An extension to the current transition arrangements can be achieved by agreement w/ EU or as part of a phased deal implementation. Whatever the mechanism (& whether it's called extension, an implementation period or a deferment) we need extra time. Here's how that could work👇1/8
Firstly, the govt gave up our automatic right to an extension in June - & offering this is beyond Barnier’s remit - so it’d need to be signed off by the EU27 & wld need a legal opinion from European Court of Justice. 2/8
Secondly, the EU uses a legal basis for every treaty it strikes. For the current withdrawal agreement & transition period (which started when we left on 31 Jan 2020), the EU used Article 50. 3/8
However, Article 50 is designed for a member state that is in the process of leaving the EU, not one that’s already left. Amending the current withdrawal agreement to change the extension deadline from 30 June to now wld legally be v complicated. 4/8
Creating a new transition period also v complicated: would probably need act of parliament on UK side and EU & UK would need to agree terms (e.g. UK contribution to EU budget for duration of period). 5/8
This means routes to an extension are:
1. A temporary deal (which effectively services as an extension)
2. Take the deal on the table & include an implementation phase as a buffer. 6/8
1. A temporary deal (which effectively services as an extension)
2. Take the deal on the table & include an implementation phase as a buffer. 6/8
If Johnson won't take what's on the table, a temporary deal would allow traders to adapt to a no-deal scenario in the event that talks break down & give businesses time to adapt supply chains. 7/8
Tl;dr - where there’s a will, there’s a way. An ‘extension’ by any other name would smell as sweet - and we’re more likely to get an ‘implementation period’ or ‘temporary deal’ from Johnson. 8/8
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