Thread by @owasow

With the Electoral College voting today, I thought I’d share two critiques of the institution. First, a historical critique beginning with Paul Finkelman’s paper documenting ”The Proslavery Origins of the Electoral College.”

https://twitter.com/owasow/status/1323840872983621632

Second, supporters of the Electoral College often argue it helps legitimize the victor by converting narrow margins into commanding wins. In recent elections, though, the opposite is true. The Byzantine rules of the EC often delegitimatize the victor & destabilize our democracy.

The Electoral College turns the US into a semi-stochastic democracy. Essentially, the EC introduces a non-trivial amount of randomness into selecting the president. In theory, semi-random selection might ”thwart undue influence, bribery & abuse of power.” scholarworks.iupui.edu/bitstream/hand…

Looking at the 12 elections from 1976 through 2020, though, in at least five there are clear wins in the popular vote but enough tight races at the state-level that random shocks like weather (or a pandemic) could shift a tiny sliver of voters and reverse the national outcome.

The randomness introduced by the Electoral College destabilizes democracy.

1976 popular vote: clear winner
Carter: 40,831,881 (50.1%)
Ford: 39,148,634 (48.0%)

1976 Electoral College: like a coin toss
Margin to tip EC = MS & OH: 25,579

25,579/(79,980,515) = 0.000319

The randomness introduced by the Electoral College destabilizes democracy.

2000 popular vote: definitive winner
Gore: 50,999,897 (48.4%)
Bush: 50,456,002 (47.9%)

2000 Electoral College: nearly chance
Florida’s margin: 537 votes

537/(101,455,899) = 0.0000053

The randomness introduced by the Electoral College destabilizes democracy.

2004 popular vote: straightforward win
Bush: 62,040,610 (50.7%)
Kerry: 59,028,444 (48.3%)

2004 Electoral College: roll the dice
Margin in EC: IA, NV & NM = 37,547

37,547/(121,069,054) = 0.000310

The randomness introduced by the Electoral College destabilizes democracy.

2016 popular vote: unambiguous
Clinton: 65,853,514 (48.2%)
Trump: 62,984,828 (46.1%)

2016 Electoral College: unpredictable
Margin to tip EC in MI, PA, WI: 77,744 votes

77,744/(128,838,342)=0.00060

The randomness introduced by the Electoral College destabilizes democracy.

2020 Popular vote: commanding win
Biden: 81,282,376 (51.3%)
Trump: 74,222,576 (46.9%)

2020 Electoral College: semi-stochastic
Margin to tip EC in WI, GA & AZ: 42,918 votes

42,918/(155,504,952)=0.000276

In sum, the Electoral College is not only an anachronistic product of the early American slavocracy, it also fails on the terms of its defenders. The EC elevates capricious swings of thousands over clear majorities of millions. It’s long past time to #AbolishTheElectoralCollege.

For an overview of why ”Why every argument in favor of the Electoral College is wrong,” I recommend @UMBLuis’s thoughtful explainer video.

For an overview of my research on political consequences of 1960s civil rights protests, see this thread. In 1968, I find protests likely swayed enough voters in key states to shift Electoral College from civil rights candidate to ”law & order” candidate.

https://twitter.com/owasow/status/1265709670892580869

Why is majority rule especially important in elections? ”Boil it down to three pillars of democratic self-governance: equality, legitimacy & accountability. We ignore them at our peril. And yet they are being ignored right now by millions of Americans…” nytimes.com/2020/12/13/opi…