How is it possible that Maduro is still in power, despite Venezuela's collapse? While it’s tempting to describe him as crazy or erratic, a closer analysis reveals that Maduro operates according to a clear – and effective – set of principles. 👇🧵
americasquarterly.org/article/why-ve…
It of course also helped that the US government has, paradoxically, done everything possible to strengthen Maduro. Trump never cared about regime change in Venezuela. The goal of his Venezuela policy was to win in Florida in 2020. He succeeded.

americasquarterly.org/article/four-s…
Maduro has achieved a remarkable feat: most leaders in the region and elsewhere have grown tired of paying attention to Venezuela. Even better for him, there's a consensus that even his departure would not really change much.
americasquarterly.org/article/even-a…
Future historians will view this crisis as a tremendous setback in South America’s long quest to manage its own affairs and reduce outside influence. americasquarterly.org/article/how-ve…
South American leaders have become mere bystanders to the region's greatest humanitarian disaster in decades: When it comes to the future of Venezuela, the key int'l decision-makers will not sit in Brasília or Bogotá, but in Beijing, Washington & Moscow.
americasquarterly.org/article/venezu…

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More from @OliverStuenkel

13 Dec
Brazil's president Bolsonaro is no longer trying to hide the fact that he regards his vice-president, general Hamilton Mourão, as a major rival. 🧵👇folhadelondrina.com.br/politica/bolso…
While Mourão has done much to protect the president, his many corrective measures have led him to contradict Bolsonaro so frequently that a growing number of hard-core Bolsonaro supporters now regard Mourão as a traitor who is overtly sabotaging his boss, plotting to replace him.
Given how personal the attacks by anti-globalists against Mourão & his fellow generals have become, and how deafening the president’s silence has been in response, it seems unlikely that the relationship between Bolsonaro & his vice president can recover.
americasquarterly.org/article/how-bo…
Read 6 tweets
8 Dec
Quem espera que a vacina encerre o pesadelo da pandemia de uma hora para a outra vai ter uma surpresa e tanto. A chegada do medicamento a hospitais e postos de saúde deve iniciar uma reação épica por parte dos movimentos antivacina.👇🧵
Prepare-se para fake news surreais. Histórias de ataques epilépticos logo após a vacinação, gente q se transformou em morcego, cidadão de bem que gritou “Viva Che Guevara” assim q foi imunizado, pessoas q descobriram ter um chip implantado com os dizeres “propriedade da Huawei."
A campanha global de vacinação terá uma proporção e uma agilidade inéditas. Dezenas de milhões de idosos receberão suas doses. Mesmo que o imunizante funcione e não tenha efeitos colaterais relevantes, é claro que alguém pode falecer de outra causa e acabar associado à vacinação.
Read 13 tweets
29 Nov
The Bolsonaro government seems to be engaged in an extraordinary foreign policy experiment: rather than remaining neutral or siding with one superpower, it is confronting both Xi Jinping (communist who spread the Wuhan virus) and Joe Biden (globalist who stole the US elections).
Bolsonaro also undermined ties to Argentina, France and Germany, successfully transforming a country that once prided itself for being on good terms with everybody into a pariah -- within less than 2 years. That requires a lot of hard work, focus and discipline.
However, as long as Poland and Hungary are governed by far-right populists, Brazil can always count on diplomatic support from Budapest and Warsaw. Plus, we're part of the Ostrich Alliance with Nicaragua, Turkmenistan and Belarus.
Read 6 tweets
28 Nov
Bolsonaro diz q nunca chamou covid-19 de"gripezinha", embora essa declaração tenha sido dada em pronunciamento oficial gravado. Mentir descaradamente acaba sendo uma demonstração de poder: mostra q a verdade ñ é páreo para o presidente e q pode escapar de qq coisa impunemente🧵👇
Para populistas com tendências autoritárias, mentir sistematicamente é uma estratégia central. Ela serve não só para anestesiar a população como para expandir pouco a pouco os limites do politicamente aceitável.
Os seguidores dessas figuras entendem que defendê-las mesmo diante de provas incontestáveis é um teste de lealdade. É preciso ser contra ou a favor do movimento, sem nuances nem vacilos.
Read 9 tweets
27 Nov
Bolsonaro says he never called covid-19 a "little flu", a claim that can easily be disproven -there are videos of him saying just that. He knows, of course. Yet lying so blatantly without consequence is a demonstration of power: he's not bound by truth &can get away with anything
Indeed, for populists with authoritarian tendencies, systematic lying is an important strategy -- not only to anesthetize the population, but also to push the boundaries of what is acceptable little by little.
For an autocratic populist, lying blatantly -- i.e., without even trying to conceal the lies -- is like a test of loyalty. His followers must make a choice: either they are with or against the movement. Absolute loyalty involves defending the leader even if he is obviously wrong.
Read 8 tweets
19 Nov
A 12ª cúpula presidencial do grupo BRICS aconteceu na terça-feira (17/11). Em função do seu formato virtual, e por causa das eleições americanas, a reunião recebeu pouca atenção. Mesmo assim, enganam-se aqueles que pensam q o grupo deixou de ter um papel geopolítico relevante🧵👇
Desde 2009, quando os presidentes do grupo se reuniram pela primeira vez, comentaristas disseram que o grupo não teria futuro. Porém, os presidentes se reúnem anualmente até hoje -- e mesmo Bolsonaro, que prometeu romper com qq "tradição petista", abraçou a iniciativa. Por que?
Três razões se destacam: primeiro, o grupo é uma espécie de seguro contra o isolamento diplomático. Quando a Rússia invadiu a Crimeia e sofreu sanções do Ocidente, o grupo BRICS se recusou a isolar a Rússia, apesar da violação do direito internacional que a anexação representava.
Read 8 tweets

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