Polling from Best for Britain shows extension has more than 2-to-1 backing. With Covid and Brexit double whammy getting worse, voters 'know UK is out of time'.
Only 18 per cent of voters back a no-deal outcome. Among Labour and Lib Dem supporters, that figure is a mere 4 per cent. Even among Leave voters, more want an agreement than favour no deal.
Support for ‘extension’ is higher than ‘no extension’ in every part of the country, and among Conservative supporters. All age groups strongly prefer an extension.
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An extension to the current transition arrangements can be achieved by agreement w/ EU or as part of a phased deal implementation. Whatever the mechanism (& whether it's called extension, an implementation period or a deferment) we need extra time. Here's how that could work👇1/8
Firstly, the govt gave up our automatic right to an extension in June - & offering this is beyond Barnier’s remit - so it’d need to be signed off by the EU27 & wld need a legal opinion from European Court of Justice. 2/8
Secondly, the EU uses a legal basis for every treaty it strikes. For the current withdrawal agreement & transition period (which started when we left on 31 Jan 2020), the EU used Article 50. 3/8
In May we produced a comprehensive report analysing the joint impact of a no-deal Brexit and covid-19. This is what we found 👇
The industries at particular risk of this double whammy are the manufacturing, banking, finance and insurance sectors
That’s 6.9million jobs in sectors such as manufacturing, banking & finance, distribution, hotels & restaurants and other services that could be affected
Back in October we published a report assessing the domestic impact of a no-deal, we found that the cost of basic goods would increase dramatically bestforbritain.org/britain2021
Using the gov’ts own figures set out in the UK global tariff regime earlier this year, we calculated that the cost of staple goods like tinned tomato and pasta would be subject to a 10-20% increase in cost
The average packet pasta would cost 65p, up from 53p
About a third of Scottish lamb goes for export, and 98% of that is to the European Union. French chefs highly value uplands-grazed lamb. There's a metaphor somewhere in there for the Brexit talks.
But for sheep farmers, this isn't metaphor. This is their future. The average tariff on sheep meat is 48%. It is not a flat rate: instead, there's a fee per kilo and a percentage of the value.
And the more it is butchered and processed, the higher the tariff on entering the European Union. One minister suggested sheep farmers could shift to beef, to replace Ireland's sales of beef into the UK. (He didn't offer suggestions on what Ireland's beef farmers should do.)
Abbott hinting that Frost should take concessions?
In today's International Trade Committee, ex-Aussie PM & official trade adviser Tony Abbott is told 'a good friend is also a critical friend' and asked what he would criticise regarding Britain's trade policy (thread). 1/5
Abbott: "The cautionary note that I gave to my public servants/negotiators back then, and I would probably give generally, is if you want a trade deal, focus on trade.
"And remember that the 'best' is the enemy of the 'good'." 2/5
Abbott: "If we hold out for a deal that is absolutely perfect in every respect, we might well never get it. But if we take the best we can get at this time, then that's nearly always good in itself and is the best possible platform for further progress." 3/5