Why do we exclude groups from vaccine trials (pregnant, lactating women, people w/ anaphylactic reactions) & then allow vaccination of them based on trials? Isn't this recipe for possibly very bad outcomes? Urgent remedy needed.
Thread
nytimes.com/2020/12/11/hea…
Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine was just granted EUA from FDA. EUA does not exclude any groups, except children under 16.
fda.gov/media/144412/d…
CDC met today & also recommended vaccination w/out clear exclusions for groups excluded (e.g. pregnant women).
cnbc.com/2020/12/12/cdc…
But who was excluded from phase 3 trial? Many groups!
Pregnant/breastfeeding women
History of anaphylaxis
Immunocompromised
Those being treated w/ corticosteriods
etc.
I understand that we are trying to get vaccine ready as soon as possible, but trials will include what FDA requires & I don't understand why FDA would allow design that excludes key groups.
This concern is shared by many excluded groups who are then forced to request that those groups aren't excluded from vaccination. This is very problematic.
h/t @nataliexdean
acog.org/-/media/projec…
It could lead to severe side effects being seen for the 1st time during vaccine rollout, as we saw in UK
(nytimes.com/2020/12/11/hea…), & this is damaging for public confidence. An urgent effort to remedy this is needed.
Also, I'm guessing it must have been revised, but trial exclusion criteria (clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04…) include previous diagnosis w/ COVID-19. But FDA doc & NEJM paper clearly show people w/ previous infection included.
fda.gov/media/144245/d…
Can someone explain this mismatch b/w trial & protocol? COVID-19 seems to be exclusion criteria for actual trial (not just primary endpoint), but clearly trial included many w/ previous exposure & COVID-19. Thanks!

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More from @DiseaseEcology

14 Dec
What wildlife could be reservoirs for SARS-CoV-2?
New paper suggests North American big brown bats are not. Here's why this is important & why we need more studies like this.
Thread
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/tb…
We still don't know the natural reservoir for SARS-CoV-2. Some similar viruses were found in horseshoe bats (Rhinolophus spp.), but the difference between those viruses & SARS-CoV-2 is large enough that SARS-CoV-2 may have different reservoir.
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Regardless of where SARS-CoV-2 originally came from, many have worried that SARS-CoV-2 might be transmitted from humans into other animals that might be able to sustain the virus & transmit it back to humans.
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FDA & CDC have given green light for Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. Supplies are very limited initially & transmission is raging so it's important to choose carefully in who to vaccinate first. How can we determine what is best? Mathematical models!
A very nice paper by @bubar_kate @DanLarremore @StephenKissler @sarahcobey @yhgrad @mlipsitch tries to determine which age group should be prioritized to minimize deaths, years of life lost, and total incidence.
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Short thread
Everyone is understandably excited about Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, w/ 95% efficacy against symptomatic cases (but data not so clear for severe infections: ). Now, we need to get it to the people most in need & fast.
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FDA Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine efficacy results are great, but aren't nearly as great as presented for severe infections.
Everyone has seen fig below on cases in vaccine (blue) & placebo (red) over time.
Thread.

fda.gov/media/144245/d…
Key aspect of graph: x-axis. It shows days since dose 1 was given. As expected, no difference in total symptomatic cases in vaccine vs placebo for first 7-10d. It takes some time for vaccine to have any effect!
In fact, main reported efficacy of ~95% is for cases starting 7d after 2nd dose. Efficacy for earlier time points are lower: after dose 1, efficacy is 82%.

Why does this matter?
Read 11 tweets
3 Dec
What fraction of people have been infected w/ SARS-CoV-2?
Are cases in some states (e.g. ND) declining b/c they've reached herd immunity?
Some have suggested that a large fraction of the population in these states have been infected & this is important part of decline.
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Read 12 tweets
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Will vaccination of health care workers (HCWs) lead to accidental silent spreading of COVID-19?

Big possible downside to vaccine allocation recommendations w/out data on whether vaccines reduce infectiousness.
Thread
The justification for vaccinating HCWs is that they are at high risk of exposure from patients & if infected, removing them from workforce has huge impact on care for patients. So vaccinating them 1st seems like an obvious choice, right? Not w/ available data.
We currently know that 2 vaccines (Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna) reduce symptomatic infections by ~95%. But we have zero data on whether they reduce infectiousness (& primate studies indicate vaccine didn't eliminate it: nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.105…; biorxiv.org/content/10.110…)
Read 11 tweets

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