Tens of thousands of people have already been vaccinated as part of Covid clinical trials. We haven't seen any significant safety concerns so far, and the FDA just gave an emergency approval for the Pfizer vaccine. Let's talk more about vaccine safety. 1/
An independent committee conducts their own analysis of clinical trial data for all vaccine candidates. Covid vaccines are no exception, and this week the committee released its analysis of the Pfizer vaccine. Vaccine efficacy in preventing Covid after two doses was 95%. 2/
After the second shot, most people in the clinical trial had headache and fatigue and 10-15% felt feverish; this went away within a day or so, and is a sign the vaccine is working. No serious adverse reactions have been identified. 3/
Yet when millions of people are vaccinated, rare adverse effects could become apparent. We can anticipate that some people will get sick after vaccination. The challenge will be to determine whether these illnesses are purely coincidental or if they're related to the vaccine. 4/
Even if a harmful immune reaction occurs in just one in 100,000 vaccinated people, it would need to be rapidly identified, effectively treated when possible, and transparently discussed. 5/
Transparency is essential to build trust, address concerns, and counter false information. We must consistently share what we know, how we know it, what we don't know, and what we're doing to find out. 6/
Vaccines are coming, and they offer us hope for an end to the pandemic. But for most Americans, they're not coming soon enough. In the months ahead, we still have to wear masks, watch our distance, and wash our hands. 7/7
Just to be clear, it was the VRBPAC that recommended (17-4-1) EUA. The FDA will act soon, likely today.
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Covid Epi Weekly: A Week of Great Progress for Vaccines…But Also, Unfortunately, for the Virus
Encouraging vaccine news but deeply discouraging lack of action to stop pandemic. Coming weeks will be devastating but numbness to suffering is spreading as rapidly as the virus.1/10
First the good news. Good transparency about vaccines; data about as good as could be. Highly effective including for older people (tho few frail elderly included), and against severe infection. No serious adverse events - but need to track for this when millions vaccinated. 2/10
The road to immunity through vaccination will be bumpy. Production, supply, distribution, uptake, possible adverse events - all huge challenges. New vaccines will likely be approved in the New Year. An enormous challenge, but if the communication is done well, can succeed. 3/10
Covid Epi Weekly: Public Health Waking Up From Politics-Induced Coma
Cases, hospitalizations, deaths worsening. Vaccination coming - let’s make sure as many of us as possible live to see that day. We must double down on protection protocols. Together, we’re stronger and safer.1/
Highest case, hospitalization rates in US ever. Cases cresting in much of midwest, still very high. Some of decrease in past week: less testing/care over holiday. My father, who ran intensive care units, commented: “Only very sick people come in on Thanksgiving and Christmas.” 2/
Cresting doesn't mean low. “Lower”: “sky high but not quite as sky high”. Stunning: more than 1 in 3 people in S Dakota infected. By Jan 20, if it were a country, it would have highest death rate in world: ~1 of every 60 people over age 70 killed by this preventable infection. 3/
Covid Epi Weekly Thread: Worser and Worser, Every Week
Cases increasing exponentially in most of US; current epicenter including increasing hospitalizations, deaths is in midwest. Likely half million new infections/day. In Dakotas, an estimated 1 in 11 people have Covid.
1/10
Test positivity increased 10.8%→11.9%. @youyanggu nowcasting 3.3 infections/diagnosed case. Tho not all people estimated to have illness are infectious (max. infectivity before and 5-7 days into illness), nationally ~1 in 100 people infectious today. covid19-projections.com 2/10
Highest hospitalizations ever in US. Deaths increasing. Further increases inevitable - but continued increases are not (more on this later). Midwest is a crescendo. Northeast increasing. South never decreased a lot, now increasing. West increasing. bit.ly/3kQONPy 3/10
Covid Epi (and Research) Weekly: New Highs, New Lows
More cases in more places than ever. More hospitalizations. Sadly, as much division as ever. Encouraging news on vaccines, immunity but many hard months ahead. Together we can reduce spread, save lives, protect jobs. 1/thread
Stunning increase in cases, dangerous increase in hospitalizations, tragic increase in deaths. On March 10 @cyrushapar and I estimated deaths with .5% fatality rate. Sadly, our projections are on track. Act now or half million people could die. bit.ly/35s0nwm 2/
Simple, depressing math. Test positivity increased from 8.4% to 10.5% in a week. Cases are increasing exponentially. Hospitalizations lag cases by 1-2 weeks. Hospitalizations will pass 100,000 within a month. Deaths will reach 2,000 a day by the end of the year. 3/
Covid Epi Weekly: Death Won’t Take a Holiday this Holiday Season
Divided government. Divided country. Just when we most need unity to stop the pandemic. Covid skyrocketing. 100-fold difference between S Dakota and Vermont, and 10x between northeast and upper midwest. 1/thread
How bad is the increase? Bad. Doubling, tripling of cases or more in many communities and states. Much of the country is in the exponential increase phase. Every day of delay cost lives. Basic concept: 1-2 punch. 1: Knock virus down, minimizing social harm. 2: Keep it down. 2/14
First, the numbers. Bad almost everywhere. CDC understatement: “Percent positivity increased [7.2% to 8.2%] among all age groups ... in all regions.” Horrifying. National tsunami. Hospitalizations up 14%, deaths up 8%. Deaths follow hospitalizations by a week or two. 3/14
Hard to imagine a worse confluence. Cases surging in much of US. People are tired of limitations the virus is imposing. Economic harm is real, painful, and persistent. White House communications continue to mislead, divide, deny. 1/
Bottom line (almost) up front: there IS one thing that can stop Covid. For months I’ve said there isn’t, but there is one thing. Not masks. Not travel limitations. Not staying home. Not testing. Not contact tracing. Not isolation. Not quarantine. Not even vaccine.
It’s TRUST.
2/
Around the world, the best predictor of controlling Covid is social cohesion. The understanding that we’re all in this together. We’re all safer when we all mask up, support tracing, and, eventually, get vaccinated. No group can get infection without endangering others. 3/