Thread by @RogerPielkeJr

My 2020 year-in-review thread

1. A “Sedative” for Science Policy @ISSUESinST

A critical look at Vannevar Bush's Science: The Endless Frontier at 75

issues.org/endless-fronti…

2. Memo for President Biden: Five steps to getting more from science @NatureNews

Neal Lane (science advisor to Bill Clinton) & I offer five recommendations on science policy for the incoming Biden Administration

nature.com/articles/d4158…

3. Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto @NatureNews

Pandemic politics highlight how predictions need to be transparent and humble to invite insight, not blame.

nature.com/articles/d4158…

4. Economic ‘normalisation’ of disaster losses 1998–2020: a literature review and assessment - Env. Hazards

A lit review of trends in economic costs of disasters normalized for societal change in the context of climate change & variability

tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…

5. Reply to: Improving normalized hurricane damages @naturesustainab

Productive back & forth with Martinez on Weinkle et al (2018)

nature.com/articles/s4189…

6. Catastrophes of the 21st Century @SSRN

Recommendations for what a robust and resilient global society might look like in the face of known, unknown and unknowable risks of the 21st century

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

7. An evaluation of good governance in US Olympic sport National Governing Bodies @EuroSportManQ

An application of the @playthegame_org SGO framework to evaluate the governance of 47 US Olympic NGBs (National Governing Bodies) of sport

tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…

8. Sport research and the policy movement @EJSS_EASS

The history of the broader policy movement provides guidance to aspiring researchers of sport policy & governance who seek to bring academic expertise to practical challenges of governance & policy

tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…

9. IPCC baseline scenarios have over-projected CO2 emissions and economic growth @IOPenvironment @IOPPublishing

Recent trends & IEA projections of global CO2 emissions have diverged from emission scenarios... we quantify the bases for this divergence

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…

10. Distorting the view of our climate future: The misuse and abuse of climate pathways and scenarios - Energy Research & Social Science

This paper describes how the use of scenarios in climate research got badly off track, and how it might get back on

Coming any day now ....

11. Optimistically biased economic growth forecasts and negatively skewed annual variation - @socarxiv

We compare medians and means in real per-capita GDP growth across countries, regions, and time windows from 1820-2016.

osf.io/preprints/soca…

12. Most of the credit for this work goes to my fantastic collaborators, 2many 2name here, but especially @matthewgburgess @jritch Neal Lane @JessicaWeinkle @AndreaSaltelli Spencer Harris @GabrieleBammer @JeromeRavetz Dan Sarewitz @Jeroen_vdSluijs Andy Stirling @philklotzbach 🙏

13. Anyone who would like a copy of any of these papers, please DM with an email address

Lots more to come in 2021

Happy Holidays all 🎅

14. PS. Special thanks to @matthewgburgess for the idea to do this YIR thread & more generally, for being an all-around fantastic colleague @CUBoulder