There is currently a great deal of fear-mongering about Christmas visits in the UK. In order to assess the risk associated with a family or social visit within the rules, it is useful to consider some facts. The science is not exact but the orders of magnitude are secure (1/8)
Around 20%, possibly up to 30%, of infections are asymptomatic - the person will not know they have been infected. Around 80% of symptomatic infections are mild or moderate. They do not require a hospital admission (2/8)
The risks of serious illness and death increase with age - but most people recover. Estimates from the First Wave, published in Nature, suggest 30 deaths in 1000 infections (970 survivors) among 65-74 year olds and 116 (884 survivors) in 75+ year olds (3/8)
These odds have significantly improved in the Second Wave as a result of non-invasive ventilation and dexamethasone. They would improve even more if every patient who would benefit from dexamethasone actually got it (4/8)
As @BallouxFrancois has pointed out, viruses mutate all the time and there is no current evidence that the N501Y represents any special threat over and above the normal risks (5/8)
When you hear an NHS hospital consultant or nurse talking about the pressures, sympathise with their fatigue and distress but always remember that they are talking only about extreme cases. They are not seeing a representative sample of infections (6/8)
Nobody wants to infect another person or trivialise the serious cases of Covid - but an infection is not a death sentence, even for the oldest members of our society. Do not make decisions on that basis (7/8)
There is a balance to be struck between the physical and psychological costs of cancelling Christmas and the risks in specific events. Neither the government nor medical journals nor elite scientists can have the specific knowledge of your circumstances to assess your risks (8/8)
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