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10 Dec, 5 tweets, 2 min read
BREAKING - I have the latest monthly death registration data for Ireland.

The official numbers continue to proclaim that over 2,000 people died "from Covid".

But that just doesn't make sense - see below. 👇👇👇
Firstly, take a look at this chart showing monthly deaths per 1000 people (adjusted for late registrations).

January 2020 was unusually mild. And April 2020 was the same as Jan 2017 & Jan 2018.

It doesn't look as if the months add up to something worse than the average year...
...which is confirmed by my calculations.

2020, by the end of September, is now perfectly average compared to the prior five years.

Time to show you why the official story doesn't add up...
Excluding 1,805 "Covid-related" deaths by the end of September, the death rate falls to a new record low.

Either non-Covid deaths hit a record low in 2020, despite all of the disruption in hospitals and nursing homes, or something is wrong with the official Covid numbers.
And this analysis does not even adjust for Ireland's rapidly aging population.

When I take the age of the population into account, I find that mortality actually has a great chance of making a new all-time low this year. Despite thousands of "Covid" deaths.

An unusual pandemic!

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More from @GrahamNeary

Graham Neary Profile picture
7 Nov
BREAKING: LATEST MORTALITY DATA (released yesterday)

See below for my updated and extended charts, and a few new ones. 👇👇👇

There's a clear trend towards improving annual mortality, and no evidence of any impact from Covid.

Please share: everybody needs to know this!
Here's the raw data.

I've updated my estimates for the first half of the year, including all late registrations.

I've been deliberately pessimistic, and my pessimistic esimates are what you will see in the charts below.
First up, here are monthly registrations and the total from January to September.

April 2020 is the worst of all the months in my dataset.

And 2020 is 3.6% higher than an average year.

But the story is only beginning.
Read 8 tweets
Graham Neary Profile picture
5 Nov
Nobody who understands what I'm about to say can think about the Covid-19 crisis again in the same way. 👇👇👇

It's all based on objective data, and simple estimates.

Please retweet this and let's raise the level of understanding.
I've already shown that in Ireland, the first six months of 2020 were nothing special, in terms of deaths per 1,000 people.

The number of deaths was perfectly normal.

Quite surprising!

In that analysis, I adjusted for population growth.

But what about increasing age, which after all is Covid's major risk factor?

The ONS already did this for England: annual age-adjusted mortality is 2% worse than 5 years ago.

Wales is doing slightly better than 5 years ago:
Read 9 tweets
Graham Neary Profile picture
20 Oct
It has been requested that I do a simpler version of this thread, explaining why the modellers advising the Irish government are so amazingly wrong in their forecasts and in their understanding of the risk from Covid-19.

Here goes. 👇
1. The death count is wrong. We know this because it has been admitted to be wrong by the government (including by Leo Varadkar) and the number itself makes no sense.

All explained here:

2. The modellers think very few people have been infected so far. Wrong.

They say less than 2% of the population had antibodies 10-14 weeks after the epidemic peak.

But research suggests many people already lose their antibodies 8 weeks after infection.

nature.com/articles/s4159…
Read 8 tweets
Graham Neary Profile picture
19 Oct
Why is Ireland locking down again? Look no further than our Covid-19 spreadsheet modellers.

They are unshakeable in the belief that Covid-19 remains a deadly threat to the population. But as I'm about to reveal, they are standing on shaky ground.

Thread. 👇👇👇

#level5 #NPHET
Meet Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the Epidemiological Modelling Group on Ireland's NPHET. This man is the key provider of Covid-19 statistical analysis and forecasts to the Irish government.

Think of him as the Irish equivalent of Neil Ferguson.

In the thread above, he claims that about 1/3 of all infections were detected by PCR during the epidemic peak in April.

If that's true, and testing continued to find a high % of cases, then total infections so far might only be c. 100k-150k (vs. the official case count of 50k).
Read 13 tweets
Graham Neary Profile picture
18 Oct
We don't have a Covid crisis - we have a public information crisis.

That's my conclusion, after reviewing the latest mortality data from Ireland.

Here are my updated and extended charts.👇👇👇

Please retweet to help get the word out.
Firstly, remember that "Covid-19 deaths" includes people who died of other things.

Leo Varadkar:

"We counted all deaths, in all settings, suspected cases even when no lab test was done, and included people with underlying terminal illnesses who died with Covid but not of it."
Secondly, take a look at the unadjusted all-cause mortality data (with thanks to @Thorgwen).

You'll note that April 2020 (based on deaths registered so far) is comparable to flu months in January 2017 and January 2018.

Year-to-date registrations so far, up to June, look normal.
Read 9 tweets
Graham Neary Profile picture
2 Oct
According to TheJournal, it's a "far-right conspiracy theory" that "Covid-19 death rates are being inflated as a way of justifying continued restrictions on the public."

TheJournal says "Covid-19 was a factor in all of those 1,806 deaths".

Time for a factcheck by Leo Varadkar.
Varadkar:

"In Ireland we counted all deaths, in all settings, suspected cases even when no lab test was done, and included people with underlying terminal illnesses who died with Covid but not of it."

The death count includes people who died with Covid, not of it. Got that?
Varadkar:

"This was right approach but skewed the numbers. Priority is to save lives not look good in league tables."

Is that clear enough? They skewed the numbers to "save lives", by frightening people into accepting restrictions.

Leo is now a right-wing conspiracy theorist.
Read 7 tweets

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