Alex Profile picture
18 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Most traders unfortunately do poorly. Too much leverage. Stops too tight. Fear of lossing. Trading against the trend. Too many edgeless tools. Guru fixation. Trade like retail and will lose like retail.
Things I'd recommend to traders until becoming consistently profitable:

- eliminate leverage
- use only very wide stops
- reduce size accordingly
- never go all in
- focus on 1-4 assets
- eliminate indicators aside of volume and maybe 1/2 MAs
- trade only with the larger trend
Could make that list longer, but that's the core.

I am certain whoever does that will do well for the following few years, as odds are markets will trend higher.

A great thing about crypto in particular is that being so volatile, one can do extremely well even without leverage.
Can think of trading as driving a car. Need to know how to drive on the streets before going on the freeway. Need to be able to drive safely at 60mph before speeding up to 120mph. Shouldn't drive at 120mph if unable to avoid crashing at low speeds.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Alex

Alex Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @classicmacro

16 Dec
This is how noobs do it:

#1 wait for bitcoin price to go up a lot
#2 feel FOMO
#3 look at underperforming assets for something to buy
#4 ignore that price is going down for a reason
#5 buy some garbage
#6 then bitcoin corrects and garbage drops even more

Always the same.
This is how pros do it:

#1 identify winners
#2 wait patiently for a correction
#3 buy the winners whenever a correction comes
#4 weather the storm
#5 see prices go up and profit

Not difficult. Just need to be patient and wait for the opportunities.
That applies to technical trading whenever the trader has no fundamental/informational edge. In those cases, best to focus on buying the winners on corrections and exercise patience. Corrections always come. Regularly.
Read 5 tweets
15 Dec
If you think long-only traditional asset managers are buying bitcoin to dump it after a short period of time

you deserve to be poor.

Keep on drawing lines in your charts, and enjoy the ramen.
There are mainly four kinds of institutional market participants:

- real money, i.e. traditional asset managers
- fast money, i.e. hedge funds, CTAs
- banks
- central banks, sovereign wealth funds & supranationals

Then you have family offices, and corporate treasuries.
Real money includes pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds and endowments. Unlike fast money, real money is usually long only and has extended holding periods. Fast money may dump on you. Real money may do so indirectly as it rebalances exposure.
Read 4 tweets
7 Dec
The next 20K break, whenever that may come, could easily lead to a major $BTC breakout.

That's why being long is the best play even for those who are short-term bearish.
Getting net short here hoping for 16K-17K is a bad bet to me, regardless of if price breaks down or not.
As the saying goes, don't fight the trend.

This bullish trend does not get any stronger.

Price is somewhat overbought here, but neither sentiment nor positioning are extreme.

I remain bullish and positioned accordingly.
Read 4 tweets
1 Dec
In traditional markets a 10x long generally refers to a trade ten times the size of the trading account.

In crypto markets a 10x long generally refers to a trade ten times the size of the position margin.
That is so as Bitmex innovated by implementing "isolated margin", which separates the margin of a position from the rest of the account.

Don't have isolated margin outsde of crypto.
In crypto a trader taking a 20x long is generally someone using 20x leverage using isolated margin, which technically means trade has a 5% stop.

Given how price gaps, it is best to use high leverage only with isolated margin (as a stop loss).

100x => 1%
20x => 5%
5x => 20%
Read 5 tweets
1 Dec
I can say the same thing about Cronje. I have been outspoken in the past about things he did wrong, but I cannot understate how much he has done right.
He's also a natural born pump (and dump) machine.

Can't pump without dump.
$SUSHI and $KP3R pumping on the news.
Read 4 tweets
30 Nov
This has been my view on gold since November 9 and the Pfizer vaccine news. I'm long - added to my longer term position today. Expect market to soon start trading increased Fed easing to come on December 16, driving the dollar lower. Also longed silver. Same analysis applies.
This is a big picture play, with stops 8% lower => outside the noise. More likely to exit if the macro changes and proves me wrong than hitting that stop. I don't expect either, but always possible.
No, not going to advertise moving all my liquid net worth into bitcoin, like some do for engagement. I'm already balls deep into bitcoin & crypto, been so for a long time. I generally handle crypto positions independently from crypto.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!