Thread by @AllenAu11

Confused by the myriad of price predictions for #Bitcoin in 2021. There are a few pricing models for $BTC and they could be grouped as follows:

1. Halving cycle
2. On-chain metrics
3. Market cap
4. Use case
5. Stock-to-flow
6. Magic wand

Which one to lean into? Read on.

1a/ These use technical analysis of the price action of #Bitcoin in previous halving cycles to forecast the price of $BTC, such as Citibank’s. However, the most accurate one to date is Jordan Lindsey’s @jclcapital as detailed in his $BTC video playlist.

1b/ Jordan’s model gives a 2021 price target of $140K-$160K for #Bitcoin. He predicts a shortening of the current $BTC bull phase and a cycle top in 9/2021. He uses a dynamic tracker to seek out the $BTC peak. Follow the daily livestreams on his Youtube channel to get updates.

2a/ Glassnode @glassnode and Willy Woo @woonomic provide 2 of the more notable on-chain metrics models. Glassnode uses 6 on-chain metrics, such as Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, to forecast a #Bitcoin price between $138K and $328K by 12/2021.

https://twitter.com/n3ocortex/status/1336366033255473152

2b/ Willy Woo uses his “Top Chain metric” to predict a #Bitcoin price between $200K and $300K by 12/2021.

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1333826686257831936

3/ These models predict the #Bitcoin price based on estimated market cap of $BTC. For example, Bloomberg predicts $BTC could reach a $1T market cap in 2021 using price and market cap trend analysis. It has recently updated the forecast of $BTC's price from $47K to $180K in 2021.

4/ This is developed by Ark Invest and it prices #Bitcoin based on 3 use cases: 1) $BTC as a new form of money; 2) $BTC as a store of value; 3) $BTC as a non-seizable, offshore asset. All 3 use cases add up to give $BTC a $3T market cap or ~$160K price, but no timeline is given.

5/ These are Plan B’s Stock-to-Flow models, namely the S2F and the latest S2FX, which predicts a price for #Bitcoin of $288K from 2020-2024, but he has recently revised it to $100K-$288K in 2021. However, these models have fundamental flaws (see

francistapon.com/Work/WanderLea…).

6/ Magic wand models are a catch-all for 2021 #Bitcoin price predictions using numbers pulling out from a hat (eg. network effects, public sentiment, NDX price action, I told you so, etc.) by so called experts.

Jordan Linsey's @jclcapital pricing model for #Bitcoin is the preferred one as it is grounded on solid research and a well thought-out thesis. 2020 is the tipping point as $BTC goes mainstream and 2021 could be the year when we see $BTC go above $1T in market cap. Enjoy the ride!