This is why we need both sequencing of circulating sars2 virus and extensive testing and contact tracing. It will help to figure out whether the faster spread of a particular variant is due to a new set of mutations or due to a superspreading event. washingtonpost.com/health/british…
There’s a reason why superspreading events are called superspreading events. The spread is explosive, reaching beyond the event itself into new communities and infecting dozens of people who didn’t even attend the event. washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/12…
“A new analysis of the Biogen event at a Boston hotel has concluded that the coronavirus strains loosed at the meeting have since migrated worldwide, infecting about 245,000 Americans — and potentially as many as 300,000 — by the end of October.”
When we hear about a new sars2 variant spreading faster, the investigators have a lot of work cut out for them. They have to sequence virus isolates widely and test+trace cases to see if the faster spread is actually (likely) due to superspreading events or due to a new mutation.
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@USRightToKnow sets the context for some of the emails (doc 1, p963) that relate to a discussion by top experts on 3 Feb 2020, convened by NASEM to inform White House OSTP.
Questions I have on top of those raised by @sai_suryan in the USRTK article...
From the first draft of the letter, where it states the initial view of the experts is that SARS2 genomic data are consistent with natural evolution, there is a footnote (5) saying "possibly add brief explanation that this does not preclude an unintentional release from a lab..."
Thank you @franciscodeasis for the heads up on this article. I'm also interested to see where this article will be published (preprinted on June 22): biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
I went to look for declaration(s) of competing/conflicts of interests, but there are none.
Reminder: this is totally fine, but it would be more reassuring if the peer reviews were co-published with the paper.
Analysis by @edyong209@TheAtlantic of the impact of the pandemic on how science is done.
I'm reading it from the POV of one of "Thousands of researchers dropped whatever intellectual puzzles had previously consumed their curiosity and began working on the pandemic instead."
People have asked me why I'm so obsessed with understanding the origins of SARS-CoV-2/covid.
My answer: How could I not be?
A virus pops out of nowhere and the entire world is put out of order. This is, hopefully, the pandemic of our lifetime.
Quote: Ebola and Zika each prompted a temporary burst of funding and publications. But “nothing in history was even close to the level of pivoting that’s happening right now,” Madhukar Pai of McGill University told (Ed Yong)... “It hit us at home” theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…
On more stories that keep evolving... remember when it was first officially revealed by the WIV that RaTG13, the closest related virus genome to SARS-CoV-2, was actually the same as bat CoV 4991 published in 2016? sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/t…
Turns out it wasn't "some random bat virus that is more distant" - in their Nov 17 @nature addendum, Shi clarified RaTG13 was 1 of 9 SARSrCoVs from a mine where people sickened with severe respiratory disease; "suspected.. infected by an unknown virus." nature.com/articles/s4158…
So how does this match with what is in the @ScienceMagazine interview Q&A from July?
"I guess you are referring to the bat cave in Tongguan town in Mojiang county of Yunnan Province. To date, none of nearby residents is infected with coronaviruses."
Re-telling of covid's origin story in @guardian today misses key points about the whistleblowers, the seafood market, test kit and vaccine development in China, and publication of the first SARS-CoV-2 genome. I'll add them back into the story... theguardian.com/world/2020/dec…
Dec 30 2019 @guardian "Wuhan municipal health commission had issued an “urgent notice” online, warning all medical facilities to be on the alert" @BBC Dr. Li Wenliang "sent a message to fellow doctors in a chat group warning them about the outbreak" bbc.com/news/world-asi…
@WSJ Dec 31/Jan 1 - Huanan seafood market completely sanitized and shutdown. China CDC collected hundreds of samples from animals at the market and the environment. wsj.com/articles/china…
Opinion @DavidQuammen "(spillover) generally happens when we intrude upon bats in their habitats, excavating their guano for fertilizer, capturing them, killing them or transporting them live to markets, or otherwise initiating a disruptive interaction." nytimes.com/2020/12/11/opi…
It's important to pinpoint what these disruptive interactions are, which could include dozens of scientists sampling viruses in hard-to-reach habitats; see recent interview @DavidQuammen "We were not wearing what they called personal protective equipment.. npr.org/transcripts/80…
.. I asked Alexis, why the hell are we not? And he was just sort of fatalistic about it. He says there are constraints when you're wearing (PPE).. it's my judgment that the danger here is low enough that I'm not wearing a mask.. not recommending.. anybody else wear one either"