Thread by @JRosenblattTV

YIKES: Why #NY22 will still be undecided long after the GA Senate runoffs, and other things you probably don't want to hear 1/

For this thread, I am going to use the best case scenario for each of the steps along this timeline. It's still more than likely it will be multiple months before this is all sorted out 2/

First step is the partial canvassing/recanvassing process created by the justice's ruling earlier this week.

We don't have a definitive schedule yet for this process, but both campaigns have proposed similar ones. Here is an example from the Brindisi camp below 3/

A couple things about this process, some that could speed it up but more that are likely to drag it out.

As you can see, counties will be conducting this process simultaneously, but that's about the only thing that'll be quick about it 4/

The first thing that could slow this down is what exactly the process entails. Below you'll find a filing by the Tenney team objecting to the scope of the process and certain requests from the other side.

The justice will likely clear this up, but for now it's an obstacle 5/

As per usual, Oneida County could also serve as a potential problem.

With more than 1500 ballots to review, it's possible the process takes longer than the three days allotted.

All county BOE employees were also exposed back on 12/4, but it appears they have figured it out 6/

Put all of this together, best case scenario we are done with this process by the end of the week.

The date is now December 18th 7/

After the partial canvassing and recanvassing, Justice DelConte will still need to rule over all of the challenged ballots one way or another. There are up to 1000 of these potentially.

Even if suddenly this process gets much faster than it's taken so far, it will take a week 8/

Now best case scenario, the justice has decided all of the challenged ballots by Christmas Eve. Keep in mind it's likely it takes even longer.

From Christmas through New Year's Day, the NY courts take an end of the year recess.

It is now January 2nd 9/

The new Congress is seated on January 3rd, so we will miss that date by a while.

The Georgia runoffs are scheduled for January 5th 10/

After the justice has ruled on all challenges, the counties will need to certify their results, which shouldn't take too long.

So far, all parties involved have tried to avoid going to a full recount, but the justice made it clear in his ruling he wants accuracy, not speed 11/

With the margin as close as it is, it's hard to imagine we don't end up in a recount.

Seeing as we still don't have an official count from the first time, this will be a very, very long process.

Best case scenario, a full recount will take 2 weeks.

It is now January 14th 12/

Once a recount is complete, theoretically this could be the end of the long winding saga that is #NY22.

But because nothing is ever perfect, an appeal of one or more of these decisions, or a new lawsuit entirely, is the most likely outcome 13/

I'm not even going to attempt to say how long the litigation will last, but best case scenario let's say each lawsuit takes a week and a half.

There are three appellate courts higher than the jurisdiction we are currently in. At 10 days each, we are now in mid-February 14/

This brings me back to my original point. The GA runoffs are 1/5. In the November general, the state certified three separate counts in a little over a month.

If the same thing happens again (a big if), GA will be done 2/9 15/

Best case scenario, #NY22 will be done in mid-January.

Most likely scenario, #NY22 will be done in mid-February.

Worst case scenario, the litigation lasts forever and my grandchildren still don't have #NY22 representation.

All this to say, don't say I didn't warn you 16/16