1/8 I was listening to Sam Hinkie episode today at @InvestLikeBest, and paused here for a while.
Writing is not only one of the best leverage tools in the age of internet, it is also a great way to talk to yourself across time without the biases of selective memories.
2/8 One of the things that excites me most about building "MBI Deep Dives" is the trail of deep dives I will hopefully be writing in the next 5-10 years.
Will I be able to spot some of the big winners? Can I identify the long-term losers?
3/8 I will most certainly miss some of the big winners. I would love to figure out if there is a particular pattern among the companies I miss.
Will there be anything that I can do to reduce my errors of omission?
4/8 When you write 6-8k worded piece/essay on a company, it leaves a solid trail not only for others to praise/lambaste you in future but also a robust foundation for YOU to work on your process for the next 10 years.
5/8 A friend (works on buy-side) recently asked me what my investment philosophy is.
I told him I can tell you what I know you want to hear or find acceptable.
But perhaps the truth is I am still searching for it.
6/8 I'll understand my investing philosophy much better in a three-year (or longer) extended downturn in the market.
It's easy to play the GARP/NeverSell/Hold-your-winners (you name it) game in a bull market.
My philosophy/character will be revealed in an extended bear market.
7/8 So much of investing is just a game of knowing who you are and what you can stick to than forecasting cash flows next year that it's mind boggling.
And it's much harder to figure out until you experience it.
8/8 That's where writing can help a LOT..
It's easy to forget the bear market blues when you are in bull market, and vice versa.
But once you put it in writing, it's there in plain writing how you thought about it when you are in the thick of it. You cannot pretend otherwise.
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I ran a poll yesterday here asking the following question:
"What level of IRR would you be happy/satisfied with 10 years from now for your portfolio?"
~3k people responded, and ~54% of them said >10%.
2/9 I thought it was surprising that people are still expecting >10% IRR when ~$20 trillion bonds are trading at negative yield.
I understand people might have interpreted the question differently. Some might be "okay" with 7-8%, but would require >10% to be "happy".
3/9 At one hand, permabulls might be just extrapolating the recent equity returns. The narrative of roaring 20s has perhaps been permanently imprinted in their minds.
Danny Meyer is the founder and CEO of Union Square Hospitality Group as well as the founder and Chairman of $SHAK.
Here are my notes.
2/7 How do you make a restaurant a favorite one?
"We had to make you feel like we were on your side, which is hospitality, but then to take it a step further, we had to really make you feel like you belonged."
3/7 ABCD =Always Be Collecting Dots.
The desire to belong really resonates.
I found out fintwit last year. I used to lurk around here a lot, and thought this is SO cool. I wished I could be part of fintwit community. And I just started writing, and never stopped.
This one is packed with meaty insights. I wish it were a longer episode. At the very least, I hope @patrick_oshag invites Dan again.
Here are my notes.
2/ Asking people about their opinions on certain movies can reveal a lot about them. It's a fun, relaxing way to get to the answer you want to know, but much more difficult to ask in a direct manner.
3/ This is a simple point, but I have been surprised before how few people get it.
In creative pursuits, the delta between median and the peak is astonishingly large. It also means if you are slightly better than others in these pursuits, the convexity leads you to win big.
"Can you imagine a better way to destroy social mobility than by telling poor kids that the way to get rich is by exploiting people, while the rich kids know, from having watched the preceding generation do it, how it's really done?"
I know many people would take issue with such assertion, but it is one of those narratives that even if you think it is false, you are more likely to be benefited by believing in it than otherwise.
3/5 Having brought up in a family with all sorts of simplistic teachings e.g. "just be good in your academics, and you'll shine in life", I have come to appreciate the power of simple narratives.