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Dr Anna Jerzewska Profile picture
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20 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Missed this. 18% of SMEs that believe they will be negatively impacted consider themselves prepared for 1 Jan (according to @fsb_policy).

18%. That is less than last year. With less than 2 weeks to go.

/1

eastmidlandsbusinesslink.co.uk/mag/news/less-…
68% of SMEs say it is due to ongoing uncertainty regarding the future deal and only 22% say it's due to covid which is surprising.

/2
While the Chairman calling for a "pro-enterprise free trade agreement" I hope it's clear that would only help in some areas.

/3
And an "ambitious small business chapter" would have to be more than ambitious, it would have to be innovative and groundbreaking to actually make a difference.

Which I hope it will be.

/end

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More from @AnnaJerzewska

Dr Anna Jerzewska Profile picture
20 Dec
Once more, a reminder that for many firms this is the backdrop against which they are trying to finalise their Brexit prep:

1⃣ Continued uncertainty regarding deal/no-deal (tariffs)
2⃣ Ongoing pandemic and the impact on operations (staff, closures, stock)

/1
3⃣ Global supply chain crisis
4⃣ Congestion around the UK’s major container ports
5⃣ Disruptions at the UK's key ro-ro ports and queues

/2
6⃣ New lockdown rules and the loss of key retail period
7⃣ The new travel/movement restrictions and further delays this will cause to moving stock

/3
Read 6 tweets
Dr Anna Jerzewska Profile picture
13 Dec
Just as a reminder - without a freeze/ implementation period or some sort of derogation - no business on either side will be able to use the UK-EU FTA to avoid paying tariffs on 1 Jan even if we get one tomorrow.

It's already too late.

/1
Businesses simply won't have enough time to familiarise themselves with rules of origin, figure out whether their products meet them (larger companies have hundreds of SKUs) and understand what the certification requirements are.

/2
It is expected that companies would be able to self-certify origin under the UK-EU FTA but that is not always that straight forward and sometimes requires prior steps.

/3
Read 7 tweets
Dr Anna Jerzewska Profile picture
12 Dec
🚢This has been happening for the last few months: ships at anchor waiting, shipping lines cancelling orders and diverting, largest shipping lines refusing to accept new bookings

/1

ft.com/content/eb2105…
In the UK, this just the beginning - soon to be accompanied by the perfect Brexit storm.

/2
It was not the shock of the pandemic that sent shockwaves across the entire logistics industry but the rebound of trade in recent months.

/3
Read 5 tweets
Dr Anna Jerzewska Profile picture
10 Dec
It's here! 🚨🚨🚨

/1

gov.uk/government/pub…
And the long-awaited criteria for the determination of goods at risk / not at risk of entering the EU market for GB- NI movements (we've been talking about this one for over a year!)

/2

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Derogation for SMEs on commercial processing which is part of the "at risk" criteria

/3 Image
Read 12 tweets
Dr Anna Jerzewska Profile picture
9 Dec
With the PM in Brussels, here is another reminder. On the deal vs no deal. And borders.

We need a deal. It’s in everyone’s interest. It will reduce tariffs (perhaps even full tariff/quota-free) and offer a range of other simplifications. BUT everything will still change

/1
One albeit (over)simplified way of looking at it is 👇

You have a border and what happens behind it.

⏺️Border barriers (friction, formalities, tariffs) and
⏺️Behind the border measures (regulation, alignment, cooperation etc)

/2
On the border barriers front, a deal would remove tariffs.

That's pretty much it.

Plus perhaps some additional simplifications, derogations (maybe some on SPS stuff depending on how far both parties want to go).

/3
Read 11 tweets
Dr Anna Jerzewska Profile picture
9 Dec
And there we have it.

A trusted trader scheme for GB - NI movements to avoid tariffs. Exit declarations from NI to be done by collecting data from transport and ferry companies.

/1
On exit declarations, it's doable, the information will be there. I'm still not convinced that the UK Gov won't at some point need more info (i.e. that this is sustainable) but this is a compromise - no paperwork but some data collection.

/2
I'll wait for further details but it seems like the way the JC has dealt with the famous "at risk" category of goods was by going around it and putting in place a trusted trader programme?

More to follow once we hear from CDL/ see the release

/3
Read 4 tweets

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