Dr. Fauci's timeline has 100 million getting vaccinated in the first 108 days (925,000/day), then 130 million getting vaccinated in the next 91 days (1.4 million/day). No one can explain how—as we get into the population hostile to vaccination—we'll be vaccinating 50% more daily.
(PS) We were previously told that vaccine shortages may appear in May/June because Trump didn't order enough vaccine. Now we're told May and June will see *50% more daily vaccinations* than the first 108 days. Sadly, no one is out front explaining such discrepancies to Americans.
(PS2) I hope the vaccine timeline goes as planned, and that 70% is in fact enough for herd immunity. But avid news-watchers are starting to see discrepancies in the rhetoric surrounding the timeline that no one is explaining, producing concern we're being sold a too-rosy picture.
(PS3) The level of community transmission we'll have when we finally start vaccinating the subset of Americans (1) actually spreading the virus, (2) willing to be vaccinated—a period that won't begin until April—is staggering. It's hard to see us at "low" numbers before mid-fall.
(PS4) Please understand that those of us questioning the vaccine timeline Fauci has laid out are very much *pro-Fauci* and *pro-vaccine*. We just want this administration to be transparent with Americans—to treat us like adults—about the many many many months of challenges ahead.
(PS5) I'm thrilled that media is slowly coming around to being more clear-eyed in their communications. Bill Gates now says normalcy will come in 2022 at the earliest. That message needs to be loud and clear, and replace all the focus on "late spring and early summer" we see now.
(PS6) The reason this matters is that when Dr. Fauci said America would achieve herd immunity by the end of Q2 (i.e. end of June), it risked encouraging many Americans to relax, and certainly encouraged media to launch a thousand highly misleading "we're nearing the end" stories.
(PS7) By comparison, if Americans were told—as appears, by every measure, to be correct—that nearly all of 2021 will comprise the greatest public health battle in U.S. history, and that 2022 will see a gradual return to normalcy, it'd put us on the "war footing" we need to be on.

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More from @SethAbramson

16 Dec
QAnon is an ARG (Alternate Reality Game). It was set up that way and is managed that way. QAnoners are playing an ARG and refuse to stop for the very reason transreality gaming can be hazardous: you can forget what's game and what's reality. QAnoners are lost in a dangerous game.
The reason this matters is that Trump and his agents aim to expand the gamification of reality beyond the confines of QAnon's ARG mythology. Now they're turning the finding of evidence of "election fraud" into a transreality game with its own mythology. All of this is dangerous.
When we think of the far right as a space of "fake news" rather than the gamification of reality, we falsely accept the notion that Trumpists are interested in news. They're not. They're interested in tailored escapism, and in redefining reality as a mythology they can live with.
Read 15 tweets
14 Dec
235 million must be vaccinated for us to have a shot at herd immunity. Biden says we can vaccinate 1 million daily. The vaccine takes 30 days to have full effect. Herd immunity is therefore impossible until 8+ months from now.

What is Fauci talking about? nbcnews.com/news/us-news/f…
(PS) My last tweet laid out *none* of the obstacles that would make even that 8+ month timeline impossible—like vaccine shortages, people not returning for the second shot, resistance to getting vaccinated, logistical hurdles at the state level. Again—what is Fauci talking about?
(UPDATE) Reuters and the government confirm that at *best* we can vaccinate 1 million/day. Reuters reports that 109 days from now, we'll have 100 million people vaccinated. The idea we can have 235+ million vaccinated in well under 200 days makes no sense. google.com/amp/s/www.usne…
Read 4 tweets
14 Dec
UPDATE: I said that Dallas' "Allied Security Operations Group"—behind the disinformation-fueled attack on Michigan's certification for Biden—would be traced to Flynn.

Well, one of the men who headed it until days ago "served as an intelligence operations leader under DIA Flynn."
PS: So Trump *pardoned* Michael Flynn *in the midst of* a longtime Flynn associate being part of the management of an entity working to undermine Biden's win in Michigan—and found by Michigan officials to have lied about elections data. Cybersecurity-scam-for-pardon bribery case?
PS2: What I'm not sure of yet is whether any Michael Flynn associates/Donald Trump mega-donors in Dallas—where Allied Security Operations Group is headquartered—were paying ASOG to conduct this "research" or urged Kraft's name to be removed from ASOG to hide the linkage to Flynn.
Read 12 tweets
14 Dec
BREAKING: Trump Agent Stephen Miller Says Fraudulent Trump Electors Will Continue to Claim Trump Is the Rightful President Through *At Least January 20*—2 Weeks *After* Congress Votes to Accept Biden's Legally Valid Battleground-State Electors on January 6 thedailybeast.com/brian-kilmeade…
You may recall that I expressed significant alarm over former CNN analyst and current Trump campaign official Steve Cortes claiming in a Twitter-posted video that the Trump campaign considers *January 20, 2021* the only significant date with respect to electors.

Now we know why.
The reason this is significant is that it means the Trump campaign does not consider the decision of Congress on January 6, 2021 to be the final word on who will be the next President of the United States—even though by *statute and Constitution* it is. This is a seditious claim.
Read 4 tweets
14 Dec
18 USC § 2385 criminalizes "organizing any assembly of persons who advocate the overthrow of the government by force"—and distinguishes "force" from "violence."

The White House has organized fraudulent electors to block the democratically elected government from taking office.
(PS) I can't ascertain the scope of the word "force" in this statute (except that we can be statutorily sure it does *not* mean "violence") but creating a scenario—contra a Supreme Court ruling—in which there could be a hostile standoff at the White House on Jan. 20 may well fit.
(PS2) As a lawyer I'd tend to interpret "force" as meaning "unlawful compulsion short of violence" when it appears in a statute that deals with violence as a separate category. An unlawful attempt to retain the White House contra SCOTUS would be "force" under this interpretation.
Read 22 tweets
13 Dec
COVID-19 reporting is getting looser, shoddier, and more confusing.

Example: actual number of Americans who will be vaccinated for COVID-19 in 2020: 0.

Vaccination isn't complete until you receive a second injection 21 days after the first, which no one will prior to next year.
Excitement over the vaccine produces misleading reports.

Example: Fauci says "open season" for the vaccine will begin in April—implying that anyone who wants it will be able to get it then.

In fact there's no plan to vaccinate more than a million people—0.3% of Americans—daily.
There's a hyperbolic optimism to much vaccine rhetoric I find unnerving.

Example: Biden has an ambitious plan to vaccinate 100 million people by April 20—which means full efficacy for those vaccinations by May 20. Good! But that's only 30% of America. Herd immunity requires 70%.
Read 16 tweets

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