Thread by @BaluSreevidya

RAJINIKANTH's POLITICS

I have tried to answer many questions individually through DM, but looks like it's better to do a thread and post it publicly.

This thread only looks at TN Politics through Rajini's entry angle. Will do a detailed post on the whole of TN pitch later.

Rajini's political entry can be analysed from 4 angles.

1. Why is he in Politics?
2. What will be his strengths?
3. How will the pitch change?
4. What will be his challenges?

Thread 1 - Why is Rajini in Politics and What are his strengths?

1. Why is Rajini in politics?

24 years ago, when he first considered politics, TN was a nasty scene with both Dravidian parties neck deep in corruption.

That was the first time Rajini openly participated in the political process, voicing against the corrupt regime of JJ.

Since then, he has been studying politics keenly. However, a decision to enter was not taken for reasons best known to him.

When JJ died, he saw opportunity to reset the fate of TN. His intentions seem to be great.

2. What will be Rajini's strengths?

A. Sharp organisational acumen, leadership, vision, deep intelligence, and astute character.

He has done a lot of homework and organisation build in the three years from 2017.

The Rulebook of Rajini Makkal Mandram reflects a robust organisational framework to kickstart his work at the booth level.

The structure, the rules, and the democratic processes of empowerment will protect him to an extent from undesired elements subverting his party.

This shows organisational and administrative acumen.

He has been studying the governance, political and social issues and thinking of solutions. His prep work is similar (in different ways) to the work done by @narendramodi long before he became the PM.

B. Motivated workforce who might transcend to cadres when inoculated* with the right policy intent

C. Superstar image which is a key influencer in TN politics. This is his most visible capital. His organisational and leadership skills are either hidden or are inferential.

D. His promises of clean governance, secular caste-free politics and the resultant HOPE he is giving to voters such as

i. Swing voters who always vote for a regime change

ii. Anti-incumbency or tired voters who want a radical change

iii. Anti-DMK voters who are tired of DMK's

lopsided ideologies, its family based political empire

iv. Gen X and Gen Y who just like exciting things in general

v. Voters who vote for caste-neutral leaders like MGR

vi. Voters who are generally enchanted by movie stars

E. Lack of a third front or alternative even though BJP has a strong organisation architect in @Murugan_TNBJP and a leader in @annamalai_k

BJP has delayed its goal of power capture. BJP is only aiming for four things this election.

i. Blocking DMK from coming to power

ii. Achieving double digit presence in the opposition bench or in administration

iii. Gaining as many Rajya Sabha seats from the 9 seats from TN

iv. Ensuring a govt in TN which will cooperate in implementing centre's schemes

BJP, @ikamalhaasan 's Makkal Niti Maiam and Seeman's Nam Tamizhar Katchi are the only three growth parties.

All others are sunset parties. Since these growing parties don't and won't get along, it's impossible for them to form a third front unless all of them join Rajini front.

F. Support of advisors and well wishers from all walks of life. His pick of Arjuna Murthy and Tamilaruvi Manian.

He also seeks and gains support of @sgurumurthy Ji.

I know personally that Rajini has an ability to thin-slice people and positions. He has remarkable intelligence.

It's highly likely that he will pick the right people for the rest of his party positions.

G. Rajini's campaign will be star-studded. The film industry will back him more than they support anyone else. Knowing TN's obsession with movie stars, this will be a great advantage.

Thread 2 - How will Rajini change the pitch?

3. How will Rajini change the pitch?

A. He will make the election multipolar unless he agrees to form an alliance with AIADMK. But that's not easy. AIADMK has declared EPS as CM candidate and this will be a constraint on Rajini.

Besides ideological challenges of 'clean and transparent politics' may not go well with Rajini joining hands with any Kazhagam

B. He will break the caste barriers which hitherto decided huge swings in certain areas like Western and Northern parts of TN.

I am not talking about communities who get regular ministers/ MLAs and MPs and reservation.

I am talking of those who fall through the cracks. I am not risking a speculation of percentages yet as this has a lot of ifs and buts.

C. DMK will rethink their approach. Much of the money paid to Prashanth Kishore Pandey will be towards stopping the leak from the party rather than gaining new grounds.

They will go on attack mode and will reset based on Rajini's response.

i. If Rajini ignores them like how JJ did, then DMK will continue their Goebbelsian tactics.

ii. If Rajini uses attack politics of offensive defence, then DMK will focus on breaking Rajini's credibility by raising the discovery questions - such as,

what has Rajini done for TN? What did he do for Hindus, considering his age and health, is he not fooling the public with false hope, and so on.

Subverters will be planted in MSM and SM disguised as genuine Rajini supporters who will raise these dying questions

iii. Using their influence in the movie industry, they will keep Rajini on his defence all the time

iv. They will recalibrate approach to AIADMK based on intelligence on Rajini's winnability

v. Fifth column within DMK will aide Rajini secretly as they don’t wish Stalin as CM

vi. DMK will do an all out war on all other fronts and will create riot like situations as the game has gotten tougher for them

vii. DMK will prompt Shashikala and TTV relaunch to split anti-DMK votes and to stop them from going to Rajini

~ but BJP has better plans for them

D. AIADMK will also rethink their approach

Cont'd...

Thread 2 will cover approaches of AIADMK, BJP, other parties, VK Sashikala-TTV, M K Azhagiri.

Thread 3 will cover challenges @rajinikanth might face.

* inoculated, because they have gathered for a person, not an ideology.