Confused by the myriad of price predictions for #Bitcoin in 2021. There are a few pricing models for $BTC and they could be grouped as follows:

1. Halving cycle
2. On-chain metrics
3. Market cap
4. Use case
5. Stock-to-flow
6. Magic wand

Which one to lean into? Read on.
1a/ These use technical analysis of the price action of #Bitcoin in previous halving cycles to forecast the price of $BTC, such as Citibank’s. However, the most accurate one to date is Jordan Lindsey’s @jclcapital as detailed in his $BTC video playlist.

1b/ Jordan’s model gives a 2021 price target of $140K-$160K for #Bitcoin. He predicts a shortening of the current $BTC bull phase and a cycle top in 9/2021. He uses a dynamic tracker to seek out the $BTC peak. Follow the daily livestreams on his Youtube channel to get updates.
2a/ Glassnode @glassnode and Willy Woo @woonomic provide 2 of the more notable on-chain metrics models. Glassnode uses 6 on-chain metrics, such as Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, to forecast a #Bitcoin price between $138K and $328K by 12/2021.

2b/ Willy Woo uses his “Top Chain metric” to predict a #Bitcoin price between $200K and $300K by 12/2021.

3/ These models predict the #Bitcoin price based on estimated market cap of $BTC. For example, Bloomberg predicts $BTC could reach a $1T market cap in 2021 using price and market cap trend analysis. It has recently updated the forecast of $BTC's price from $47K to $180K in 2021. Image
4/ This is developed by Ark Invest and it prices #Bitcoin based on 3 use cases: 1) $BTC as a new form of money; 2) $BTC as a store of value; 3) $BTC as a non-seizable, offshore asset. All 3 use cases add up to give $BTC a $3T market cap or ~$160K price, but no timeline is given. Image
5/ These are Plan B’s Stock-to-Flow models, namely the S2F and the latest S2FX, which predicts a price for #Bitcoin of $288K from 2020-2024, but he has recently revised it to $100K-$288K in 2021. However, these models have fundamental flaws (see…). Image
6/ Magic wand models are a catch-all for 2021 #Bitcoin price predictions using numbers pulling out from a hat (eg. network effects, public sentiment, NDX price action, I told you so, etc.) by so called experts.
Jordan Linsey's @jclcapital pricing model for #Bitcoin is the preferred one as it is grounded on solid research and a well thought-out thesis. 2020 is the tipping point as $BTC goes mainstream and 2021 could be the year when we see $BTC go above $1T in market cap. Enjoy the ride!

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More from @AllenAu11

8 Dec
@michael_saylor is very astute as he just took advantage of the favorable market conditions of #Bitcoin and the low interest rate environment to have $MSTR issue 5-year convertible senior notes of up to $460M to buy more $BTC. A great win for $MSTR:…
1/ $MSTR has operating cash flow of $50M/year. The note is ~9x cash flow, but the interest rate should be 3% max so it has ample cash to service the interest payments. It can do interest rate arbitrage by depositing the #Bitcoin into companies like BlockFi.
2/ $MSTR is turned into a $BTC play like the Grayscale Investments’ $GBTC, but even better as it is more like a #Bitcoin #ETF with a tech business but no fees. $MSTR doesn't suffer the premium issue of $GBTC so investors can buy it close to the spot $BTC price. Great attraction!
Read 6 tweets
6 Dec
1/ Another misunderstood item of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC) is its premium, which can be considered simply as the amount one is willing to pay to not custody their own private keys and still get exposure to #Bitcoin. However, it is more than that. Image
2/ When you buy $GBTC, you are not buying #Bitcoin, but only exposure to the crypto king. $GBTC is a trust product solely invested in $BTC offered by Grayscale Investments in the form of shares that are traded publicly in the secondary market, OTCQX Best marketplace, in the US.
3/ $GBTC is popular among institutional investors because it allows them to expose to #Bitcoin and bypass uncertainty related to regulation, compliance, and taxation. For retail investors, it is the only investment vehicle available through tax-advantaged accounts such as 401(k).
Read 11 tweets

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