So I created one.
3/17
We can look at any top tier college in India, from the IITs to Xaviers / Ashoka, and you will see that they tick these 4 boxes – selectivity in intake, all India (national) intake, presence in a metro or residential nature, and English-fluency.
Read 17 tweets
Sajith Pai Profile picture
14 Jul
Enjoyed this podcast where @deepakshenoy chats w the ever interesting @kunalb11

Brief thread of what I found interesting.
(there is also a transcript if you prefer that)

capitalmind.in/2020/07/podcas…
Why Indians don't value time!

I dont know if this is true but this is a fascinating hypothesis.
Finance skills ≠ Financial literacy.
Read 8 tweets
Sajith Pai Profile picture
5 Jun
Thread. Thoughts on hiring / recruitment tech in India.

Spurred by an interesting discussion on desi startup twitter led @banglani & @arnav_kumar on why hiring is broken in India.

In turn spurred by a response to a tweet by @avlesh

1/13
From all of that discussion + data from our blue collar thesis research that my colleague @SanchitaBamnot1 is driving, here is what I make out.

The resume is the basic unit of hiring, thus far. All business model innovation happens around that or reinventing that.
2/13
However the resume is largely useful only for organised sector white collar jobs which btw only number ~35m or so in India.
3/13
Read 13 tweets
Sajith Pai Profile picture
4 Jun
Thread.

On the NYT controversy over Sen. Cotton's piece, the NYT's changing business model, and what it tells us about the news business.
1/19
It is fascinating to sit 12,600 kms away from the US and read all of the angst over the NYT's opinion ('editorial') section, featuring Senator Tom Cotton's piece on dealing harshly with looters and rioters by calling in the Army.
2/ 19
nytimes.com/2020/06/03/opi…
What I want is not to talk abt the politics of the piece, or anything around that. I am too far removed from it. What interests me is to interpret the ferocity of the reaction in light of the underlying business transformation of the NYT.
3/19
Read 19 tweets

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