It is useful to debate effectiveness of lockdown restrictions but we sometimes need to step back & remember these are unprecedented & draconian restrictions on basic rights & freedoms:
to education, worship, socialise, play games, & to provide for yourself & your family.
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However effective they may be, such restrictions should only be considered as a last resort in an emergency & should be strictly time limited. They are not an appropriate as a medium to long term approach to managing an ongoing public health problem.
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Even as short-term emergency measures, there should be a very high bar of evidence that any particular restriction is both necessary and likely to be effective.
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In much of the country it has been a criminal offence to invite 1 person into your own garden for a social-distanced cup of tea, not just for a few days *to flatten the curve* but for months on end.
In a civilised democracy, such laws should never be seen as acceptable.
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It's hard to exaggerate the stupidity of calls to shut pubs (& restaurants & leisure) in London & Essex because of the rise in infections: the recent increase relates to infections when pubs were actually closed during lockdown.
The only argument for shutting pubs might be if you could be certain that, otherwise, cases would rise even faster. This could be a plausible theory with packed pubs but hard to see how that works with table service & other precautions in place.
Indeed, it is just as plausible that shutting restaurants & pubs increases infections if it drives people to meet up in homes where Covid precautions may be more variable. The Dutch study supports this theory.
After their disastrous forecast for 26 Oct, MRC doubled down. On 3 Nov (just before lockdown), their mid-point prediction was for 545 deaths on 14 Nov, with a range of 380 to 710.
Deaths for the 14th should be fairly complete now and the total for the 14th is 336. The 7-day average is a bit higher (346), but still well short even of the MRC's lower bound estimate.
As I said last time, forecasting is difficult. But this was made just 11 days out so based largely on infections already occurred & tests already completed. Further, forecast range was very wide whilst MRC use the broadest "within 60 days of a positive test" deaths definition.
The NI Executive decision to lockdown again next week is just astounding.
These sort of draconian measures, causing economic & social devastation as they do, should only be considered when there is an urgent crisis and there is absolutely no alternative. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe…
According to the ONS infections in NI are coming down rapidly: 34% drop since late October.
That is consistent with the NI positive test data. The numbers had flattened around 8th Nov, but coming down steadily again now (ignore the last few days as these will be updated):
Covid-19 hospital admissions also coming down steadily in NI since end October (again ignore last few days).