Thread by @FPL_JianBatra

No chip approach for BGW18 and DGW19;
(2nd wildcard exempt, unless purely using it to accommodate, 1 or 2 of these GWs).
#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL
THREAD:
Firstly, let’s look at the chip which has been discussed the most within the FPL community, the free hit.

The free hit has the potential to single-handedly swing an individual’s season for the positive, due to potentially having 22 games played for your team, including differentials with favourable fixtures for the particular GW. Let’s first take a look at BGW18. The free hit is....

something which you want to use to aggressively, hence in a DGW rather than BGW, that is my first problem with using it in BGW18. Secondly, the fixtures in BGW18 aren’t to appealing to me for two reasons; unpredictability of results and the lack of “high ceiling”..

performance potential, amongst non-Man City and Spurs assets. Taking a look at Sheffield Utd vs Newcastle, whilst a simple look at the table would suggest a comfortable Newcastle win, this isn’t the case, Sheffield Utd have been unlucky this season with some results, with some..

fairly decent performances, including the most recent against Man Utd and Brighton, alongside missing some sitters to clinch points. Both sides lack a distinct amount of attacking quality (Callum Wilson exempt), and with this game likely to be low scoring, the ceiling for....

players will be low, further without being able to predict a concrete result defenders’ clean sheets will always be in question. Wolves vs Everton, I believe could follow a similar pattern, with Everton being a lot more defensively secure in recent weeks....

through the change in personnel at full back. There is definitely a case that the likes of DCL, Richarlison, Neto etc. could haul, however I believe the risk simply outweighs the reward in this scenario. Arsenal vs Crystal Palace, again a similar approach, Palace have had a....

couple big results against West Brom and Leeds, however they both have worse defences the Arsenal. Under Arteta, Arsenal don’t tend to open up as much, limiting Wilfred Zaha’s haul potential, providing he returns at all. Aubameyeng would usually be the standout option in this....

fixture, however his poor form alongside Arsenal’s lack of creativity doesn’t exactly point to large returns. I feel the free hit usage here is more likely to pick up playing points with the occasional return, rather than form a team with explosive potential. Now looking at the..

other 2 fixtures in the week, which are by far the two, which FPL managers would be likely to target, Man City vs Brighton and Aston Villa vs Spurs. The problem I have with free hitting to get these players in, is that the players you would be free hitting in, should already....

be in your team come BGW18 or at a bare minimum in your plans for the not-too-distant future. Looking at 3 in particular, Harry Kane, Son Heung-Min and Kevin De Bruyne. The FPL potential these 3 assets provide alone is more than enough to warrant a place within your squad,....

however in tangent with the fixtures to add to this, I believe the 3 become essential. Kane and Son’s performances this season don’t need my validation, they have been fantastic this season and look certain to continue this. In regards to KDB, the argument of himself vs Bruno...

is definitely a fair one, however with Aguero returning to full fitness after a very careful recovery process, ensuring he was brought back when he was ready, I only see De Bruyne benefitting, as City have definitely lacked a killer instinct for goals without him. Looking at.....

Spurs first, they have favourable fixtures until GW20 and Man City until GW22. The 3 assets mentioned all have high ceiling potential alongside consistency to return, hence the strategy to use the 4 FTs between now and BGW18 to accommodate for these players could prove to be....

advantageous long term. A quick mention on the other 2 sides Villa and Brighton, Grealish, Watkins, Mings, Martinez and Lamptey are all popular picks with a combined ownership of 102.8%, so it is likely your squad contains at least 1 of these players, which makes the free hit....

less favourable. Overall, I expect sides to field between 4-8 players, very unlikely for all to return, and as long as you nail captaincy with one of the premiums, there is just as strong of a chance of the arrow being green rather than red. Moving onto DGW19, I’ll start by....

following on from my last point of the importance of Man City and Spurs assets. Whilst neither have a DGW, they both have favourable fixtures again, with Man City facing a Palace side which just shipped 7 to the champions, and Spurs facing Sheffield Utd, who have had the worst...

start to a premier league season by any team. Playing a free hit in this week, would be used by most to field 22 players essentially, however the assets mentioned previously, even though they only have one fixture could punish you dearly as a result of leaving them out.....

West Ham, Chelsea, Leicester, Leeds, Southampton, Man Utd and Liverpool, are the DGW teams which managers will be looking to, to fill places in their squad, however how desirable should they actually be? The Liverpool assets, follow a very similar argument to the above, they.....

are essential and you should already have them (which most likely a lot of people will, Salah at a minimum), if not transfer plans should be made urgently to get them in, hence whilst the free hit may allow you to have one extra Liverpool asset, it would be more beneficial in....

the long term to acquire these assets (Salah, Mane, Matip, Robertson, TAA) anyway. Next, taking a look at West Ham as they are the only team with 2 favourable fixtures (BUR(H), WBA(H)). Again, the assets you would most likely be looking at are Cresswell, Coufal and Antonio....

