@realmoney
What's more "real" - the charts of General Motors and WalMart or the charts of SPACs and the other "shiny objects" of affection?
Well, they both categories are "real." but I would argue that the charts of $GM and $WMT - which have moved steadily lower from their
recent highs (GM from $46.71 to $41.62 and WMT from $153.65 to $145.65) - may foreshadow some broader market concerns.
Don't get me wrong, trade whatevs makes you money - if you can profitably trade speculative stocks, not because they represent fundamental value but because
the share price is taking a northerly route as momentum is your best friend.
But my focus is on the larger market, here - and the deterioration in some large cap market leaders is another reason to have healthy skepticism of the market's overall direction.
@realmoney one timer!
Dec 16, 2020 | 09:07 AM EST DOUG KASS
Is Mr. Market Secretariat or a Cheap 'Tuesday Night' Horse?
* Rosy Scenario has taken over the investment playing field "as price has a way of changing sentiment" (hat tip to Divine Ms. M)
* Unprecedented liquidity,
historic monetary largesse and zero-commission trading have been the market's drugs; they will not be available at every corner forever
* The market is a fickle temptress... buying equities over the intermediate term at currently stretched valuations has historically been a
poor decision
* The stock market may end up resembling a cheap claimer, a "Tuesday night horse" rather than Secretariat!
See you all on Monday... from @realmoney
dougie kass • 14 minutes ago
Tesla and Twitter...
Not surprisingly not a word about $TSLA share fall from Tesla fan boys (and girls) on Twitter today.
But, god forbid the stock goes up in my (short) face!
Twitter is a cesspool of
anonymity, dogma, hatred and "I told you so's."
I am trying to stay off Twitter more and I no longer own the shares (having sold at $50-$51 before the last quarterly report (which was disappointing).
With Trump riding into the sunset in January I feel his continued tweeting
What @revshark doesn't understand very well - and as I mention continuously in my Diary - is that works for one person may not work for another person (and vice versa), This is something
that escapes Rev in his commentary. I dont think my approach is the only way to deliver good returns. He seems to think his does - which I always found surprising from a libertarian.
* Day or week positioning in trades of well positioned (technically) small cap spec stocks is
an entirely different business than investing in large, higher quality names over a longer period of time. Its apples to oranges - but both can reap great results and there is value in both strategies.
@realmoney
Dec 03, 2020 | 03:56 PM EST DOUG KASS
Pfizer News Jabs at Market
The market appears to be trading off on news that Pfizer (PFE) expects to ship half of the Covid-19 vaccines it originally planned for this year, because of supply-chain problems. But the pharma company
still expects to roll out more than a billion doses next year.
@pboockvar just mentioned to me that "the S&P Index is trading 16% above its 200-day moving average -- at the same percentage as on Sept. 2."
We are now at the polar opposite of where we were in March.
The fear of eight months ago has been replaced by extreme greed and the absence of doubt.
It is truly amazing that in an investment setting dominated by passive products and strategies that chase momentum (knowing everything about price but nothing about value) --
Coming up on @realmoney (I think this is a good one!)
Investors Are (Inappropriately) Unconcerned That We Are At an Enormous "Distance" Financially to the Next Equilibrium Point in Interest Rates
* It is underappreciated and investors lack concern what may happen when the
currently bizarre rate instability is finally disrupted - as it must be someday
* The mountain of global debt will - more sooner than later - weigh on the capital markets
* We look for clues... that the consensus of rates lower for longer will begin to have the foul odor of
"Group Stink"
* Inflationary expectations and bond yields are quietly ticking up
* I remain short bonds (large sized)
* A further and inevitable drop in prices and rise in yields will likely begin to impact market multiples and rate sensitive areas