Thread by @BigManBakar

The Review: GW 11 - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to “The Review” where I look back on the key numbers of GW 11 with a look ahead to GW 12:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

1) Which Tottenham Hotspur assets are worth holding?

Another solid performance on both ends of the pitch saw Spurs earn bragging rights over Arsenal in the north London derby. Despite having tough fixtures Heung Min Son and Harry Kane have still been among the goals for Spurs...

... therefore it may be worth to have another look at how the duo have been performing and who would seem to be the better option to invest in:

Son (GW 1-8) vs Son (GW 9-11)

Mins per shot inside the box: 49.4 vs 267
Mins per big chance: 71.3 vs 267
Mins per big chance created: 214 vs 267
Avg. FPL points per game: 9.25 vs 8.67

Kane (GW 1-8) vs Kane (GW 9-11)

Mins per shot inside the box: 28.6 vs 270
Mins per big chance: 79.3 vs 90
Mins per big chance created: 89.3 vs 270
Avg. FPL points per game: 10 vs 6

Spurs (GW 1-8) vs Spurs (GW 9-11)

Shots inside the box per game: 10.38 vs 2
Big chance per game: 3.63 vs 0.67
Chances created per game: 11.75 vs 3

After looking at the underlying stats we can see that Spurs have reduced swarming the opposition box and have started to take more of the chances from outside the box clinically and seem to have adapted to the defensive mentality that Mourinho has been trying to impose...

... since the draw with West Ham. However, this mentality has shown promise with Spurs being undefeated over the last 10 GWs. Therefore, it may make sense to invest in either Son or Kane, but...

... doubling up with mixed fixtures to follow (cry liv LEI wol FUL) might restrict the addition of other premium assets.

2) Whom to invest in, Trent Alexander-Arnold or Andy Robertson?

Liverpool securing a massive win over Wolves saw them manage to get their second clean sheet over the last three GWs with a heavily depleted defence due to injuries...

... Let's take a look at whether or not Liverpool's defence has found its footing:

Liverpool (GW 1-8) vs Liverpool (GW 9-11):

Shots inside the box conceded per game: 8.25 vs 6.67
Big chance conceded per game: 2.75 vs 2

The underlying stats show the improvement...

... Liverpool have made defensively and with favorable fixtures to follow (ful TOT cry WBA new) it might be worthwhile to invest in a defensive asset, two candidates stand out, Alexander-Arnold and Robertson, let's run a comparison between them:

Alexander-Arnold vs Robertson:

Mins per shot: 54.9 vs 141.4
Mins per shot inside the box: 714 vs 165
Mins per big chance: 714 vs 495
Mins per big chance created: 238 vs 198
Mins per touch in the final third: 2.86 vs 2.72

By looking at the stats Robertson edges out Alexander-Arnold this season, as Robertson going forward shows more potential. Historically, Trent has always outperformed Robertson in terms of underlying numbers but this season things as far more even.

3) Has Mohammed Salah been able to regain the form he had before his unavailability?

Salah (GW 1-8) vs Salah (GW 10-11):
Mins per shots inside the box: 27.65 vs 77
Mins per big chance: 89.9 vs 154
Mins per big chance created: 179.8 vs 154
Avg FPL points per game: 8.375 vs 10

By looking at the stats above we can see Salah despite having lesser chances is scoring more points, to further analyze this I look at how Liverpool have been faring in the attacking department during the same time:

Liverpool (GW 1-8) vs Liverpool (GW 10-11)

Shots inside the box per game: 10.6 vs 5
Total big chances per game: 3.25 vs 1
Chances created per game: 11.13 vs 6

It can be seen that Liverpool have also been creating less since Salah's return but seem to be more clinical than before, but with favorable fixtures to follow (ful TOT cry WBA new) it is worth investing in the Egyptian.

4) Who is the best candidate for captaincy this week?

As mentioned earlier in my GW8 Review, Salah if fit again was a keep for me for their visit to Fulham where is he is the standout captaincy option, particularly because Man United and Man City play each other...

... Him playing 90 in midweek changes nothing for me as I firmly believe that he should start if fit, particularly now that there is a question mark on Jota’s unavailability. We established earlier above that despite him and Liverpool not putting up the numbers they...

... did before Salah's unavailability, they do however have been much more clinical than in the past and now facing a 17th placed Fulham team who are currently inside the bottom four for shots conceded inside the box, big chances conceded, and xG conceded...

... with Liverpool being top for big chances, shots inside the box, xG and xG from open play, Salah would seem the ideal choice for captaincy this week.

5) Is Patrick Bamford the real deal?

Leeds Attack:

Shots inside the box: 113 (League Rank: 2nd)
Chances created: 122 (League Rank: 1st)
Big chances: 24 (League Rank: 5th)

By looking at the stats its certain Marcelo Bielsa's Leeds continue to show their exuberant form in attack they have been showing since GW1 and at the heart of this attack Patrick Bamford keeps on reaping the rewards. Let's take a look at how...

... Bamford has been faring up among the forwards since the start of the league:

Patrick Bamford:
Shots inside the box: 38 (League Rank: 1st)
Big chances: 13 (League Rank: 2nd)

By looking at the stats it can be seen that Bamford has found his feet in the league despite having faced the toughest opposition there is in the league and now with favorable fixtures to follow (WHU NEW mun BUR wba), it may be wise to invest in Bamford for the long run.

6) With Lucas Digne sidelined, is it time to move on from Dominic Calvert-Lewin?

The draw with Burnley saw Everton failing to secure a win for two consecutive GWs, and now with both their wing backs set to serve time on the sidelines until late next month, it's time we...

