Some thoughts on the debate over the UK Xmas rona regulations. First of all, public opinion is ostensibly against relaxation, which gives the government some wriggle room. 57% say the tier system should remain in place over the festive period. Interesting. 1/8
2/8 I suspect this is the politically correct answer to pollsters and that a proportion of people who oppose the non-disty Christy *would* meet up with people outside their bubble if the government continues to say that it is ok. But they kind of hope they'll be *told* it's not.
3/8 Here's the thing. These decisions are actually very difficult. My father is 84, has advanced Parkinson's. My father-in-law is 88, profoundly deaf, and on his own. I don't want them put at risk, but I don't want them isolated at Christmas.
4/8 Many people will be involved in fairly agonised discussions. Old and vulnerable folk who are reticent about meeting. Families unsure how far to push them. Old and vulnerable people who are keen. Families not sure how to tell them no.
5/8 So the attitude of the government here is critical. It gives people permission to hold the Christmas celebrations. But just as importantly, it gives people permission *not* to go ahead.
6/8 I think the big problem with changing direction now that it is another example of the goalposts moving from week to week. People are pretty sick of that. Also, many will have made plans involving travel. Perhaps committed cash to the celebrations.
7/8 I got the impression from the get-go that Scotland and Wales went into the Xmas relaxations somewhat reluctantly. You could read that from the awkward pronouncements and body language of Sturgeon and Drakeford. Boris and Arlene keener.
8/8 At least, however, there was some superficial agreement in a pandemic which has constantly divided the nations of the UK. Are we going to see that unanimity evaporate before the Yuletide turkey is even on the table?

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More from @philwoodford

16 Dec
Ok, I know I'm going to stir up some controversy here and probably should live the quite life, but here goes. I think that when we come to write the history of the Covid pandemic, many of the trite assumptions of the first six, eight, ten months may prove to be myths. 1/15
2/15 We heard a lot about Germany and South Korea, for instance. If only we'd followed their example, we'd have done so much better. Today, ICU beds in Seoul are near capacity. Lockdown looms for the first time. edition.cnn.com/2020/12/16/asi…
3/15 The German response has been hampered by the country's federal political structure - laissez-faire Länder resisting more stringent lockdown measures proposed by Merkel's government. Now, hundreds of deaths a day. theguardian.com/world/2020/dec…
Read 16 tweets
17 Sep
It's important to keep watching the Trump presidential campaign and the deranged incumbent's pronouncements. In his Twitter feed, there is an ever-increasing emphasis on the fact that any election result cannot be trusted and that the result may never be clear. 1/7
2/7 I think the calculation in the Trump camp is that the election is already lost because of Covid and the economic slump. They must have a lot of private polling from the swing states suggesting that scraping a win in the electoral college is now a real long shot.
3/7 They'll throw all they can at Biden. He's Sleepy Joe, who's never let out of the basement. He's in the grip of the hard left. Harris is the real power behind the throne. And a vote for the Democrats is a vote for Antifa and anarchy. But they know it won't be enough.
Read 7 tweets
26 Jul
I think the decision to abruptly reverse the air corridor to Spain will be another turning point for trust in the government. It seems strange to draw a parallel with Dominic Cummings, but at a psychological level, these issues are related. 1/10
2/10 Behavioural scientists talked about the issue of equity at the time of the Barnard Castle affair. We obey the rules because we believe - perhaps naively - that they apply equally to everyone. When it's clear they don't, we feel anger and resentment. Trust has broken down.
3/10 A slightly different thing is happening with the quarantine rules, but it's clearly connected. People flew out to Spain having been told they *wouldn't* have to self-isolate on return. They are now being told that the goalposts have shifted and will resent it.
Read 10 tweets
29 Jun
Parallels with the 1980s are always front of mind with @UKLabour's predicament. When Kinnock took over in 1983, he had broad support from sections of the left, but he soon ran into conflict with the hardliners. The media labelled them as the 'loony left'. 1/20
2/20 This notorious faction had a strong foothold in local government - particularly in London (Ken Livingstone's GLC, Ted Knight's Lambeth etc) - and pursued policies that would be instantly familiar to young Corbynistas now.
3/20 The formula was opposition to all cuts (the word for austerity in the 80s) to the point of defying the law; opposition to nuclear weapons; support for liberation struggles; for leftist regimes around the world; an obsession with Ireland, Palestine and socialist Nicaragua.
Read 20 tweets
28 May
Some more thoughts on the bizarre track and trace scheme. Following discussion on Twitter last night, I now realise that the contact tracer will not tell you who has given them your number or email. That is the credibility of the system shot to pieces right away. 1/8
2/8 Who will self isolate for 14 days on the basis a stranger has called them up and informed them that *another* stranger has named them? The contact tracers will quickly find the patience of the people they’re calling wearing very thin.
3/8 But there’s another weird twist. If you’re the Covid patient, *you* are encouraged to tell the people you’re listing that you’ve done it. So they are ‘prepared’ when the contact tracer gets in touch.
Read 8 tweets
16 Jan
We all remember RLB's extraordinary launch article in Tribune. Now it's time to dive into her latest polemic in The Guardian which outlines the 'path to power'. She's straight in there. First para: 'The next Labour leadership team must not junk our values...' THREAD 1/17
2/17 When she says 'our' here, Wrong-Daily might mean the values of @UKLabour as a whole. Those of Attlee, Wilson, Callaghan and Blair. But we know the values she refers to are actually those of the retro hard-left clique that seized control of the party in 2015.
3/17 'We must plot our path to power...' This is an incredibly odd turn of phrase to use in a public appeal in a national newspaper. The language conjures up images of Machiavelli. Hardly a way to start building a rapport with wavering members, let alone the wider electorate.
Read 17 tweets

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