THREAD: Here are the essential points from the EU's time-limited, limited effect no-deal Brexit mitigation offer.
(Most concessions are unilateral measures it will implement. Some require UK cooperation - not clear what happens if we refuse to do so!) ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf…
Air travel
"Unless there is a contingency measure in place on air transport at the end of the transition period, air traffic between the EU and the United Kingdom will be interrupted."
The EU is proposing 6 months of reciprocal concessions to keep (most) planes flying.
However, they're not offering any concessions on airline ownership requirements, so BA for one may come unstuck here (depending on how its restructured shareholding is going). Its message: you already had plenty of time to prepare, including a grace period.
Road transport
A) Haulage
With no agreement, hauliers would have to use ECMT permits to provide any freight transport between the UK and the EU. But there aren't nearly enough of those to go around. So they're giving a basic grace period of 6 months, as long as we reciprocate.
B) Bus services
"Furthermore, in the absence of an agreement on a future partnership between the EU and the United Kingdom by 1 January 2021, regular bus services to and from the United
Kingdom would have to be interrupted"
Here too, offer is 6 months of continued connectivity.
C) Eurotunnel
Summary, paraphrased: we both want the tunnel to keep working just as much as each other, so let's sort out the administrivia to make sure that happens. In the meantime, let's extend safety certifications for a bit to keep it flowing.
Fishing
The EU want a reciprocal agreement to allow EU and UK vessels access to each other's waters until the end of 2021. (Not clear what happens to all the other proposed mitigations if the UK tells them to get lost on this point.)
And that's the lot. Anything not covered by the short list of measures will fall by the wayside come 1 January 2021 if we don't have a deal.
So, assuming the UK agrees to the above, we now have the shape of no-deal clear at last. Most things will break. A few basics carry on.
One more thing to point out: the EU explicitly asks member states not to freelance their own side-mini-mitigations in parallel to the EU's overall offer. Assuming that EU members respect that requirement, nobody will come galloping to our rescue.
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Because he's announced it today but it's only coming into effect on Wednesday, you can expect the usual wild excesses tonight and tomorrow from the subset of people who always seem to treat this sort of thing as the last day before the asteroid hits.
Oddity: London is so dangerous now that it requires Tier 3 restrictions, but from 23-27 December it will be perfectly fine for Londoners to spread their wings all over the UK (and for people to flock to London to visit people there).
The Express currently has *23* Brexit stories on the front page of its online edition.
Every one of them is a lie, distortion or fabrication.
It is not really *that* surprising that their readers have misunderstood the whole Brexit thing...
Since the referendum (and in the run-up to it too) anyone relying on the Express for "news" will have been exposed to thousands, maybe tens of thousands of stories about Brexit.
These paint a *consistently misleading* picture, ie they're wrong, but build on each other.
How can one expect people to be informed when faced with such a barrage of brainwashing?
But there is one thing the Express might be able to twist, but it won't be able to hide: shortages in the shops.
It will take the EU a surprisingly short time to recover from Brexit.
1) They have already (in effect) replaced our trade since the referendum. 2) Their borders are ready. 3) Each of our 27 competitors has the might of the EU behind them. 4) More jobs and capital will flee.
5) They will have significantly more bandwidth to devote to other issues (eg trade deals: 100% of their negotiators will be able to get back to their primary role of signing up new partners) 6) We have sabotaged our competitiveness further by axing VAT-free shopping for tourists
7) Hauliers who aren't already avoiding the UK will see the chaos at the ports, and give us a wide berth 8) The rapid switch to electric cars forces all auto manufacturers to completely rejig their plants *anyway* so more will take the opportunity to leave
In the absence of any deal, the EU has proposed a series of limited-time, limited-effect mitigations to avoid the full chaos of no-deal Brexit. Lots to digest, but worth digging into... not least because they make clear how hard life without them would be. ec.europa.eu/info/publicati…
They make it crystal clear that, if the UK doesn't return to the negotiating table sharpish in the new year, we are bang out of luck. Planes will stop, hauliers won't be able to transport goods, etc.
Cards? Ha. We'll only be able to dream of the days we still had *any* to play!
Reading through them, it's warming that *someone* has our backs (even if it is also to protect the EU's own interests), because our own government has clearly abandoned us long ago.