Thread by @tnewtondunn

Where is the Brexit trade deal negotiation now, after the PM and UVDL agreed to extend their 'final' deadline of today?
1. Boris Johnson insists the UK and EU are still "very far apart" on key areas, but everyone expects them to "go the extra mile", so they will.

2. Boris Johnson publicly and Downing Street privately are refusing to discuss whether either side has moved overnight - which very much suggests one/both have. And UVDL described the 11am call as "useful", + made no mention of big gaps continuing.

3. In what would be a crucial break through, @nickgutteridge reports the EU has dropped its demand for a ratchet clause to impose lightening tariffs for LPF divergence. No10 also refusing to discuss this.

4. But, Dominic Raab did tell G&T this morning the UK Govt would accept future tariffs to recognise LPF divergence if an independent body decrees it: "We would accept arbitration as long as it's independently appointed arbitral members" (and the ERG's Bernard Jenkin also agreed).

5. So is that the solution to unlock a deal, and is it now within touching distance? Seems so, despite No10's outward pessimism and insistence privately that No Deal is still the most likely outcome. But I'm also told it may be some days yet - "later in the week" - until we know.

6. Talks have now gone into another radio silence tunnel, with no new deadline set for them (a good thing). Until then, a senior No10 source tells me: "Anybody who claims to know what's going on will be making it up". So the wait goes on, but without doubt, things are looking up.