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Christmas Spirit Balding 大老板 Profile picture
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6 Dec, 5 tweets, 2 min read
As a great lover of Tolstoy and Dostoevsky, I love this thread and line if thinking. However, I take a slightly different view, not even really disagreeing. To me Tolstoy and Dostoevsky focus on two different areas of life. Tolstoy is like the macro view as Einstein is to 1/n
Is to physics through relativity. War and Peace sought to explain human role in the upheaval of historical events. The psychology existed within their role of this macro view of historical change. Dostoevsky is the Neil Bohr of quantum physics at the individual level of 2/n
Personal salvation and struggle. The inveterate obsessed gambler, the killer struggling to reconcile his actions to his belief, or the monk seeking to make certain his faith in God. These were personal individual struggles separate from the macro backdrop of history against 3/n
Which we all exist whether in 19th century Russia or 21st century pandemic. However, much like Einstein and Bohr, Tolstoy and Dostoevsky cannot really be reconciled because humans exist on those two separate plains within a society and within our individual struggles. 4/n
Personally, I like Tolstoy's view of history and individuals role in it but I lean more Dostoevsky when it comes to individual psychology and motivations of man. If Twitter like Notes from the Underground has taught us nothing it is that we are ego motivated deranged obsessives

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Christmas Spirit Balding 大老板 Profile picture
3 Dec
I'm frequently asked why the obsession with China? Simple: The CCP wants to dominate the world. Period. They are not a competitor. They are an adversary. An enemy. It is not hard to conceive where they usher in a long period of global authoritarianism. Too many people 1/n
Including a lot of DC "experts" have been entirely and totally wrong and still are. They need to be treated as they are: not a country with whom we have a trade dispute but a whole of society adversary bent on changing the governance system globally and within democracies. 2/n
Every issue you talk about is a China issue: inequality, innovation, climate, on and on. They are ALL fundamentally China issues. Too many people think China will negotiate and cooperate. Find me an example of where China has good faith cooperated. I'll wait. 3/n
Read 6 tweets
Christmas Spirit Balding 大老板 Profile picture
2 Dec
The EU framework for transatlantic cooperation is more Euro non-sense. There is a reason every administration since the fall of the wall has held pretty similar position on Europe and why Europe is not considered a leader in global affairs. Highlights: 1/n
ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf…
The Iranian nuclear deal is called "key pillar of the global non-proliferation architecture". You cannot be serious but then again this is European security policy makers so you probably think you are being serious. 2/n
China gets one paragraph near the end where they are called "China is a negotiating partner for cooperation, an economic competitor, and a
systemic rival." Again only a European foreign policy bureaucrat could write that and think they are serious 3/n
Read 6 tweets
Christmas Spirit Balding 大老板 Profile picture
30 Nov
The EU position on its face is imminently reasonable. The realities and mechanics is where it falls apart. Let me give you a couple of examples. First, the EU is years behind the US in cybersecurity. Y.E.A.R.S. Second, lacking the expertise and resources, this sounds a lot 1/n
Another opportunity to free ride than actually do something. Couple that with the EUs ability to churn out working papers that mean nothing in practice and I wouldn't hold my breath. Then this is mostly national sovereignty issue and not an EU issue difficult to see national 2/n
Governments moving or allocating the necessary resources needed. Third, national investment encapsulates all these issues perfectly. Every EU country had the ability to set their own investment policy (think NordStream). They don't need the US to set national security 3/n
Read 5 tweets
Christmas Spirit Balding 大老板 Profile picture
18 Nov
This article highlights the absurdity of Acela Corridor journalists who have the memory of a fruit fly repeating inane talking points about US policy towards Europe and allies. Follow me a moment 1/n
politico.eu/article/german…
Germany openly admits they absolutely must have the US security guarantee because other than a handful of boy scouts and launching stale Nutella at invading forces, they have absolutely no capabilities and will not be investing in their security any time soon. 2/n
Not only is it true which admit it, they have refused really since 1989 to do anything but free ride off of the American security guarantee. They insist on running extremely tight fiscal policy all while throwing temper tantrums when the US draws down forces. This isn't new 3/n
Read 8 tweets
Christmas Spirit Balding 大老板 Profile picture
29 Oct
So since I have had a couple people send this to me. Let me respond. Couple of things very important to note. First, I wrote a very small part of this report. I stand by the report because I went over it with a fine tooth comb and have known the 1/n
nbcnews.com/tech/security/…
The primary author for nearly a decade. The primary author faces personal and professional risk for outing themselves and I am going to respect that. Too all China focused journalists: there is a not insignificant chance you have dealt with this person. To hear journalists 2/n
Who use anonymous sources all the time was morally superior is disgusting. Second, no one has written about the contents of the paper or found factual fault with anything in the report. That reveals the readers bias not a problem with the report. If there is a factual error 3/n
Read 17 tweets
Christmas Spirit Balding 大老板 Profile picture
22 Oct
This is a good question and they're are two ways to approach this. First, we actually have pretty good hard data. In reality, Trump overseas business interests are pretty minimal. His business model for the most part is brand licensing which may or may not be a good thing 1/n
Going forward. From the information we have his income from foreign sources is actually relatively minimal and predates his time as President. Philippines, UAE, India others. Specifically in China, it's not large and he holds no assets I'm aware of. If I'm wrong let me know 3/n
Biden holds a 10% stake in a $6.5b fund turning out $130m a year in fee revenue. That one comparison makes Biden significantly more leveraged in China than Trump. Second, if we turn to potential embarrassing info that China might have on either very difficult to say 4/n
Read 4 tweets

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