Paper suggests death rates rose & fell mostly regardless of govt actions: “We are concerned that [previous] studies may substantially overstate the role of govt-mandated NPIs [non-pharmaceutical interventions] in reducing disease transmission due to an omitted variable bias”
Three possible “omitted variables”: 1. “Humans spontaneously take action to avoid disease transmission once an epidemic breaks out”, & this behaviour change is big & consistent enough to produce roughly the same decline in death rates at the same time everywhere...