Milhouse Van Houten 🇨🇦 Profile picture
Dec 18, 2020 14 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Here we have the total number of deaths in Canada over the past four years. The most recent 12 months of data do not suggest a spike in deaths relative to historical trends.

#COVID19Canada #COVID19 #Canada Image
Zooming out nationally over the past decade, we see that it's perfectly natural for deaths in one year to exceed deaths in the previous year.

***This does not necessarily = excess deaths.***

Look how often the blue growth line is above 0%. Image
So deaths are rising.

Is that due to population growth?

Population aging?

It's a bit of both, but not covid.
Here we have the chart you saw earlier now expressed as a rate per 100,000 people. Generally, a flatter trend in death rates would suggest that population growth may be the key factor driving growth in total deaths. Image
Across the decade, again we see that when we adjust for population growth, the growth trend is weaker but still there - the aging of the population is likely the primary factor.

Deaths are rising in absolute and relative terms, suggesting a combo of population growth and aging. Image
Too early to draw conclusions on what this means but here are leading causes of death in Canada over the past 4 years.

Many recent deaths remain unclassified in the "information unavailable" column and will presumably will properly attributed over time. Image
Here is the same, presented as rates per 100,000 population to account for population growth.

A key question to address as this data evolves is the degree to which deaths attributed to covid-19 have substituted for deaths attributed to other causes. Image
Note that Covid-19 is often not a wholly distinct and separate cause of death as there are other medical conditions involved in many cases.

There are also cases in which it is not even a cause of death, but the individual had tested positive sometime prior to their death. Image
Canada total monthly deaths 2017-2020. Image
Canada - The average age of a death by or with covid-19 is higher than life expectancy.

Deaths among those over 80 account for 70.6% of deaths by/with covid-19, but only 51.1% of all deaths (all causes) in 2019. Image
If you are under 70, your risk of dying after being infected with SARS-CoV-2 is lower than your annual risk of death.

If you are over 70, your risk of dying after being infected is only slightly higher than your annual risk of death. Image
Canada – Case survival rates (= 100% - case fatality rate) by age. Image
The 80+ age cohort accounts for 51% of all-cause deaths in Canada and 71% of deaths from or with Covid-19, but only 4% of the population.

In contrast, children account for 22% of the pop. but only 1% of all-cause deaths in Canada and 0% (0.02%) of deaths from or with Covid-19. Image
Among those over 80 in Canada, there are 8,939 deaths of all causes and 590 deaths from or with Covid-19 per 100,000 people.

In contrast, among children in Canada, there are 36 deaths of all causes and 0 (0.04) deaths from or with Covid-19 per 100,000 people. Image

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More from @Milhouse_Van_Ho

Feb 14, 2022
🚨An appeal🚨

I'm very happy to see the @IdeasInst launch! Please take a look at their website and learn more about them. Please also follow them here on Twitter.

It's still the early days of this organization but expect many great things in the future.

theideasinstitute.org/2022/02/04/the…
The mission of the @IdeasInst "is to make a public commitment to the values of the enlightenment: liberty, tolerance, universal rights and rationalism."

This resonates so well with what many of us here believe in, especially as the last two years have strengthened our values.
Their Board of Scholars is impressive and includes many familiar names: @TejaShahzia @DonaldWelsh16 @LDBildy @MikkoPackalen @ClausRinner @JamesManson6263 @PardyBruce @WoodReporting

This is not a fringe minority, but their views may be unacceptable to the established elites.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 26, 2022
Ontario 2020-22 comparison in 8 charts.

1. Weekly all-cause deaths and deaths with/from Covid-19 in Ontario, 2010-2022 (subject to Statistics Canada reporting delay for all-cause deaths).
2. Cases, hosp'zns & deaths indexed to values 1 year earlier. Black line (index=100) is 365 days ago (all values indexed to values on that date).

(Below black bar = < than one year ago today; Above black bar = > than one year ago today)
3. 2020-2022 seasonal comparison: The number of deaths from/with covid-19 in Ontario.
Read 9 tweets
Jan 25, 2022
Here are two Ontario-focused articles (written by your neighbours!) to share with family and friends who may benefit from knowing they're not alone in feeling that things have gotten out of hand in this province.

The children (and adults) of Ontario are not alright.
"Ontario’s children are the victims of abuse. Under any other circumstances, what Ontario’s children are experiencing would be investigated by our police as child abuse."

H/T @LauraRosenCohen

@fordnation @celliottability @Sflecce

brownstone.org/articles/ontar…
"In my classroom, the learning loss is noticeable. My students can’t concentrate and they aren’t doing the work that I assign to them.
...
Our children need life on the highest volume. And they need it now."

@fordnation @celliottability @Sflecce

bariweiss.substack.com/p/im-a-public-…
Read 4 tweets
Jan 14, 2022
Mortality in Canada (thread):

Weekly all-cause deaths and deaths with/from Covid-19 in Canada, 2010-2021 (subject to Statistics Canada reporting delay for all-cause deaths.) Image
Canada total weekly deaths 2016 to 2021. Image
The number of deaths from all causes in 2018-19 vs. number of deaths from or with Covid-19 in 2020-21, by age. Image
Read 19 tweets
Jan 14, 2022
A maternity hospital in Japan has raised concerns about mask usage during pregnancy, noting that the length of umbilical cords has shortened alongside an increase in mask usage during covid.

This was posted on Instagram and is, unsurprisingly, no longer available.
The wording of the Instagram post is available here for those who can read Japanese or who want to attempt a translation.

ameblo.jp/zsunsun55z/ent…
Key finding - Percentage of umbilical cords under 50 cm:

2019 - 28.5%
2020 - 33.3%
2021 - 55%
2021 June onward - 76.9%
Read 5 tweets
Jan 12, 2022
Ontario 2020-22 comparison in 8 charts.

1. Weekly all-cause deaths and deaths with/from Covid-19 in Ontario, 2010-2022 (subject to Statistics Canada reporting delay for all-cause deaths).
2. Cases, hosp'zns & deaths indexed to values 1 year earlier. Black line (index=100) is 365 days ago (all values indexed to values on that date).

(Below black bar = < than one year ago today; Above black bar = > than one year ago today)
3. 2020-2022 seasonal comparison: The number of deaths from/with covid-19 in Ontario.
Read 9 tweets

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