Time for a Scorecard📊and thesis📑updates for purchases done in Feb/Mar 2020. Last review done in late April. How far things have come since then.😯

Not taking any drastic actions, other than few sells in fully valued, slower growth Co.'s.
Events since then
✔️Co's reporting two Qtrly reports
✔️Accelerating growth for few sectors
✔️Understandable problems for few others
✔️Crazy run-ups & valuations in the last 9 mo's, supported by biz growth in some cases, but mostly due to Monetary factors & Investor enthusiasm...
I usually buy for two scenarios

1⃣Leading Co's within strong secular trends, that also have strong Management Teams and solid Financials (Rev growth, Profitability or improving Margins/FCF prospects, no balance sheet risk...).
These are bought with the intention of holding for the long-term as long as the thesis is intact or getting better. Strongly intend to add along the way. Ex : $ROKU $PINS $TWLO $DOCU $W $NOW $WDAY $NVCR $MTCH in the above table.
2⃣More mature and stable Co.'s but with some growth left (no Financial risk), mainly bought for their current under-valuation, with the intent to sell when the Market or those stocks recover. Ex : $BIP $BUD $VTR $BR $BA in above table.
Occasional unplanned sells like
- $W one lot in late May, as the stock 8X'ed in 2 months after bottoming in March.
- $UBER after 3X (but unfortunately, just before the Vaccine news started coming out) as I was more interested in under-valuation in March, than for long-term.
I'm guilty of usually squeezing bulk of my buys in high Volatility periods.

Few purchases made after this (not recommendations)
$CRM (Dec, $220)
$ZM (Dec, $380)
$DOCU (Nov, $201)
$ETSY (Nov, $120)
$TDOC (Nov, $197)
$MDB (Sep, $209)
$FSLY (Sep, $76)
Updating my favorite investing concept & illustration for high volatility periods.

When good Co.'s are heavily discounted and put for you on a platter, given that you have a Watchlist &
✔️done your research
✔️developed thesis/conviction
✔️not worried about further downside
Every one needs their own toolkit for high volatility periods and bear markets. This is what will
✔️ensure you won't let fear drastically change your long-term plans and strategy
✔️get you thru to the other side
✔️maybe even take advantage of the low prices
Here are few concepts that have helped me in the past high volatility periods.

✔️Ben Graham's Mr Market: He's mostly pretty smart/stable but high VIX (fear/uncertainty) & extremely low VIX (complacency) are when you need to be little contrarian & take advantage of his behavior.
✔️"You make a lot of money (by investing in good Co's) during Bear Markets, You just don't realize it at the time" - Shelby Davis.

✔️When the price of a Stock (in a good Company) falls a lot, it actually becomes less risky (Howard Marks)
✔️Hyperbolic discounting : Fear causing time horizons to shrink, and Market valuing good Co's with bright future prospects as if they're mature/declining businesses. h/t @IntrinsicInv

✔️Cash and Courage during a crash are invaluable (Buffett).
Anyway, this is just a random collection of thoughts about high volatility periods (like March), some results/updates, and some concepts that help during those periods.

/END. 👍

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Ram Bhupatiraju

Ram Bhupatiraju Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @RamBhupatiraju

20 Dec
Pretty good and simple document on Research Methodology used by Davis Funds. 👏

✔️Characteristics of great businesses
✔️Evaluating Management
✔️Ideal way of valuing Businesses (Owner's Earnings) ✔️Selling discipline

cc: @Gautam__Baid @dmuthuk

davisetfs.com/documents/ETFR… Image
Good Flowchart.

Bottom-up analysis of Companies, while being aware of Top-down (Trends/Views) is extremely important these days.

davisetfs.com/about/investme… Image
Methodology. Many similarities with the frameworks of Buffett, Chuck Akre, Terry Smith etc.. Image
Read 6 tweets
17 Dec
Excellent article by @CBinsights on #SPACs. 👏

✔️The basics
✔️Why now? For Private Companies & Investors
✔️Challenges & concerns
✔️Looking ahead

The article clarified few things well for me.👍

cbinsights.com/research/repor…
How it works👇
Benefits (in the ideal case of course) for the parties involved 👇
Read 10 tweets
16 Dec
Good refresher document on
✔️Basics of the three Financial statements
✔️Financial Statement Analysis (cross sectional & time-series based)
✔️Financial Ratios & correlations
✔️DuPont Analysis, ROE & components.

This stuff matters in normal Markets.😉

pearsoncanada.ca/media/highered… Image
Balance sheet 👇 Image
Income Statement 👇 Image
Read 7 tweets
13 Dec
Excellent blog with Book Reviews and some long-form essays. h/t @DuaMandhir 👏

cc: @dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid

Thread below with some of my fav books/reviews. ⬇️

mandhirdua.com/book-reviews?b…
The little Book that builds wealth - Pat Dorsey

mandhirdua.com/book-reviews/f…
The Most Important Thing - Howard Marks

"Success in investing lies in having a contrarian approach to understand value, risk, cyclic nature of markets and most importantly human psychology".

mandhirdua.com/book-reviews/f…
Read 9 tweets
11 Dec
Investing is more fun & rewarding when you understand the story of the Company, have your own thesis, and know what to follow along (even before Financials & stock prices).

Sharing with few FinTwit friends.

@saxena_puru @richard_chu97 @FromValue @adventuresinfi @dhaval_kotecha
Here are🔟of my holdings

The slide that best captures what the Company has done and trying to do going forward and

My simplified thesis for buying/holding them.

Feel free to add your thesis for any of these.

$V $ISRG $MELI $SQ $TWLO $DOCU $ETSY $TDOC $MTCH $TCEHY (not recs)
$V (long since 2009)

Worldwide & decades long movement from Cash to Electronic/Digital payments. E-Commerce and Mobile wallet adoption & partnerships help even more.

If the blockchain applications catch up and V/MA can't adopt those solutions, that's when I'll be worried.
Read 17 tweets
11 Dec
Excellent article on Behavioral Finance.
h/t @CatanaCapital 👏

A very useful topic to be aware of, especially when there's a lot of exuberance in the Markets (like now, in few sectors and IPOs/SPACs...👀).

catanacapital.com/blog/behaviora…
The best long-term results in the Markets are achieved, when you moderate your behavior (and have a good plan and stick to it), instead of your actions/moods entirely being influenced by the Market cycle, like this guy below.👇
Good and simple explanations of some of the behavioral biases in the article.
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!