So here's some good news. You stayed home, you didn't catch (or spread, if you caught it) Covid. Well done, you stopped 4 people getting it 5 days later (1)
That means 5 days after that 16 people didn't have it... And you get where this is going. It also means 33 days later, on average, you saved someone's life (2)
Because the number who die of this disease, the proportion, is more or less that. 3 generations worth of spread is enough such that about 1 person is dead. And the average time it would have taken to kill that person is 33 days (3)
You were careful? You were responsible? Did you isolate if you thought you might have the disease? Then you're a goddamn hero and don't let anyone tell you otherwise. Well done. (Fin)

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More from @gnomeicide

20 Dec
326 Covid-19 fatalities in the UK today. Not a record for a Sunday, but high, and after a low number last Sunday, and a slow rise over the last few days, things are looking grim. Here's the overall picture (1)
Have a closer look at the resent trend. Thats a worrying upturn. (2)
3234 dead over the last 7 days, thats the highest 7 day total since November 28th. That means that the peak we'd hoped not to pass in the second wave, the high point so far, might be passed again soon (3)
Read 16 tweets
19 Dec
Another 489 needless and preventable fatalities due to Covid-19 announced in the UK yesterday. We may be reaching a new crisis point (1) Image
The recent trend is, sort of, kind of static. This reflects what lockdown 2 looked like - it stopped deaths rising. It hasn't caused a reduction in the death rate (2) Image
We'll break through 70,000 deaths soon, even using the governments entirely arbitrary and statistically shitty 28 day cutoff trick. (3) Image
Read 10 tweets
18 Dec
Right now, Covid deaths remain resolutely static in the UK. Here's the overall picture (1) Image
There are lots of ways of expressing the same data. I mean, that looks like things have levelled off, right? And thats... Good? Nope. Here's another way of looking at the same numbers, total dead (2) Image
For over a month now we've been trundling along with 400-500 deaths (on average) per day. That means we hit this point before the (very loose) second lockdown took hold of death figures and we haven't gone lower. Lockdown 2 did not work well enough (3) Image
Read 11 tweets
6 Aug
Mostly I don't stand out in a crowd. People don't hate me. I'm not very tall, or particularly noteworthy to look at in any way. But there's one thing I do every day that makes people hate me. Viscerally, and sometimes expressively and violently...
I can walk down any street in the UK and not stand out. There aren't no-go zones for white folk here in the UK, there aren't really 'no go zones' at all. If I talk to people, I've a Geordie accent. No one hates Geordies...
...in fact typically people smile and are immediately happy to hear a Geordie. Many surveys have shown it to be considered the most friendly and trustworthy accent...
Read 11 tweets
5 Aug
So... Nitram. Ammonium nitrate. Nasty stuff when it goes bang. And 2,750 tonnes just went bang. It's a big number. It's hard to take in. Some context... (1)
If it's a solid lump, with a density of 1.72, I make it that it would be near as dammit a cube 11.7m on each side. If it was solid. It wouldn't have been solid, but that's how much mass you need to visualise... (2)
You'd normally see it in 500kg massive pallet sized sacks. So, about 5,500 of those. A sense of scale is starting to emerge, yes? (3)
Read 14 tweets
1 Aug
Sorry to be a bringer of sad tidings, I really am, but todays figures for Covid-19 deaths in the UK are way above trend. 74. Here's the overall picture. (1)
The death total isn't going down. The seven day trend is upwards. Have a look at the most recent data here. The last month or so. We're looking at deaths per day remaining static, at present trending slightly up, over nearly two weeks (2)
The problem with big curves like the top one is that the human mind doesn't really take that in and see changing trends very easily. Log graphs help. As I keep saying, drop a log on it, if its straight then the trend is proportionally constant. Here's what that looks like now (3)
Read 15 tweets

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