Thread by @DamonMag

Trump lost Orange County by 8.6 points in 2016 and by 9 points this year. On the surface, that’s not a sizable shift, but underneath a LOT changed.

This is how #OrangeCounty voted in 2020 compared to 2016. There is an undeniable realignment in many parts of the county.

The biggest shifts *away* from Trump: Whiter, wealthier communities of South County. See Lake Forest, Mission Viejo, and neighboring cities.

And major shift *towards* Trump: Latino and Asian communities in the west/central parts. See Santa Ana, Westminster, and Garden Grove.

For Democrats, the gradual leftward movement in the traditional GOP strongholds is encouraging. Seeing Mission Viejo turn blue is especially interesting. But Dems cannot ignore the seismic changes in Asian & Latino communities. Westminster went from D+15 to R+9, a 24-pt shift!

Diving a little deeper, this shift is even more pronounced in Midway City where ~50% is Asian-American and ~30% Latino. It went from D+22 in 2016 to R+10 in 2020.

There and in Westminster, Trump’s vote almost *doubled* while Biden only slightly improved Clinton’s.

There’s a lot more data, especially in downballot races and props, where some of these shifts can be explained. Some, perhaps, are temporary. For example, having two Asian-American GOP candidates in #CA39 & #CA48, plus #Prop16, certainly played a role.

More maps and data soon!

Note:

The new maps include larger unincorporated communities, most showing interesting demographic/partisan shifts.

I also separated Anaheim Hills from the rest of Anaheim; they’re practically two different cities.

Pretty time-consuming, but I think it was worth the effort.