1/ Articles like this should tell planners that Taiwan's army might surrender en masse when the actual fighting comes defence-blog.com/news/army/taiw…
2/ Like, imagine you are Sergeant Drun in the ROCArF. "Sgt Drun hide your tank platoon in this parking garage. Do not move until ordered to"
3/ When T-day comes, you sit tight, while PLA choppers fly overhead and explosions happen all around you. Your comms are dead. You can't move because there's a 5km traffic jam both ways right outside the main exit of your parking garage.
4/ After four hours, your C/O finally gets on the line and tells you to move. You start inching your way out, crunching a few civilian cars on the way. When you get to the main road, your lead tank runs over a mine and explodes.
5/ You radio your C/O for help but he says he can't reach battalion command because they got whacked by a laser-guided bomb 10 minutes ago. The combat engineers are nowhere to be found, so you start backing up again, trying to get off the main road and find local cover
6/ You hide in local cover for another 2 hours while more explosions happen everywhere until your company commander tells you he's being swarmed by a PLA air assault 500m south of your position. You drive over and your lead tank is immediately smacked by an ATGM
7/ You have no idea what just shot at you. Your tank is stuck behind burning wreckage. Choppers are screaming overhead. You radio your company commander and hear nothing. Your gunner has already peed himself and you can already smell it.
end/ It's not hard to imagine whole units surrendering at that point, as subunits are dispersed across urban terrain with civilian vehicles clogging all axes of movement, comms jammed, and Chinese airpower mercilessly hunting ROCArF vehicles with no hope of survival.
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1/ I think Chinese liberals will never be relevant to the majority of Chinese people
(as for whether that's a good thing or not, I'll leave that up to you) @timeswang
2/ Chinese 'liberals' believe (to varying levels) China should allow free speech, press, and religion, multiparty democracy, less military spending, and allowing some level of regional self-determination twitter.com/i/lists/132831…
3/ These issues do not resonate with the majority of Chinese people. If China had an election today, Chinese 'liberals' would lose in a landslide.
When will Chinese 'liberals' learn that no amount of caping for Western principles can override how their identity is perceived in the Western system?
h/t @OBukowsky
1/ The Overton window on China is ruthlessly enforced with donor cash... the majority of 'China Watchers' are barely above water while they pay down NoVa / DC mortgages or rent
2/ It's also enforced via access to current and former officials, which help a great deal in maintaining DC blyat. There is large and tensely wound web that drives the conversation
3/ In addition to be ruthlessly enforced, the window is narrow because the main funders of that ecosystem - Taiwan, Japan, Big Tech, defense cos, Pentagon - are all on the same page, especially re tech (except Wall St but their influence is much weaker with near-constant QE)
1/ A new Biden admin should take the opportunity to stabilize US-China relations before Trump's policies push it into a new Cold War. The foremost policy to change is America's sanctions on Huawei.
2/There's a lot of noise from industry lobbies and the IC resisting such a move, but in truth, the Huawei sanctions at best harm America's long-term interests for a purported and unclear short-term benefit, and at worst risk generational conflict.
3/ With that being said, let's begin by looking at how the sanctions got started. SIGINT + 5G was the major driver of the Huawei sanctions: smh.com.au/business/compa…