[THREAD] A variant of #COVID19sa has been charted in South Africa and reported to the WHO. #COVID19
Genetic sequencing by @Tuliodna & team has shown that recently a new lineage of the new coronavirus is accounting the bulk of new #COVID19sa coronavirus infections in the second wave. #COVID19 Scientists will now try to understand what it means for the course of the outbreak.
Prof Salim Abdool Karim presents the seven-day moving average of new #COVID19sa cases #COVID19.
Here's what the provinces look like. Even though other provinces besides the Western Cape are showing smaller numbers, numbers in all provinces are rising quickly. #covid19SA #COVID19
Preliminary data indicates that the new variant is no more deadly than previous lineages of #covid19SA It's not clear if new lineages will lead to more severe #COVID19 cases but there are some early signs that it may be spreading faster.
Patient swabs from those with the new variant seem to preliminarily show more viral load. Higher viral load may translate to a more transmissible virus, speculates Abdool Karim. So each person who has the variant may be able to transmit the virus to more people. #covid19SA
Summary slide: What we do and don't know about the new variant of #covid19SA #COVID19 in South Africa care of Prof Salim Abdool Karim.
Similar mutations have been found in other countries, including Australia, and can be diagnosed and controlled in the same way as previous #COVID19 variants, Abdool Karim says. Data will be published in a peer-reviewed journal soon. #Covid_19
.@DrZweliMkhize "Behaviour during the festive season is likely to worsen #COVID19 spread. We have noticed a degree of complacency... and picking up a number of cluster outbreaks." #covid19SA @HealthZA expects another wave may happen in January as people return home from holidays
Doctors are now going to try to figure out if this new variant of #COVID19sa impacts disease progression, a tough ask for doctors also coping with a second wave, says @rjlessells Abdool Karim says new variant (not a new strain) unlikely to have different symptoms. #COVID19
Although the UK and SA lineages or variants are similar in the number of mutations and changes, they emerged very differently and are not closely related, says @Tuliodna who adds they have been sharing data on the SA variant widely.
A big question, says @rjlessells on the new #Covid19InSA variant is whether antibodies produced in response to this variant will protect the body from other variants of #COVID19 Again, scientists stress this is not a new strain of COVID-19

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More from @LLopezGonzalez

22 Jul
[Thread] What could #AlcoholFreeSA look like under the latest MRC #COVID19SA ban on alcohol sales? Here's what the modelling says: bit.ly/2WHtNl6

• A four-week ban = A reduction of 22,212 trauma cases in hospitals

• An eight-week ban = Almost 50,000
2/4 Based on figures from five Western Cape hospital, ~50,000 fewer hospital trauma cases translates to:

• 124,000 less days spent in general wards during #COVID19SA under #LockdownSA

• and 46,000 less days of ICU bed occupancy or a savings of R1.3-billion
3/4 Check out the presentation to Parliament here bit.ly/2WHtNl6 and the full, open-source model here including its assumptions and inputs #AlcoholFreeSA #COVID19SA zivahub.uct.ac.za/articles/datas…
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