I have tried to answer many questions individually through DM, but looks like it's better to do a thread and post it publicly.

This thread only looks at TN Politics through Rajini's entry angle. Will do a detailed post on the whole of TN pitch later.
Rajini's political entry can be analysed from 4 angles.

1. Why is he in Politics?
2. What will be his strengths?
3. How will the pitch change?
4. What will be his challenges?

Thread 1 - Why is Rajini in Politics and What are his strengths?
1. Why is Rajini in politics?

24 years ago, when he first considered politics, TN was a nasty scene with both Dravidian parties neck deep in corruption.

That was the first time Rajini openly participated in the political process, voicing against the corrupt regime of JJ.
Since then, he has been studying politics keenly. However, a decision to enter was not taken for reasons best known to him.

When JJ died, he saw opportunity to reset the fate of TN. His intentions seem to be great.
2. What will be Rajini's strengths?

A. Sharp organisational acumen, leadership, vision, deep intelligence, and astute character.

He has done a lot of homework and organisation build in the three years from 2017.
The Rulebook of Rajini Makkal Mandram reflects a robust organisational framework to kickstart his work at the booth level.

The structure, the rules, and the democratic processes of empowerment will protect him to an extent from undesired elements subverting his party.
This shows organisational and administrative acumen.

He has been studying the governance, political and social issues and thinking of solutions. His prep work is similar (in different ways) to the work done by @narendramodi long before he became the PM.
B. Motivated workforce who might transcend to cadres when inoculated* with the right policy intent

C. Superstar image which is a key influencer in TN politics. This is his most visible capital. His organisational and leadership skills are either hidden or are inferential.
D. His promises of clean governance, secular caste-free politics and the resultant HOPE he is giving to voters such as

i. Swing voters who always vote for a regime change

ii. Anti-incumbency or tired voters who want a radical change

iii. Anti-DMK voters who are tired of DMK's
lopsided ideologies, its family based political empire

iv. Gen X and Gen Y who just like exciting things in general

v. Voters who vote for caste-neutral leaders like MGR

vi. Voters who are generally enchanted by movie stars
E. Lack of a third front or alternative even though BJP has a strong organisation architect in @Murugan_TNBJP and a leader in @annamalai_k

BJP has delayed its goal of power capture. BJP is only aiming for four things this election.
i. Blocking DMK from coming to power

ii. Achieving double digit presence in the opposition bench or in administration

iii. Gaining as many Rajya Sabha seats from the 9 seats from TN

iv. Ensuring a govt in TN which will cooperate in implementing centre's schemes
BJP, @ikamalhaasan 's Makkal Niti Maiam and Seeman's Nam Tamizhar Katchi are the only three growth parties.

All others are sunset parties. Since these growing parties don't and won't get along, it's impossible for them to form a third front unless all of them join Rajini front.
F. Support of advisors and well wishers from all walks of life. His pick of Arjuna Murthy and Tamilaruvi Manian.

He also seeks and gains support of @sgurumurthy Ji.

I know personally that Rajini has an ability to thin-slice people and positions. He has remarkable intelligence.
It's highly likely that he will pick the right people for the rest of his party positions.

G. Rajini's campaign will be star-studded. The film industry will back him more than they support anyone else. Knowing TN's obsession with movie stars, this will be a great advantage.
Thread 2 - How will Rajini change the pitch?

3. How will Rajini change the pitch?

A. He will make the election multipolar unless he agrees to form an alliance with AIADMK. But that's not easy. AIADMK has declared EPS as CM candidate and this will be a constraint on Rajini.
Besides ideological challenges of 'clean and transparent politics' may not go well with Rajini joining hands with any Kazhagam

B. He will break the caste barriers which hitherto decided huge swings in certain areas like Western and Northern parts of TN.
I am not talking about communities who get regular ministers/ MLAs and MPs and reservation.

I am talking of those who fall through the cracks. I am not risking a speculation of percentages yet as this has a lot of ifs and buts.
C. DMK will rethink their approach. Much of the money paid to Prashanth Kishore Pandey will be towards stopping the leak from the party rather than gaining new grounds.

They will go on attack mode and will reset based on Rajini's response.
i. If Rajini ignores them like how JJ did, then DMK will continue their Goebbelsian tactics.

ii. If Rajini uses attack politics of offensive defence, then DMK will focus on breaking Rajini's credibility by raising the discovery questions - such as,
what has Rajini done for TN? What did he do for Hindus, considering his age and health, is he not fooling the public with false hope, and so on.

