I am very concerned about the implicit ageism in a lot of the debate around Christmas - and more generally around Coivd-19 policy. Some highlights from @age_uk valuable overview of the lives of people over 65 (1/5) ageuk.org.uk/globalassets/a…
There are just under 12 million people in the UK aged over 65 - only 400,000 live in care homes. 93.5% of those aged 60-9 are not considered frail by official definitions. Even among the 90+group, 35% are not defined as frail (2/5)
24% of those over 50 in England report feeling lonely some of the time: 7% feel this often. Loneliness, social isolation, and living alone have all been associated with an increased risk of premature death. They are also thought to bring a 40% increase in risk of dementia (3/5)
When you are considering the risks of Covid infection from a Christmas visit, you should also think about the resilience of the older people involved and about the potential harms (4/5)
Remember that older people have a right to make their own risk assessments as well. This is not a decision for middle-aged children, etc. to make for them, however well-meaning that decision may be (5/5)
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There is currently a great deal of fear-mongering about Christmas visits in the UK. In order to assess the risk associated with a family or social visit within the rules, it is useful to consider some facts. The science is not exact but the orders of magnitude are secure (1/8)
Around 20%, possibly up to 30%, of infections are asymptomatic - the person will not know they have been infected. Around 80% of symptomatic infections are mild or moderate. They do not require a hospital admission (2/8)
The risks of serious illness and death increase with age - but most people recover. Estimates from the First Wave, published in Nature, suggest 30 deaths in 1000 infections (970 survivors) among 65-74 year olds and 116 (884 survivors) in 75+ year olds (3/8)
As a public health scientist, I think it is irresponsible to continue promoting fear and anxiety about the Covid-19 risks of Christmas when we cannot know the circumstances of every individual's life. (1/4)
I am 70 with no known co-morbidities. Several of my likely family visitors have already had Covid and recovered. They will still be largely immune from reinfection - risk is 1 in several million. I shall hug them freely. (2/4)
I have four grandchildren under 6. Children of this age represent a minimal risk. I shall hug them as freely as I have done all along because I think the value to each party exceeds the risk. (3/4)