Three points on the whole “ramping up pressure” fallacy (thread) telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/…
1) I am not sure “we’ll send MPs home, they can always be recalled if there’s a deal” is very much a statement of anything except letting MPs have a holiday, which, given the time of year, is not all that unexepcted.
2) We’ve repeatedly read stories how the EU likes to run down the clock thereby exerting pressure on its negotiating partner. Certainly both cannot be true.
3) The time pressure on BOTH sides is very real. Given the flexibility of UK procedures, I’d say the worry is more on the EU ratification side (Council, national constitutional limits, promises made to the EP).
Bonus point: it is December 17. If we are not unexpectedly hit by a surprise holiday in the second half of December that leaves two weeks for a deal.

None of the sides will gain a strategic advantage by a surprise declaration that there might be Christmas in between.

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More from @hhesterm

15 Dec
Curiously Erasmus+ covers NZ, Canada, Australia, the US, Brazil etc.
That said: The UK has a strong university sector. Particularly the big names have strong connections worldwide. That definitely applies to KCL.
But please refrain from commenting something something global Britain. Your fictional idea of global glory is not an existing global program.
Read 5 tweets
10 Dec
The President's amicus brief in the Texas case before the Supreme Court. It is insane. (short thread) supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/22/2…
First of all it literally says that a violation of state election law is automatically a violation of the constitution and hence a matter for the federal courts. And that's not the insane part.
The insane part is that its substantive argument starts off with a survey showing that a significant part of the population think the election was stolen and argues things like he's won Ohio and Florida, hence he cannot have lost the states at issue. How crazy.
Read 5 tweets
6 Dec
I feel I owe an apology to the Guardian and to @danielboffey . Not because I think I'm wrong - the wording of the clause is in the thread, I think I characterize it correctly - but because journalists do a tough job here and I was too harsh /1
This is technical stuff. Journalists have to rely on what they get and what they hear. If they get briefed a certain way, that's what they have. None of them have ever gone into the business to report on the difference between dynamic alignment and ratchet clauses.
And so I apologize. The description of the ratchet clause in the article is wrong - I stand by what I wrote factually, but that's bound to happen in today's world of how journalists are briefed and it's not embarrassing.
Read 4 tweets
6 Dec
The Guardian embarrassingly gets the EU demands on level-playing field wrong.
At this stage, that is quite embarrassing. So - what is this about? (Thread)
Let's start with what's in the article: "The talks are now going to the wire on the so-called “ratchet clause”"
So what is the ratchet clause? According to the article?
@danielboffey writes: "under which the UK government would have to follow EU environmental, social and labour standards as they develop over time or face tariffs on British exports."
That is WRONG. What is the ratchet clause?
Read 9 tweets
5 Dec
Two observations on public awareness of the Brexit debate and their impact on what can be done. (Thread)
1) The public - even an expert legal public - is not aware just how broad FTAs have become. /2
This includes enormously qualified outstanding lawyers - including judges in apex courts. International law already is a specialized field, international trade law is a specialty within a specialty. /3
Read 7 tweets
4 Dec
Sovereignty as a dual-use weapon. A very short thread. Sovereignty is again much talked about regarding the EU-UK deal. /1
But (as previously discussed) sovereignty is a poor fit for detail (and detail is not really published nor do a lot of people do that sort of thing). E.g. enforcement is about sovereignty, yes, but every FTA and indeed many other agreements have enforcement provisions. /2
So "sovereignty" is short-hand for "we want less in that regard" (because "we want none" would mean that the UK would have to get out of the WTO and all of its new FTAs, so I don't think anyone means "we want none").
Read 5 tweets

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