The U.S. is in danger of losing its dominant leadership position in global financial services, writes Henry M. Paulson Jr. wsj.com/articles/china… via @WSJ
1/ Budget deficit reduction is not a priority issue for the next few years given secular stagnation as @jasonfurman and I explain (brookings.edu/events/fiscal-… ). Nor are there strong reasons to worry about budget sustainability.
2/ Other deficits—with respect to infrastructure, investment in children, and innovation—pose much greater threats to our children and our national security than money borrowed for decades at rates close to 1 percent in a currency we print ourselves.
3/I doubt the international competitiveness of the financial sector should be a priority. Indeed, the last time Treasury Secretaries and regulators made it a priority--during the George W. Bush Administration--the last clear chance to avert the 2008 financial crisis was missed
4/Much higher priorities for policy attention to financial sector should be buildups of leverage & possible bubbles in shadow banking system, dubious stress tests & tens of billions of dollars diverted to insiders by what seems a like a crony capitalist IPO underwriting system.
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1/ In Tax Notes today, former IRS Commissioner Charles Rossotti, @NatashaRSarin and I outline how the next Admin can collect more than $1 trillion in a highly progressive way:
Making people pay the taxes that they already owe. taxnotes.com/featured-analy…
2/We've previously written independently on the need for a robust attack on the tax gap.
Here, we come together to lay out a roadmap for change, calling for more audits, tech improvements & third party reporting that will help IRS collect taxes due but unpaid, disprop by the $$$
3/ Our program would raise enough to fund important policy initiatives that will help those who need it most:
Could more than double the EITC or SNAP; or fund universal pre-K and paid leave programs.
Following the great appointment of Janet Yellen, the Biden Administration is assembling a super economic team. This group will be laser focused on middle class prosperity, inequality and discrimination and addressing climate change. They will make a big difference for America.
I have known Ceci Rouse since she was student of mine @Harvard in 80s. She is a deeply serious researcher in the economics of education & inequality. She stood out in the Obama Admin & has been a great Dean. Her integrity will be a big asset for the CEA, Pres Biden & our country.
My friend @neeratanden is a force of nature. Her strength as a communicator is exceeded only by the strength of her convictions. No one works harder, with more of a sense of purpose. She will bring new thinking about government budgeting to the OMB that this moment demands.
1/During a financial crisis, @USTreasury Sec Paulson understood in transition it was his job to help the Fed and the incoming Admin establish a basis for strong, cooperative efforts to contain the crisis. Sec.Mnuchin has done just the opposite. wsj.com/articles/mnuch…
2/In these complex times, there is room for debate on what types of government intervention in credit markets are appropriate.
There's not much room for debate on the merits of maintaining stanbdy capacities.
3/ We cannot predict when or if a panicky cascade will happen in credit markets. Aftershocks after financial crises (and earthquakes) are not uncommon. Removing a capacity to respond as @stevenmnuchin1 has sought to do is wrong.
Told @FareedZakaria on GPS @CNN, America’s failure on COVID-19 is almost unimaginable. Heck, if the U.S. had handled the pandemic as well as Pakistan, we would have saved in neighborhood of $10 trillion.
The costs of an expanded testing system are trivial compared to the costs of tens of thousands of early deaths. Expanding testing should be a matter of utmost urgency.
Interest rates are essentially zero, telling us that the funds are available and won’t crowd out anything important. Instead it will push economy forward. All the dangers are on spending too little, not too much.
As I say in the story, @Harvard investment in @broadinstitute was one of the easiest decisions made during my time as President. In many ways you can measure it, Harvard’s investment in the Broad has been a spectacular success.
I don’t know any other philanthropists who have turned the same rigor, exacting standards and persistence that made them wealthy to their philanthropy in the way Eli Broad, supported by Edye’s shrewd human judgment, has done. @UnreasonableEli
I have a Viewpoint out in JAMA with my colleague @Cutler_econ – The COVID-19 Pandemic and the $16 Trillion Virus. It is particularly relevant today ja.ma/3diC0U9
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We estimate the cost of the COVID virus for the US. Bottom line cost: $16 trillion. This is $200,000 per family or 90% of a year’s GDP.
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Some other metrics: this is 4x the output loss of the Great Recession, 2x the cost of all wars since 9/11, and roughly the cost of climate change in the next 50 years. Let me explain the estimates.
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