Good news.

A similar thing happened during the smallpox eradication program: a new applicator device, the “bifurcated needle”, used 1/4 the vaccine, and thus 4x'ed the supplies.
Close-up of a bifurcated needle, holding a drop of smallpox vaccine.

D. A. Henderson, who led the eradication program, made an award for his team called the “Order of the Bifurcated Needle.” His daughter made a patch showing the points of the needle bent into a zero.
The full smallpox story here: rootsofprogress.org/smallpox-and-v…

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More from @jasoncrawford

17 Dec
If you want a single, vivid, and frankly disgusting example to hold in mind to remember how much our lives have improved over the last ~150 years…

Consider *shit*.

Literally, excrement. How much previous generations had to think about it, be around it, even handle it:
Before the automobile, horses flooded the streets, and cities were mired in their muck. According to Richard Rhodes, in NYC, horses dropped 4 million pounds of manure and 100 thousand gallons of urine on the streets every *day*. (!)
And Robert Gordon quotes this passage from *The Horse in the City*. “On New York’s Liberty Street there was a manure heap seven feet high.”

Shoveling shit was literally a full-time job. And one of the key uses of horses was to pull the wagons that carried away horse droppings.
Read 21 tweets
1 Dec
Today Google @DeepMind announced that their deep learning system AlphaFold has achieved unprecedented levels of accuracy on the “protein folding problem”, a grand challenge problem in computational biochemistry.

What is this problem, and why is it hard?

deepmind.com/blog/article/a…
I spent a couple years on this problem in a junior role in the early days of @DEShawResearch, so it's close to my heart. DESRES (as we called it internally) took an approach of building a specialized supercomputing architecture, called Anton: Image
Proteins are long chains of amino acids. Your DNA encodes these sequences, and RNA helps manufacture proteins according to this genetic blueprint.

Proteins are synthesized as linear chains, but they don't stay that way. They fold up in to complex, globular shapes. Image
Read 30 tweets
9 Nov
The 300-year history of vaccines as app updates:
~1720

v0.1 (beta): Inoculation

Features:
• Grants immunity
• Usually doesn't kill you

Known bugs:
• Mild disease symptoms
• You're still contagious and can start an outbreak

Supported platforms:
• Smallpox
1796

v1.0: Vaccination! Using new cowpox-based technology

Fixed:
• Doesn't kill you or start outbreaks
• Milder symptoms

Bugs:
• Immunity is temporary (booster shot upgrade packs required)

Supported:
• *Still* only smallpox
Read 8 tweets
24 Oct
Everyone knows that correlation is not causation.

Many people don't know that in scientific jargon, “predict” and “explain” are *also* not causation. They are forms of correlation.

These terms can cause extreme miscommunication.
(Technically, “association” might be a better term than “correlation”, which can have a narrower technical meaning in statistics. But since I'm writing this for non-experts, I'm going to use the term “correlation” in the colloquial, wider sense.)
In lay usage, “X predicts Y” implies that X comes *before* Y. Predictions are about the future.

In statistics, there is no time implication at all. It is just a type of correlation.
Read 8 tweets
24 Oct
This is a pretty bald-faced admission from a @washingtonpost editor: “journalism, particularly at the highest level, is about raw power.” cjr.org/public_editor/…
I mean, @elonmusk decides he doesn't need a PR department, and this guy's reaction is: “this is about power. We need to take some back.” Literally—that is a quote from the piece.
“All I know is that there is only one way the press maintains its power in society: By metaphorically putting the heads of powerful people on pikes.”

Wow.
Read 5 tweets
24 Oct
🤔
This is from theatlantic.com/family/archive…

Yes, I suppose if you cherry-pick your starting point, and assume that a change of any size is significant, you can interpret a flat line as a “trend”.
I didn't go find my own data, by the way, I literally just clicked the link in the article.
Read 10 tweets

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