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Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
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12 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
CityAM takes a leaf out of the Express...

Headline: "London retains finance jobs as Brexit fails to deliver blow to the City"

Body: "Financial firms in London have already moved around 7,500 jobs and £1 trillion in assets to new EU hubs as a result" cityam.com/london-retains…
The argument being made is that because firms hired more staff in the last 4 years than have been moved overseas, Brexit wasn't an issue.

But that's like saying that a bath with the tap running and a leaky plug isn't losing any water.

If it wasn't leaking it would be fuller.
It's a very Tory way of counting...

"Look, everyone... 20,000 new nurses. Aren't we fantastic?"

"But 18,000 nurses quit, so..."

"Shh. You're spoiling my vibe."
Circling back to the beginning of this thread, £1 trillion is around 10% of the total assets managed by the City.

That's a pretty hefty chunk! Imagine someone saying to you "hey, I'm just going to cut out 10% of your body - cool with that?"

cdn.ymaws.com/www.export.org…

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Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
14 Dec
London and some nearby areas are going into Tier 3. Pubs, cafes, restaurants etc. must close except for take-aways, and hotels and B&Bs must shut too.

This will be devastating at the most valuable time of year. But it's the direct consequence of too-weak restrictions earlier.
Because he's announced it today but it's only coming into effect on Wednesday, you can expect the usual wild excesses tonight and tomorrow from the subset of people who always seem to treat this sort of thing as the last day before the asteroid hits.
Oddity: London is so dangerous now that it requires Tier 3 restrictions, but from 23-27 December it will be perfectly fine for Londoners to spread their wings all over the UK (and for people to flock to London to visit people there).

And then the virus comes off its Xmas break.
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
13 Dec
The Express currently has *23* Brexit stories on the front page of its online edition.

Every one of them is a lie, distortion or fabrication.

It is not really *that* surprising that their readers have misunderstood the whole Brexit thing...
Since the referendum (and in the run-up to it too) anyone relying on the Express for "news" will have been exposed to thousands, maybe tens of thousands of stories about Brexit.

These paint a *consistently misleading* picture, ie they're wrong, but build on each other.
How can one expect people to be informed when faced with such a barrage of brainwashing?

But there is one thing the Express might be able to twist, but it won't be able to hide: shortages in the shops.

January 2021 will be a steep learning curve!
Read 8 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
12 Dec
It will take the EU a surprisingly short time to recover from Brexit.

1) They have already (in effect) replaced our trade since the referendum.
2) Their borders are ready.
3) Each of our 27 competitors has the might of the EU behind them.
4) More jobs and capital will flee. Image
5) They will have significantly more bandwidth to devote to other issues (eg trade deals: 100% of their negotiators will be able to get back to their primary role of signing up new partners)
6) We have sabotaged our competitiveness further by axing VAT-free shopping for tourists
7) Hauliers who aren't already avoiding the UK will see the chaos at the ports, and give us a wide berth
8) The rapid switch to electric cars forces all auto manufacturers to completely rejig their plants *anyway* so more will take the opportunity to leave

And so on...
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
11 Dec
The UK government is abolishing VAT refunds for foreign tourists.

"The Government says removing the tax break will save the taxpayer more than £1billion a year"

If it saves £1 billion, the tourists are spending at least £5 billion less in the UK!

thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/art…
Except... that's not the full picture. Not even close.

You see, tourists don't get ALL the VAT back. So they will have spent more than £5 billion to get £1 billion in refunds.

They'll also have shelled out on plane tickets, hotels, restaurants, shows, museums, attractions etc.
Then there's transport, guided tours, incidental purchases that aren't covered by the VAT refund scheme, etc. etc.

What the UK Government has done is invent a policy that targets the wealthiest tier of tourists, and turned them away from the UK.

Is it because they're foreign?
Read 4 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
10 Dec
THREAD: Here are the essential points from the EU's time-limited, limited effect no-deal Brexit mitigation offer.

(Most concessions are unilateral measures it will implement. Some require UK cooperation - not clear what happens if we refuse to do so!)
ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf…
Air travel
"Unless there is a contingency measure in place on air transport at the end of the transition period, air traffic between the EU and the United Kingdom will be interrupted."

The EU is proposing 6 months of reciprocal concessions to keep (most) planes flying.
However, they're not offering any concessions on airline ownership requirements, so BA for one may come unstuck here (depending on how its restructured shareholding is going). Its message: you already had plenty of time to prepare, including a grace period.
Read 9 tweets
Edwin Hayward 🦄 🗡 Profile picture
10 Dec
In the absence of any deal, the EU has proposed a series of limited-time, limited-effect mitigations to avoid the full chaos of no-deal Brexit. Lots to digest, but worth digging into... not least because they make clear how hard life without them would be.
ec.europa.eu/info/publicati…
They make it crystal clear that, if the UK doesn't return to the negotiating table sharpish in the new year, we are bang out of luck. Planes will stop, hauliers won't be able to transport goods, etc.

Cards? Ha. We'll only be able to dream of the days we still had *any* to play!
Reading through them, it's warming that *someone* has our backs (even if it is also to protect the EU's own interests), because our own government has clearly abandoned us long ago.
Read 5 tweets

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