Update on the fisheries negotiations:

@MichelBarnier has held one meeting this morning with sherpas from the 8 coastal states and another began at 1300 CET. He's essentially testing their room for manoeuvre on access and quota share but getting strong push back
2/ As a reminder, the EU starting position was that European fleets wd forego 15-18pc of the overall value of fish caught by EU boats in UK waters (€650m); the UK said that figure shd be closer to 80pc, although it has since come down to 60pc
3/ The EU proposed a 10 year phasing in period at the end of which there would be a review that would be tied to continued access to the overall single market. The UK proposed 3yrs after which all bets are off
4/ In talks with sherpas, I understand that Barnier has said if he can push the quota share from 15pc-18pc up to 22pc-23pc, while moving the phase in period down from 10 yrs to 8 or 7 yrs there may be a deal. Although the UK is still playing hardball on both so that's not clear
5/ The UK is still insisting on stripping out the pelagic stocks from this overall deal and having them dealt with through the more informal forum of coastal states which includes Russia, Iceland, Norway, Faroes, Greenland etc
6/ I'm told the UK is still bent on excluding all EU vessels (ie, mainly French ones) from its 6m-12m zone.
7/ Among those pushing back hardest against Barnier's efforts are said to the Danes. Their big species ex UK waters is sand eels, and they are caught largely by Jutland fishermen. Danes arguing that area has been devastated by the Coronavirus-linked cull of mink farms, I'm told
8/ All told, a lot of hard bargaining going on...

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More from @tconnellyRTE

19 Dec
Eleventh hour talks between the EU and UK on the final fisheries element of the post-Brexit free trade negotiations are said to be “extremely difficult”, sources have told @rtenews .
2/ It’s understood that member states are being appraised of the EU’s latest offer, which would see a 25pc cut in the value of the fish quotas caught by EU boats - including Irish vessels - in UK waters.
3/ According to one EU official, the offer made by the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier would be worth €160 million to the British fisheries industry.

The UK has been pressing for more than double that, which would translate to some 60pc of the fish caught in UK waters.
Read 8 tweets
17 Dec
U.K. statement after @BorisJohnson @vonderleyen call

The PM underlined that the negotiations were now in a serious situation.  Time was very short and it now looked very likely that agreement would not be reached unless the EU position changed substantially.
2/ He said that we were making every effort to accommodate reasonable EU requests on the level playing field, but even though the gap had narrowed some fundamental areas remained difficult.
3/ On fisheries he stressed that the UK could not accept a situation where it was the only sovereign country in the world not to be able to control access to its own waters for an extended period and to be faced with fisheries quotas which hugely disadvantaged its own industry.
Read 5 tweets
17 Dec
New: the European Parliament's announcement that it will not ratify any treaty before the end of December unless the deal is concluded by midnight on Sunday comes amid signals that, despite progress, a deal won't be concluded until early next week.
2/ This is because there are still some formidable hurdles in the way of closure on the level playing field issue, and they haven't even got into fisheries in a big way yet. And both sides say things there are "extremely difficult".
3/ Yesterday there were some signals that a deal could be done by the weekend, but the mood seems to have dipped somewhat.
Read 9 tweets
16 Dec
Update on where we're at in the Brexit negotiations:

While both sides have a way to go, on the level playing field/state aid there is a landing zone in sight. On fisheries, both sides say that is "very difficult"
2/ It looks as if all the energy is going into the LPF and once cracked, they'll barrel into the fisheries stuff. Governance, or how to solve disputes, looks like it has been more or less done
3/ However, the question of a review clause (or sunset clause) which is primarily about the fishing arrangements is still in there, and it will still embrace the wider FTA
Read 18 tweets
16 Dec
NEW: European Commission president @vonderleyen: As things stand I cannot tell you whether there will be a deal or not, but I can tell you there is a path to an agreement now. The path may be very narrow but it is there.
2/ VDL - it is therefore our responsibility to continue trying.
3/ Commission president says the "good news" is we have found a way forward on most issues, but this is now a case of being "so close and yet being so far away from each other."
Read 12 tweets
14 Dec
NEW: re the previous thread and potential Provisional Application of the treaty:

Important to note that opting for Provisional Application is *not* a silver bullet to avoid a No Deal on Jan 1 if the negotiations run out of time
2/ A source has said there is a "very high risk" of a No Deal interregnum in the first part of January simply because even deciding on Provisional Application takes quite a bit of time.
3/ "If you have a deal just before Christmas there isn't enough time to have the deal rolled out, even provisionally, before Jan 1."
Read 8 tweets

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