There is currently a great deal of fear-mongering about Christmas visits in the UK. In order to assess the risk associated with a family or social visit within the rules, it is useful to consider some facts. The science is not exact but the orders of magnitude are secure (1/8)
Around 20%, possibly up to 30%, of infections are asymptomatic - the person will not know they have been infected. Around 80% of symptomatic infections are mild or moderate. They do not require a hospital admission (2/8)
The risks of serious illness and death increase with age - but most people recover. Estimates from the First Wave, published in Nature, suggest 30 deaths in 1000 infections (970 survivors) among 65-74 year olds and 116 (884 survivors) in 75+ year olds (3/8)
These odds have significantly improved in the Second Wave as a result of non-invasive ventilation and dexamethasone. They would improve even more if every patient who would benefit from dexamethasone actually got it (4/8)
As @BallouxFrancois has pointed out, viruses mutate all the time and there is no current evidence that the N501Y represents any special threat over and above the normal risks (5/8)
When you hear an NHS hospital consultant or nurse talking about the pressures, sympathise with their fatigue and distress but always remember that they are talking only about extreme cases. They are not seeing a representative sample of infections (6/8)
Nobody wants to infect another person or trivialise the serious cases of Covid - but an infection is not a death sentence, even for the oldest members of our society. Do not make decisions on that basis (7/8)
There is a balance to be struck between the physical and psychological costs of cancelling Christmas and the risks in specific events. Neither the government nor medical journals nor elite scientists can have the specific knowledge of your circumstances to assess your risks (8/8)

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More from @rwjdingwall

16 Dec
I am very concerned about the implicit ageism in a lot of the debate around Christmas - and more generally around Coivd-19 policy. Some highlights from @age_uk valuable overview of the lives of people over 65 (1/5) ageuk.org.uk/globalassets/a…
There are just under 12 million people in the UK aged over 65 - only 400,000 live in care homes. 93.5% of those aged 60-9 are not considered frail by official definitions. Even among the 90+group, 35% are not defined as frail (2/5)
24% of those over 50 in England report feeling lonely some of the time: 7% feel this often. Loneliness, social isolation, and living alone have all been associated with an increased risk of premature death. They are also thought to bring a 40% increase in risk of dementia (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
27 Nov
As a public health scientist, I think it is irresponsible to continue promoting fear and anxiety about the Covid-19 risks of Christmas when we cannot know the circumstances of every individual's life. (1/4)
I am 70 with no known co-morbidities. Several of my likely family visitors have already had Covid and recovered. They will still be largely immune from reinfection - risk is 1 in several million. I shall hug them freely. (2/4)
I have four grandchildren under 6. Children of this age represent a minimal risk. I shall hug them as freely as I have done all along because I think the value to each party exceeds the risk. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets

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