... look at whether faith should be shown in their top scorer, Dominic Calvert-Lewin. Let's take a deep dive into how Everton's star striker performs with and without his key teammates:

Calvert-Lewin (with Digne and Richarlison) vs Calvert-Lewin (with Richarlison and no Digne) vs Calvert-Lewin (with Digne and no Richarlison)

Mins per shots inside the box: 25.3 vs 25.7 vs 180
Mins per big chance: 53.75 vs 60 vs 180
Mins per big chance created: 430 vs 180 vs 180

By looking at the stats it can be seen with Digne out in the past couple of GWs, Calvert-Lewin has nearly managed to emulate the stats he had during the start of the season, therefore even with the tough fixtures to follow (CHE lei ARS shu MCI)...

... it might be worth putting faith in Calvert-Lewin since transferring him out at this point would see managers lose out on team value should you choose to buy him back...

... The sample size I have used is small though, so it’s important not to generalize too much on the basis of this data. Worth pointing out though!

Q7: Should faith be shown in Timo Werner?

With the inclusion of Ziyech in the starting line up we saw Timo Werner produce his best run of form under Chelsea colors, but with Ziyech ruled out for the next couple of GWs, it might be time to run the scanner over Werner and see...

... whether or not does Timo gives enough evidence to keep faith in him:

Werner (GW 7-10) vs Werner (GW 1-6)
Mins per shot inside the box: 46.7 vs 40
Mins per big chance: 65.4 vs 260
Mins per big chance created: 327 vs 520
Mins per chance created: 81.75 vs 173.3

By looking at the stats it does seem like Timo Werner does perform comparatively well with Ziyech starting. However the fixture against Leeds saw Werner top all the statistics above with Ziyech injured on the 23rd minute mark, therefore with...

...the fixtures to follow (eve wol WHU ars AVL) and being on penalty duties, it might make sense to keep faith in Werner due to his prolific attacking potential if you don’t have bigger fish to fry in your team. I’m sure he’ll keep ticking along. Having said that, alternatives...

... such as Bamford, Watkins, Wilson and Calvert Lewin have been posting similar stats for far cheaper so a very good case can be made for selling too.

8) Who is the best replacement for Hakim Ziyech?

After picking up an injury and confirmed to be on the sidelines for a while it might be time to look for a replacement for the Moroccan, here I run a comparison among the potential candidates:

Zaha vs Grealish vs Jota vs Bowen

Mins per shot inside the box: 36.4 vs 40.5 vs 35.8 vs 50.7
Mins per big chance: 114.4 vs 162 vs 100.2 vs 228
Mins per big chance created: 267 vs 115.7 vs 250.5 vs 304

Liverpool lead the league in xG from open play and big chances so obviously playing for a world class team, Jota the edge over the other options. Jota does run the risk of being rotated but past evidence suggests that coming off the bench may not...

... be a problem for the Portuguese to get attacking returns. Further, he is a slight doubt this week so if you’re looking at other options, the rest offer good alternatives. Grealish has the fixtures and has...

... been on form, while Bowen and Zaha are good options (albeit with tougher fixtures) should you wish to roll the dice.

9) Is it time to double up on Man City attacking assets?

Following the defeat to Spurs a couple of GWs ago, City have turned up in style scoring seven goals in the span of two GWs. And now with favorable fixtures to follow after derby this week (WBA sou NEW eve)...

... it would be worthwhile to take a look at which of Man City’s assets should be counted on during the span of these of fixtures:

Sterling vs De Bruyne vs Jesus vs Mahrez

Mins per shot inside the box: 45.63 vs 43.65 vs 45 vs 44.2
Mins per big chance: 146 vs 148.5 vs 450 vs 342
Mins per big chance created: 365 vs 106 vs 450 vs 171
Mins per chance created: 81.1 vs 26.1 vs 75 vs 31.1

By looking at the stats it is certain that De Bruyne is a must-have considering the set piece duties to go along with. But since all other players run the risk of rotation, therefore if you’re looking at doubling up, then it might make sense to double up with Mahrez...

... since his stats are on par with Sterling and being cheaper than Sterling allows the freedom of funds allocation in other positions for the same quality.

Q10: Is it time to jump on the Callum Wilson bandwagon?

With Newcastle's match being postponed last GW, it can be said that it has been a rollercoaster season for the Magpies. However, owners of Callum Wilson have not been affected by these ups and downs due to his consistent...

...attacking returns, therefore it may be time to run the scanner over Callum Wilson and see how he fares against other similar budget players:

Wilson vs Watkins vs Wood

Mins per shots inside the box: 46.8 vs 36.8 vs 51.2
Mins per big chance: 79 vs 73.6 vs 108.9
xG: 6.6 vs 5.64 vs 3.33

WBA lee FUL mci LIV is a very good run for Wilson and I think he might outperform the likes of Watkins in the short term. Having said that, I believe Villa’s attacking threat is significantly higher than that of Newcastle’s this season so Watkins should beat him in the long run.

Apologies in advance should you find a few grammatical errors in the piece this week as I’ve barely had enough time to put this together let alone proof read. A big thank you to my friend @SFK7 who has helped in my work!

Further, I’d like to thank everyone for the wishes that have been pouring in for my exams. A lot of people have reached out to me directly so I’m sorry if I’ve been able to respond to each one of you individually. I’m a Chartered Accountancy finalist, and the...

... final professional exams held are one of the toughest in the country due to the ludicrously low pass rates. It was important for me to give it my best shot. The exams were extremely challenging, but like always it’s a learning curve for me. It’s the same in FPL, where...

... often you make the right decisions based on data but they don’t go your way, like for Mahrez owners last week. I have utmost faith that I will get rewarded for trusting the “process” sooner rather than later. I believe, you should too!

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