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Nsikan Akpan Profile picture
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20 Dec, 4 tweets, 3 min read
Fact check: The U.S./CDC has NOT set its full prioritization plan yet, expect for recommending that HCWs and residents of long-term care facilities should receive the first doses (phase 1a)...
The CDC A*C*IP panel is meeting today/right now to decide the other phases i.e., it hasn't voted or come to a decision yet.

People can literally download the slide presentations (cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/…) or watch along (ustream.tv/channel/VWBXKB…)....
Among those slides, an onlooker ::coughs::@NateSilver538::coughs:: will find a slide that shows the ACIP's proposal *IS* to prioritize phase 1a --> 1b --> 1c by age...
cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/…
By prioritizing the oldest (those +75), the U.S. will automatically capture a large portion with underlying conditions.

Why? Because those conditions become more common as people age (blue)... cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/…

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Nsikan Akpan Profile picture
20 Dec
This story is wild!

The day after Thanksgiving, Dr. Deborah Birx (of the WH coronavirus task force) traveled to one of her vacation properties in Delaware. She was accompanied by three generations of her family from two households... apnews.com/article/travel…
It's wild because a week before Thanksgiving, Dr. Birx said that people need "limit interactions [to] indoors, to immediate households when we see this level of community spread." rev.com/blog/transcrip… Image
Receipts! Image
Read 5 tweets
Nsikan Akpan Profile picture
23 Oct
““The statement that COVID-19 "has a 99.9% recovery rate" is something I would characterize as false," said Cory Zigler, an associate professor of statistics and data sciences and of women’s health at the University of Texas.” politifact.com/factchecks/202… #Debates2020
A team in Italy reported that 87% discharged from a Rome hospital were still experiencing at least one symptom 60 days after COVID-19 onset; 55% had three or more symptoms incl. fatigue (53%), difficulty in breathing (43%), chest pain (22%) evidence.nihr.ac.uk/themedreview/l… #Debates2020
One in four pregnant people with COVID-19 may have lingering ‘long-haul’ illness. nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/1… by @WeiPoints #Debates2020
Read 5 tweets
Nsikan Akpan Profile picture
14 Oct
The White House is embracing The Great Barrington Declaration, a proposal from "scientists" that opposes lockdowns in favor of "herd immunity." (nytimes.com/2020/10/13/wor…)

The math/history behind herd immunity can explain why this herd mentality is foolish. nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/1…
Reminder from my earlier thread about herd immunity/this story:

If places like NYC or Sweden had achieved the herd immunity threshold, then cases would be declining there rather than holding steady or increasing.
The two main reasons why a herd mentality would fail:

1) Kids' immune systems are born susceptible to infectious diseases.

2) Waning immunity is probable for SARS-CoV-2.

Both erode herd immunity over time, so we would never truly be in control. nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/1…
Read 6 tweets
Nsikan Akpan Profile picture
3 Oct
Some say that herd immunity achieved via regular ol' infection can stop the COVID-19 outbreak and return life to normal

History says they're wrong

For @NatGeo, I dive into herd immunity's origin story and why we need an effective vaccine to maintain it nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/1…
Now, those folks will say "But look at NYC!" where the caseload has been low and steady. This sustained recovery must be herd protection, they argue.

But based on the simple math behind herd immunity, this is a fantasy h/t Virginia Pitzer from @YaleSPH nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/1… Image
Likewise, if Sweden has achieved sufficient herd immunity, then their cases wouldn't be increasing right now at basically the same pace as eight months ago. ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da… Image
Read 15 tweets
Nsikan Akpan Profile picture
2 Oct
Things to know about President Trump's coronavirus diagnosis, based on COVID-19 research to date.

1. When did Hope Hicks catch the virus?

Likely unknowable, but her symptoms offer some clues on the timing...
Hicks reportedly developed symptoms Wednesday evening (left, via @AP). apnews.com/article/virus-…

COVID's incubation period—how long symptoms take to appear after exposure—ranges from 1-14 days, though most develop signs after 4-6 days. (📊: @ConversationUK)
theconversation.com/how-long-are-y…
Takeaway 1: Hope Hicks may have caught COVID-19 anytime between Sept. 16-29, but it was most likely last Thursday thru Saturday (Sept. 24-26).
Read 11 tweets
Nsikan Akpan Profile picture
27 Sep
.@nytimes has obtained Donald Trump’s tax information extending over more than two decades, revealing struggling properties, vast write-offs, an audit battle and hundreds of millions in debt coming due. nytimes.com/interactive/20… by @russbuettner @susannecraig @mmcintire
“Most of Mr. Trump’s core enterprises — from his constellation of golf courses to his conservative-magnet hotel in Washington — report losing millions, if not tens of millions, of dollars year after year.” 👀👀👀nytimes.com/interactive/20…
😮😮😮 “His properties have become bazaars for collecting money directly from lobbyists, foreign officials and others seeking face time, access or favor; the records for the first time put precise dollar figures on those transactions.”😮😮😮 nytimes.com/interactive/20… Image
Read 7 tweets

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