(if fit), I would avoid other assets such as Bowen and Haller, as goals are
often shared around within the West Ham team, the ceiling potential therefore for an individual lowers as a result. The 3 assets mentioned are very affordable, and shouldn’t be too difficult to fit....

into transfer plans, with possibilities of a simple swap from current popular picks such as Lamptey, Mings, KWP etc. (defence), DCL, Wilson (forward), a simple transfer following the conclusion of BGW18 should be feasible. West Ham have looked good all season, and with Moyes....

seeming to have a happy dressing room, the players playing well, I don’t see any reason for this not to continue, and return points for the DGW and also the rest of the season.
Are Southampton assets potentially a trap for this DGW? I believe they definitely could be, barring..

Che Adams. Facing 2 away games at Leicester and Leeds, both sides with attacking quality, combined with Southampton’s expansive football, and relatively high line, I could definitely see an outcome where FPL mangers are left empty handed from the defensive assets. Further....

Southampton’s medium term fixture run isn’t too appealing. On the contrary Che Adams, has definitely got the potential to haul against a Leeds side who have leaked goals this season, and Leicester who aren’t the most secure defence in the league. The only problem I see with.....

Adams is, following the Ing’s injury (return date unknown), this is more likely to affect Southampton’s attacking potential in a negative manner rather than a positive. Plus, as displayed today against City, he is vital in the press off the ball to box teams in their own half....

They struggle to create an out ball, which not only could lead to “cheap” goals being scored, but less pressure faced defensively.
Other ways to navigate this DGW19 without playing the free hit; factor into transfer plans Reece James, Bruno Fernandes, Jamie Vardy (an option I..

would personally avoid but definitely see the argument to include him). The 3 mentioned, alongside other players from their teams are also likely to already be in your teams, therefore reducing the potential increase a free hit could provide you this week, further especially.....

the first two are likely to be good season long picks. The only feasible triple captain option in my opinion is Mohammed Salah, however with one fixture being Man Utd, I believe the potential occurrence of a premium player having 2 favourable fixtures later down the line....

sounds more appealing to me. Ole is not tactically naive in the big games, and will set his side up therefore to be extremely difficult to break down, and hit Liverpool on the counter, which he has done successfully many a time in his 2-year reign at the club. All other assets...

who could be considered for the triple captaincy this week, don’t have the combination of form + fixture to warrant handing them the armband. Finally, in regards to the bench boost, I would certainly not wildcard in order to make a squad with 15 players who are going to play,....

purely for the purpose of bench boosting. The reason, there is far more long-term value investing that money from a 5.5m midfielder, to a 4.5m midfielder (assuming both would be benched or subject to rotation in a normal GW) in order to facilitate more premium players. As this...

FPL year has exemplified, you pay for what you get, there has been excellent value across many of the premiums. However, the bench boost as a chip in its entirety, is not one I believe to be of the greatest value because to have a strong bench means you are sacrificing your....

starting 11, hence I don’t think too much emphasis should be placed planning around it. So, if you can’t see yourself creating a 15-man squad, it may be worth it even for one or two DGW players. The triple captain as discussed, I would aim to play on a premium player with two....

favourable fixtures, who is also inform. The opportunity will present itself potentially in GW29, following the rescheduled fixtures for Man Utd and Man City from GW1, Utd would face Burnley (A) and Crystal Palace (A), whereas City would face Aston Villa (H) and Wolves (H). A...

good set of fixtures, with Fernandes and KDB standing out as obvious candidates, would make it more beneficial. However, this is subject to change following any fixture rescheduling from the Premier league (courtesy of @BenCrellin). Finally, the free hit chip, as per usual the...

FA cup ties will come around and eventually teams will have to postpone a premier league fixture due to their success in the cup. The number of teams will decrease as the cup reaches its conclusion, and by logic you would expect the “better” sides to make deeper runs. As an...

example, should Liverpool and Chelsea get to the final, they will at some point have DGW, alongside 2 other teams. The fact there are less players involved in the DGW, means not everyone is likely to own them, and if at that point you can have 22 players essentially, it could....

prove to be a big advantage. The move of the EFL Cup final From GW26 to GW33, will present another set of a smaller DGW and larger BGW, meaning the free hit strategy above will have be accessible twice at a minimum. (courtesy of @BenCrellin). The triple captain and free hit....

approach are completely inter-changeable. If you made it this far, firstly, I would just like to thank you, and any constructive criticism in the comments would be welcome.
JB

#BGW18 #DGW19