A similar thing happened during the smallpox eradication program: a new applicator device, the “bifurcated needle”, used 1/4 the vaccine, and thus 4x'ed the supplies.
Close-up of a bifurcated needle, holding a drop of smallpox vaccine.
D. A. Henderson, who led the eradication program, made an award for his team called the “Order of the Bifurcated Needle.” His daughter made a patch showing the points of the needle bent into a zero.
If you want a single, vivid, and frankly disgusting example to hold in mind to remember how much our lives have improved over the last ~150 years…
Consider *shit*.
Literally, excrement. How much previous generations had to think about it, be around it, even handle it:
Before the automobile, horses flooded the streets, and cities were mired in their muck. According to Richard Rhodes, in NYC, horses dropped 4 million pounds of manure and 100 thousand gallons of urine on the streets every *day*. (!)
And Robert Gordon quotes this passage from *The Horse in the City*. “On New York’s Liberty Street there was a manure heap seven feet high.”
Shoveling shit was literally a full-time job. And one of the key uses of horses was to pull the wagons that carried away horse droppings.
Today Google @DeepMind announced that their deep learning system AlphaFold has achieved unprecedented levels of accuracy on the “protein folding problem”, a grand challenge problem in computational biochemistry.
I spent a couple years on this problem in a junior role in the early days of @DEShawResearch, so it's close to my heart. DESRES (as we called it internally) took an approach of building a specialized supercomputing architecture, called Anton:
Proteins are long chains of amino acids. Your DNA encodes these sequences, and RNA helps manufacture proteins according to this genetic blueprint.
Proteins are synthesized as linear chains, but they don't stay that way. They fold up in to complex, globular shapes.
Many people don't know that in scientific jargon, “predict” and “explain” are *also* not causation. They are forms of correlation.
These terms can cause extreme miscommunication.
(Technically, “association” might be a better term than “correlation”, which can have a narrower technical meaning in statistics. But since I'm writing this for non-experts, I'm going to use the term “correlation” in the colloquial, wider sense.)
In lay usage, “X predicts Y” implies that X comes *before* Y. Predictions are about the future.
In statistics, there is no time implication at all. It is just a type of correlation.
This is a pretty bald-faced admission from a @washingtonpost editor: “journalism, particularly at the highest level, is about raw power.” cjr.org/public_editor/…
I mean, @elonmusk decides he doesn't need a PR department, and this guy's reaction is: “this is about power. We need to take some back.” Literally—that is a quote from the piece.
“All I know is that there is only one way the press maintains its power in society: By metaphorically putting the heads of powerful people on pikes.”
Yes, I suppose if you cherry-pick your starting point, and assume that a change of any size is significant, you can interpret a flat line as a “trend”.
I didn't go find my own data, by the way, I literally just clicked the link in the article.