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Taylor Pearson

@TaylorPearsonMe

10 Dec

1/ I think Goodhart’s Law is one of the most underappreciated ideas I know

The law itself is simple: when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.

2/ For example, when most people buying/renting a house or a condo, the internet search order goes something like:

1) Pick the location
2) Pick the price range
3) Pick the square footage/nr of bedrooms
4) Finally, bring in other parameters, such as a garden, backyard, etc.

3/ However, this obscures important factors: My current apartment has far more natural light and higher ceilings than my previous place but it’s cheaper because it has fewer square feet.

Read 24 tweets

Taylor Pearson

@TaylorPearsonMe

28 Oct

1/ A thread on what theories of guerilla warfare, college football, and running a company have in common.

2/ Let’s start with football (of the American variety). Generally, the way that the game is played is that there is a head coach along with an offensive and defensive coordinator.

3/ Generally, the coordinators are watching the games from the sidelines (or the box) and will call in specific plays to the offense and defense respectively.

These plays are generally “fixed.”

Read 25 tweets

Taylor Pearson

@TaylorPearsonMe

20 Oct

Over the years, I've tried to keep a list of criteria for deciding on whether to take on a project.

Here are the 9 questions I ask myself now

1. If you didn’t make any money, would you still have had a great time?

2. Is the project a purple cow? Imagine having a conversation at the last cocktail party (or even better, actually have one) do people’s eyebrows raise and say “cool"

Read 10 tweets

Taylor Pearson

@TaylorPearsonMe

10 Sep

1/ The investment management business is turning into the media business, but most investment managers don't realize it.

2/ This is a natural result of aggregation theory (stratechery.com/aggregation-th…) applying itself to the investment management business.

3/ On the internet, attention is scarce and anyone that can aggregate a specific type of attention will be able to aggregate that and "match" it with investment management.

Read 11 tweets

Taylor Pearson

@TaylorPearsonMe

9 Sep

Thought-provoking interview on how American politics really works and how elections are really won.

nymag.com/intelligencer/…

Some of my favorite bits 👇

Voters have a few radical views that they are the most passionate about so candidates tend to be more radical than people that vote for them

Whatever issues are getting most talked about is what people end up voting on.

"In 2012, both sides talked about health care. In 2016, they didn’t. And so the correlation between views on health care and which candidate people voted for went down."

Read 6 tweets

Taylor Pearson

@TaylorPearsonMe

4 Sep

I believe for most investors, the easiest way to improve their risk-adjusted returns is not to get better at "picking winners" but to get better at diversification and portfolio construction.

A short 🧵 on why that is and how to do it...

As a simple example, let’s say you have the ability to buy two assets out of a possible three choices.

The first two assets (Asset A and Asset B) have positive returns but are highly correlated; they track one another and the business cycle. Both do well when markets are up and poorly when markets are down.

Read 23 tweets

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