Dec 21, 2020 | 08:20 AM EST DOUG KASS
I Can't Recall When My Bearish Market Outlook Was So Far From the Bullish and Confident Consensus
* In late November I cautioned about the possibility that Covid-19 mutates - the evidence is now that it has
* Risk happens fast
* Today's investors are greedy (speculation has run amok) when they should be fearful
* Not since I was uber bullish in both March 2020 and December 2018 and market participants were fearful and Bearish, have I been so far from the market's consensus
* "The Tesla Top?"
* I even reduced my money center bank exposure for the first time in a long while on the "repurchase" gap after the close on Friday
* As many of my long positions have reached and exceeded my targets I have materially sold down my long book in recent weeks
(profits taken in ($GM) , ($WMT) , ($TWTR) , ($DIS) , ($GS) , ($MS) , ($VBR) , ($VTV) , etc.)
* I have added to my short book and I took a position in Nasdaq puts late last week - December 24 $311 puts
* Besides the Indices, "opening" stocks are my favorite short targets,
as I am large short Hilton and Hyatt $H $HLT
"Volatility, aided by central bankers' suppression of interest rates, remains low.
Dec 18, 2020 | 06:09 PM EST DOUG KASS
Taking Off Some From Bank Holdings in the After Hours
* The share repurchase news may mark a near-term top in the banking sector
For the first time in almost a year, I am scaling back some of my bank stock holdings now -- in
after-hours trading.
Though a bit unexpected (from the standpoint of timing) the buyback news after the market's close likely marks a near-term top in the shares of the major money center banks -- which have gotten extended and overbought with the late gaps higher:
* Citigroup (C) is trading at over $62.50 (+$3.50)
* Bank of America (BAC) is trading at $30.05 (+$1.40)
* JPMorgan (JMP) is trading at $125.75 (+$6.70)
* Wells Fargo (WFC) is trading at $30.02 (+$1.01)
* XLF (XLF) is trading at $29.55 (+$1.06)
@realmoney
Dec 18, 2020 | 09:29 AM EST DOUG KASS
A Word Of Caution
Yesterday saw the obliteration in a number of speculative stocks.
I don't own SPACs because many are not analyzable -- and my investment methodology is fundamentally-based.
Others don't seem to care -- as
the upside attraction of chasing "shiny objects" offsets the risks and the general lack of knowledge of the companies.
I fully get their view, but I do not share it. I will never purchase shares in a stock that I don't understand or that is trading below intrinsic value simply
because the share price is rising.
The latter approach of speculating has worked out fine for many -- but I am fearful that the strength of recent months may no longer continue.
@realmoney Dec 17, 2020 | 08:12 AM EST DOUG KASS
I Like Gold More Than Ever
* Our politicians and central bankers have lost their collective minds as short-term thinking (and policy) has replaced long-term planning
Over the last few weeks I have moved back to a very large long
position in gold, as represented by SPDR Gold Shares ($GLD) .
Both on the fiscal and monetary side I believe our officials have lost their collective minds.
Undisciplined and non-productive spending continues to run amok and so has our nation's bloated debt load and twin
deficits while the rationalization for enormous infusions of liquidity by the Fed is now going beyond the pale.
With real interest rates in deeply negative territory I believe the price of gold may begin advancing more rapidly -- even, perhaps, bitcoin-like" in 2021 --
@realmoney one timer!
Dec 16, 2020 | 09:07 AM EST DOUG KASS
Is Mr. Market Secretariat or a Cheap 'Tuesday Night' Horse?
* Rosy Scenario has taken over the investment playing field "as price has a way of changing sentiment" (hat tip to Divine Ms. M)
* Unprecedented liquidity,
historic monetary largesse and zero-commission trading have been the market's drugs; they will not be available at every corner forever
* The market is a fickle temptress... buying equities over the intermediate term at currently stretched valuations has historically been a
poor decision
* The stock market may end up resembling a cheap claimer, a "Tuesday night horse" rather than Secretariat!
@realmoney
What's more "real" - the charts of General Motors and WalMart or the charts of SPACs and the other "shiny objects" of affection?
Well, they both categories are "real." but I would argue that the charts of $GM and $WMT - which have moved steadily lower from their
recent highs (GM from $46.71 to $41.62 and WMT from $153.65 to $145.65) - may foreshadow some broader market concerns.
Don't get me wrong, trade whatevs makes you money - if you can profitably trade speculative stocks, not because they represent fundamental value but because
the share price is taking a northerly route as momentum is your best friend.
But my focus is on the larger market, here - and the deterioration in some large cap market leaders is another reason to have healthy skepticism of the market's overall direction.
See you all on Monday... from @realmoney
dougie kass • 14 minutes ago
Tesla and Twitter...
Not surprisingly not a word about $TSLA share fall from Tesla fan boys (and girls) on Twitter today.
But, god forbid the stock goes up in my (short) face!
Twitter is a cesspool of
anonymity, dogma, hatred and "I told you so's."
I am trying to stay off Twitter more and I no longer own the shares (having sold at $50-$51 before the last quarterly report (which was disappointing).
With Trump riding into the sunset in January I feel his continued tweeting