Thread by @Noahpinion

My guess: After 2012 the big fear was that Hispanics would be a permanent Dem constituency. That fear should have put Rubio in charge of the GOP; instead it lead to the Trumpian backlash. Now, Trump's gains with Hispanics have reassured them...

https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1339620461106372615

This type of partisan fear -- that immigration represents vote-importing by the other party, and will lead to permanent demographic drowning at the ballot box -- is a very old phenomenon in American society.

https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1082042347888685056

You might say that this is one of the constants of American politics. Immigrants and their kids tend to vote more for one party than the other. This raises fears of demographic drowning among the other party, which then seeks to restrict immigration...

...And this also seems to activate whatever culture-war issues are foremost in people's minds at the time. That's why Hispanics voting so strongly against Romney triggered Republicans' fear of Black power.

After 2012, Republicans became afraid that neverending Hispanic immigration would give Democrats a permanent electoral majority that they would then use to A) uphold Black power, and and B) subjugate the religious right.

claremontreviewofbooks.com/digital/the-fl…

In 2015-16 I interpreted the GOP backlash against immigration as straight-up xenophobia. I now believe I was wrong. I now think that it was Republican fear that the Hispanic vote would mean a permanent loss in the Culture Wars.

Of course, Republican demographic fears were overblown even at the time, because Mexican immigration had already halted and gone into reverse by 2012, and Hispanic fertility rates had already plummeted...but Republicans didn't realize that.

Now Trump's broad-based gains among Hispanics in 2020 seem to have reassured some Republicans that the fear of demographic drowning was overblown, and that Hispanics will follow the same path as the Irish and Italians before them.

https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1339605205877284870

It's far too early to tell if that will actually happen. I'm certainly not willing to make a prediction.

But I will say this: The less that Republicans are afraid that immigration represents a political-demographic threat, the less pressure on them to get Even Crazier.

Obviously the GOP is now at a very very high level of Crazy. But hopefully, with the fear of political-demographic drowning starting to ebb, the wellspring of Crazy will run dry, and the Crazy will subside to a lower level...

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