Subverters will be planted in MSM and SM disguised as genuine Rajini supporters who will raise these dying questions
iii. Using their influence in the movie industry, they will keep Rajini on his defence all the time

iv. They will recalibrate approach to AIADMK based on intelligence on Rajini's winnability

v. Fifth column within DMK will aide Rajini secretly as they don’t wish Stalin as CM
vi. DMK will do an all out war on all other fronts and will create riot like situations as the game has gotten tougher for them

vii. DMK will prompt Shashikala and TTV relaunch to split anti-DMK votes and to stop them from going to Rajini

~ but BJP has better plans for them
D. AIADMK will also rethink their approach


Thread 2 will cover approaches of AIADMK, BJP, other parties, VK Sashikala-TTV, M K Azhagiri.

Thread 3 will cover challenges @rajinikanth might face.

* inoculated, because they have gathered for a person, not an ideology.

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More from @BaluSreevidya

14 Dec

Counting is on 16 December.

Kerala's results for BJP will give sleepless nights for the conjoined Congress-Communist twins.


1. Like last time, RSS - which is the strongest in Kerala - played a key role on the ground

2. Good work at Booth level work, focus on critical mass for candidates, issue based approach for wards

3. Last time, BJP ate into Congress bastions, this time it will ALSO eat into Communist bastions

4. BJP has fielded 500 Xs and 112 Muslim candidates, a clear ward strategy
5. The struggles led by @surendranbjp have brought unexpected support from women who came to the streets to protest against the corrupt Communist government.

This is a clear signal of change in BJP's favour.
Read 4 tweets
9 Dec

For those who are interested in Kerala politics, specifically BJP's stance and chances, I am transcribing a Youtube Q&A with @surendranbjp BJP president, Kerala.

A vibrant and savvy politician, KS is the leader Kerala BJP supporters asked for.
He is an extremely sharp strategist who leads from the front - someone who sees the dance from the balcony and also perfects nuances on the floor.

This interview reflects his acumen, clarity of thoughts and candid approach to politics. A no-nonsense leader, he says a lot.
1. How is BJP aligning with RSS in Kerala?

BJP and RSS relationship is that of ideology and political outfit (I have discussed this in detail in a previous thread and KS's view supports my points) and is strong currently.

Covid relief work has brought us even closer.
Read 36 tweets
8 Dec
A few years ago, I heard a 27 year old young father and husband dying of heart-attack due to stress from work.

One of the key reforms I have recommended in the organised corporate sector is the Health and Wellbeing of employees.

~ 1/6
Workload setting, workflow setting, targets and KPIs should all be comparable to developed countries.

Indian private sector employee does 5 times the work of their corresponding employee in a developed market.

Yet while immigrating, India is not a 'comparable labour market'
Workload, flexibility of work hours, 5 days a week instead of 6 or 5.5 days, no 24 hour access to employees over mobile phones, 8 hour workday or shifts - there is so much to regulate.

It's a slog scenario in stark contrast with public sector where employees are protected.
Read 6 tweets
29 Nov
Why is BJP pushing so hard for GHMC?

As we all know, Dubakka victory is a surprise encouragement. But is that why the heavyweights have descended there?

Here are my views:

~ BJP has exposed the nexus between KCR and AIMIM
~ With a distant second representation in the GHMC, AIMIM has already created a strong politico-religious finance system to fund its activities that can go well beyond Hyderabad/Bhagya Nagar.

~ It has enough funding to expand AIMIM into becoming the new Congress.
~ What it does now is consolidating the hitherto Congress bloc vote.

~ AIMIM and Congress have got Rohingyas into Hyderabad in the exact way Pakistani muslims were brought to Kashmir and muslims from Jordan/ Morocco to Gaza. We know what that means.

Why is Hyderabad targeted?
Read 8 tweets
28 Nov
Kolahala Srinivas keeps raising this question of why @AmitShah did not endorse NDA alliance publicly despite EPS and OPS announcing it in the govt function.

He seems to speculate that @BJP4TamilNadu is waiting for Rajnikant to enter politics.

I disagree.

I had mentioned in my tweet prior to Amit Shah's visit that
he will NOT:

~ meet any actor
~ declare alliances/ allies

I had said that these were @JPNadda 's job and Shah will not undermine his Party President's role by openly declaring an alliance.
People should stop seeing Shah as BJP president. Nadda is well capable of managing this portfolio.

I had written a few months ago in Malayalam about how TN politics will be a bipolar one.

AIADMK is needed at the centre for the passing of difficult bills.
Read 4 tweets
27 Nov
Just marking my observations here. Careful read.

A few days ago, there was severe weather warning in the pacific region about huge water swell in the ocean.

Later there was warning of #NivarCyclone in the NE Indian Ocean, and Nivar swept across as predicted.
Over the last couple of days, over 120 whales and dolphins stranded on some New Zealand islands dead. Many had wounds as if from a blast.

Who did the underwater explosion if any, in deep ocean, what was the test?
In 2004, my husband and I were at the Marina beach in Madras on the eve of Tsunami. We saw a red Sumo circling around the beach and a group of people surveying the area.

We felt suspicious and alerted the Police.

Who were they? What were they doing hours before the Tsunami?
Read 7 tweets

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