I forget who said it but one of the truisms of the Trump era was that Trump enemies always sunk to his level and lower. In foreign policy it seems like most everyone automatically lost 20 IQ points because the thinking is so poorly though through. Let's take one example 1/n
The buzz word dominating Acela Corridor think tanks and media (neither the brightest lights in the house) is "allies" to challenge China. As an amorphous vacuous meaningless cliche it's wonderful. However, it stems not from an realistic appraisal of the foreign policy 2/n
Landscape but from a critique of Trump (leave aside the accuracy for now) and a desire for boring peace, love, and kumbaya. The reality is that for numerous reasons, all these supposed "allies" are not nearly the "allies" our media and think tank overlords suppose 3/n
It works because who isn't for allies? What is wrong with you if you question this vacuous devoid of meaning campaign slogan? If you will notice, uttering allies is treated like a force field which protects the speaker from any need to understand the position of said allies 4/n
Rendering them immune from criticism and you a crank conspiracy racist if you disagree with them. For years, I have written about the cracks in the international system and alliances that have existed, that existed under Obama and even before. The bankruptcy of foreign policy 5/n
Is now built upon a philosophy unrealism. A year ago I wrote "we need to rethink what the United States wants and needs from institutions and alliances and how this evolution will need to play out in the brave new great power conflict with China." baldingsworld.com/2019/09/27/wha… 6/n
More broadly, in May 2019 I wrote "The United States needs to rethink how it wants to project its influence abroad; specifically, in support of foreign policy objectives." Overlords say "allies" but have nothing to add about what that means in practice 7/n baldingsworld.com/2019/05/20/a-n…
There are a couple of very real problems that have yet to be acknowledged and that is the post WWII and post Cold War order that served the international liberal order is decidedly creaky and does not enjoy the support or robustness as before. It is perfectly fair to question 8/n
Trump objectives and methods, but the WTO is not a robust, adaptable, or deeply supported institution. Many "alliances" suffer from much greater long term rot with increasingly divergent positions that stray from fundamental values than is appreciated. There is a great demand 9/n
Europe reaching an investment agreement with China before Biden enters the White House would be a giant middle finger to this entire philosophy. At what point to you admit your suppositions are simply wrong and need to be recalibrated? Done.
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There is astounding poverty of foreign policy thinking. It is both Trump obsessed and gratuitously narcissistic in US political self absorption. Virtually any geopolitical problem you cite will NOT be fixed by changing the President. Let's go down a quick list of hits: 1/n
South Korea is governed by a kumbaya singing Pyongyang appeaser who wants the US to put personnel at risk giving it a blank check while he actively tries to give goodies to a totalitarian mad man. That's not changing with a new President 2/n
China is governed by an unabashed totalitarian wannabe that will not negotiate on anything but how low you will bow to recognize their supremacy. That's not changing with a new president 3/n
Another great data leak by the IPAC team on CCP members in UK companies and government institutions. A couple of important things about this database are important to note 1/n dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…
First, these CCP members are in senior ranks at all the major multinationals with access to key IP and IT security. In other words, MNCs are dealing with the CCP and infiltrated by the CCP at all levels. 2/n
Second, this data was offered to ALL major US outlets and all passed. Think about that: all major US outlets passed on a CCP membership list with work information! Why does this matter? Many reasons. Let me give you one: a recent executive order blocks CCP members and 3/n
I never cease to be amazed at how bad the foreign policy takes from Acela Corridor Galaxy Brains™️ are and I think I've narrowed it down to two specific issues. First, they have limited technical knowledge about the issues they are actually pontificating on. 1/n
I read an article just recently by a noted outlet on a topic that should have focused on technical hurdles to realizing a solution but turned out to be nothing more than basically a Risk board game analysis of forming alliances and moving troops into Kamchatka. 2/n
The fundamental problem is that the analysts are pontificating about something they have no idea about technically. Rather than discuss the technical hurdles it was board game analysis of alliances and resources from conquered lands. In the areas I focus on, there is a severe 4/n
As a great lover of Tolstoy and Dostoevsky, I love this thread and line if thinking. However, I take a slightly different view, not even really disagreeing. To me Tolstoy and Dostoevsky focus on two different areas of life. Tolstoy is like the macro view as Einstein is to 1/n
Is to physics through relativity. War and Peace sought to explain human role in the upheaval of historical events. The psychology existed within their role of this macro view of historical change. Dostoevsky is the Neil Bohr of quantum physics at the individual level of 2/n
Personal salvation and struggle. The inveterate obsessed gambler, the killer struggling to reconcile his actions to his belief, or the monk seeking to make certain his faith in God. These were personal individual struggles separate from the macro backdrop of history against 3/n
I'm frequently asked why the obsession with China? Simple: The CCP wants to dominate the world. Period. They are not a competitor. They are an adversary. An enemy. It is not hard to conceive where they usher in a long period of global authoritarianism. Too many people 1/n
Including a lot of DC "experts" have been entirely and totally wrong and still are. They need to be treated as they are: not a country with whom we have a trade dispute but a whole of society adversary bent on changing the governance system globally and within democracies. 2/n
Every issue you talk about is a China issue: inequality, innovation, climate, on and on. They are ALL fundamentally China issues. Too many people think China will negotiate and cooperate. Find me an example of where China has good faith cooperated. I'll wait. 3/n
The EU framework for transatlantic cooperation is more Euro non-sense. There is a reason every administration since the fall of the wall has held pretty similar position on Europe and why Europe is not considered a leader in global affairs. Highlights: 1/n ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf…
The Iranian nuclear deal is called "key pillar of the global non-proliferation architecture". You cannot be serious but then again this is European security policy makers so you probably think you are being serious. 2/n
China gets one paragraph near the end where they are called "China is a negotiating partner for cooperation, an economic competitor, and a
systemic rival." Again only a European foreign policy bureaucrat could write that and think they are serious 3/n