SEVERE multiple expansion in software since COVID -

Key question - will multiples mean revert?

H/t @jaminball
IMHO multiples expanded post COVID due to -

i) TINA - when most of the economy was in lockdown, SaaS was one of the industries which was still growing

ii) Fund managers sold the risky stocks and piled into SaaS to protect capital/show performance

When the economy reopens...
... capital will go back to the beaten down cyclicals which were crushed by the pandemic (this process has already begun) and at some point, valuations for the entire market will normalise.

Finally, when Fed stops buying assets, high multiple names may be especially vulnerable.
For my part, I've significantly reduced my enterprise software exposure from ~50% to 20% of my portfolio.

I've been investing in int'l growth stocks which appear to be trading at modest valuations $OZON $YNDX

With 30/40/50/100X sales multiples, future returns likely to be low.

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More from @saxena_puru

13 Dec
In spring/summer/autumn, when I suggested we were in a young bull market, most were still unsure and fearful. Many hot growth stocks were also way lower.

Over the past 4-6 weeks, sentiment has become euphoric, many IPOs have tripled in a matter of weeks, $ABNB has doubled...
...in a day, $DASH has almost doubled in a day, dozens of IPOs/SPACs have come to market, 20yr olds have put up hundreds of videos on TikTok and YouTube recommending hyper growth stocks, people I know have given up their jobs to become day traders and valuations have risen a LOT!
So, the situation has changed quite a lot and I'd be crazy not to recognise these changes.

To be clear, I am not suggesting the party must end tomorrow. If history is any guide, the show will probably go on until the Fed keeps expanding its balance sheet.

Finally, I dont...
Read 7 tweets
13 Dec
The best long-term investment returns are generated when an unloved (almost hated) asset or sector comes out of a decade long bear-market.

US stocks in '82 or '13
Commodities in '00
EMs in '03

The dogs of the past decade likely to do well over the next 10-15 years.
By the time a story is fully understood, its usually too late.

Investors loved US stocks in the late 60s, they loved commodities in the late 70s, they loved Japan in the late 80s, they loved TMT in the late 90s and they loved commodities/EMs in late 00s.

How did that turn out?
A number of the shiny/growth stocks have tripled or even quadrupled since March!

The question to ask is "have their operating results tripled or quadrupled over that period"?

NO, they haven't. These stocks have rallied due to COVID fear and multi-expansion. Worth remembering.
Read 6 tweets
7 Dec
During the TMT bubble, each tech stock peaked when its valuation peaked (not when its revenue growth peaked).

The Fed is currently super easy but with valuations extremely stretched for many COVID beneficiaries, the reopening of the economy *might* be a risk for these stocks.
For my part, I've been reducing my enterprise software exposure and have already brought it down from ~50% to just under 30% of my portfolio.

If valuations stretch further, will reduce even more.
Clarification -

Enterprise software with its recurring revenues is a fantastic business and many of these companies will continue to grow for a very long time and power global businesses.

However, their current market caps appear quite bloated relative to their revenues...
Read 4 tweets
3 Dec
Those who missed the entire run in the highest quality growth stocks can no longer stand the fact that these names keep going higher (on the back of outstanding business growth).

The name calling and snide comments reaching a whole new level now! Sorry you missed the run....
When I first became active on Twitter (Feb '19), the wise people called me a moron for only owning the 'momo', 'overvalued', 'bubble' names!

The crash occurred in March and guess what? My stocks bounced back first and went on to make new highs - some even tripled..
....or quadrupled within months.

Most of my companies have continued to announce outstanding operating results and they are still being bid up by the market.

Meanwhile, I'm still being trolled as the momo guy who got lucky and will soon learn a lesson!
Read 5 tweets
3 Dec
Narrative - Rising 10-yr UST yield is bad for growth stocks

Reality - $IWO positively correlated with 10-yr UST yield
History shows that rising long-term rates from such low levels are POSITIVE for growth stocks/risk assets.

Conversely, falling long-term rates are NEGATIVE for growth stocks/risk assets.

Rising rates imply the bond market is becoming less worried about the economic outlook.
This chart goes back ***20 YEARS***

$IWO = positive correlation with 10-yr UST yield

Facts/reality > narratives
Read 4 tweets
30 Nov
1) Portfolio summary - Nov-end

$ADYEY $AFTPY $CRWD $DAO $DDOG $DKNG $DOCU $FUBO $LSPD $MELI $OKTA $PINS $PLTR $ROKU $SE $SHOP $SNAP $SNOW $SQ $STNE $TWLO $U $UBER $VRM

Return since 1 Sept 2016 -

Portfolio +471.83%
$ACWI +50.46%
$SPX +67.46%
2) CAGR since inception (1 Sept 2016) -

Portfolio +51.91%
$ACWI +10.29%
$SPX +13.18%

YTD return -

Portfolio +311.08%
$ACWI +10.25%
$SPX +12.10%

Contd...
3) Biggest positions -

1) $MELI 2) $ROKU 3) $PLTR 4) $SE 5) $PINS

Buys - $AFTPY $FUBO $LSPD $SNAP $STNE $UBER
Sells - $AYX $BABA $FROG $FVRR $GDRX $ZM

Contd...
Read 13 tweets

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