Thread by @bluearrowMaps

Ohio was a painful result for Democrats this year, and to help show why and compare it to other results, here's my concept of urbanized Northern Ohio. Biden won 3 counties with large cities (Cuyahoga, Summit, and Lucas), and lost Mahoning and Lorain #ElectionTwitter

Losing Mahoning and Lorain are significant because Clinton narrowly carried these 2 counties in 2016, and they had been going for Democrats by double digits in years prior and other races. Notably, Sherrod Brown carried both by wide margins in 2018 (more maps below)

Here's how Clinton did for visual comparison. Essentially, most of the area got redder in 2020, and Biden did exactly 1 point worse in 2-party vote share

Both of these are a leap from how Obama did in 2012, only losing 3 counties, and of those, only losing Lake by narrow plurality to Romney. Obama cracked 60% of the vote in the region, and hit double digit wins in Mahoning, Lorain, Trumbull, and Ashtabula

Obama even did about a point better in 2008, winning all but Medina and Geauga counties. I would say this was probably the most recent pinnacle of Democratic strength in Ohio, as Democrats controlled the state House, most Congressional seats, and most statewide offices

Prior to the election, I figured that the mid-sized college counties (Wood, Portage, and Lorain) would be fairly blue because of large college turnout. This proved to be wrong, and rural, blue collar voters turned out and turned against Democrats at unexpected rates

I had also expected Biden to win Trumbull based on 2018 (every Dem carried it), and Erie as well due to popular vote representation, but was also wrong in these regards

I have family in Mahoning, Trumbull, Ashtabula, and Columbiana (South of Mahoning, off map) counties, and tbh I'm surprised the area wasn't red sooner. For all the time I've been going up there, its seemed very culturally conservative

I can also speak to the fact that the area isn't doing good, which paved the way for Trump and Republicans. Youngstown is shrinking pretty fast, places in rural Columbiana and Ashtabula are closing, and people there blame Democrats for all of it

@BrockMeers @mmkrysiak @BruneElections

@ChaseFlanaganOH @Libnex2