I'm going to try and put this riveting BBC story in context for people who haven't heard about the 2012 Mojiang miners and a potential link to covid/SARS2 before. bbc.com/news/world-asi…
In 2012, miners working in a mine full of bats in Mojiang, Yunnan, China succumbed to a mysterious pneumonia. According to a medical thesis, these were likely caused by a SARS-like bat virus from the mine. Several experts, including WIV, were consulted and tested patient samples.
These cases have "been given new meaning by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Those three deaths are now at the centre of a major scientific controversy about the origins of the virus and the question of whether it came from nature, or from a laboratory."
Why? Because the closest virus relative to SARS2 (the covid virus), named RaTG13, was collected by the Wuhan Institute of Virology from exactly this mine where people died from a SARS-like respiratory illness back in 2012.
9+ months after publishing @Nature paper on SARS2 & RaTG13, WIV finally told the world, yes, RaTG13 is from this mine where people died from severe respiratory illness, and they failed to attribute it to their prior paper where RaTG13 was named '4991': nature.com/articles/s4158…
Not only that, but RaTG13 was only 1 of 9 SARS viruses they collected from the mine between 2012-2015. No idea if more were collected after 2015. Several other labs had also visited this mine to collect bat viruses, including the lab of the Chinese CDC director.
So this BBC team goes down to Mojiang to visit the mine, and what happens?
"We found obstacles in our way, including a "broken-down" lorry, which locals confirmed had been placed across the road a few minutes before we arrived."
".. we met yet another "broken down" car in our path.
We were trapped in a field for over an hour, before finally being forced to head for the airport."
Is there this kind of obstruction at all of the other bat caves visited by the WIV over the past decade?
"For more than a decade, the rolling, jungle-covered hills in Yunnan - and the cave systems within - have been the focus of a giant scientific field study.. led by Prof Shi"
Might a Chinese laboratory have had a virus they were working on that was genetically closer to Sars-Cov-2, and would they tell us now if they did? "Not everything that's done is published," Dr Lucey said.
Daszak: "I've met and had dinner with them over 15 years.. I'm working in China with eyes wide open, and I'm racking my brain back in time for the slightest hint of something untoward. And I've never seen that."
Quote: His collaboration with the WIV, (Daszak) said, "makes me one of the people on the planet who knows the most about the origins of these bat coronaviruses in China".
IMO it also makes him not an appropriate member of origins investigation addressing possible WIV lab leak.
"Prof Shi has also faced questions about why the WIV's online public database of viruses was suddenly taken offline. She told the BBC that the WIV's website and the staff's work emails and personal emails had been attacked, and the database taken offline for security reasons."
So, can the data from this database be shared with investigation committees? Wouldn't this be a key piece of evidence either supporting or debunking lab origins?
Did anyone outside of China have access to this WIV database of viruses that was taken offline when covid struck?
"we now know that back in 2013 the closest known ancestor was discovered of a future threat that would claim well over a million lives and devastate the global economy.
Yet the WIV... did nothing with it, except sequence it and enter it into a database." bbc.com/news/world-asi…
Peter Daszak told the BBC. "To say that we failed is not fair at all. What we should have been doing is 10 times the amount of work on these viruses."
Could Daszak please describe what this "10 times the amount of work" would've looked like?
Daszak, earlier in 2020, appeared unaware that RaTG13 had been sequenced in 2017 and 2018. In multiple interviews, he said that RaTG13 sample had been thrown in the freezer for 6 years until covid broke out. He was incorrect.
I'm not saying that SARS2 was derived from RaTG13. Would be exceedingly difficult to demonstrate that.
What is clear: Journalists are being obstructed from looking into the Mojiang SARS-like cases from 2012. WHO won't look into lab leak. WIV records and databases not shared.
Daniel Lucey, infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University, speculated that "We should search until we find (origins of covid). I think it's findable and I think it's quite possible it's already been found.. But then the question arises, why hasn't it been disclosed?"
I also concur with this view that someone likely already knows where this virus came from. Otherwise why are pangolins+other exotic animals still being massively trafficked, wet markets are still open (albeit no live animals), frozen food still being imported into China?
In the mean time, @WHO covid origins investigation team keeps telling journalists that finding the source will likely take years and that they're just going to build off China's reports and go looking in SE Asia (not China!) for SARS2-like bat viruses.
Daszak: “I have seen substantial evidence that these are naturally occurring phenomena driven by human encroachment into wildlife habitat, which is clearly on display across south-east Asia."
SEAsia, hope ur experts r thinking about outcomes of virus sampling in your countries.
To forestall any more grassy knoll comments, please see Dr. Shi's - top SARS expert, most familiar with the coronavirus research being done at the WIV - own reaction to first hearing about the outbreak in Wuhan. scientificamerican.com/article/how-ch…
Short video of the BBC team being stopped by broken down lorries and checkpoints. "We end our trip to Yunnan trapped in a field for over an hour."
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A single event "sent viruses to at least 29 other states and 9 countries.. resulting in 100ks of infections.. One of the surprising things is the extent.. viruses can spread so quickly, particularly when younger, healthier people are involved who don’t realize they are infected."
".. the ultimate impact to society can paradoxically be greater when chains of transmission involve younger, healthier, and more mobile populations. That has important implications for the precautions people need to take, even after vaccination."
"people who have been vaccinated could still be infected, carrying and transmitting the virus, without feeling sick. Until we know more, it is critical that those who have been vaccinated still wear masks, practice physical distancing, and take other precautions to avoid spread."
"Asked about seeking access to the Wuhan lab to rule the lab-leak theory out, (Daszak on @WHO + @thelancet origins committees) said: "That's not my job to do that.
"The WHO negotiated the terms of reference.. and that's what we've got to do," he added.
Daniel Lucey: "So here we are, 12, 13 months out since the first recognised case of Covid-19 and we haven't found the animal source... So, to me, it's all the more reason to investigate alternative explanations."
Yes, I think the panic may be causing more damage in terms of exodus from highly infected areas into the rest of the country (UK). Similar to how the Europe travel ban just made more Americans flock back home, bringing scores of the virus into the US in early 2020.
Really want to reinforce that there is a great deal of agency - personal agency - in the control of covid outbreaks.
People deciding not to attend crowded events, whether it's work, social (weddings, holiday parties), religious - can make all of the difference.
Maybe after proper experiments, it turns out that the new variant in the UK does actually lead to 2x more virus replication (still an unknown!). But it doesn't mean that covid has become suddenly unstoppable.
You can still stop transmission. With your personal decisions.
Media reporting of covid seems to be getting more nuanced and accurate! “That does not mean the mutation has made it spread more easily, nor does it not necessarily mean this variation is more dangerous.” cnn.com/2020/12/20/uk/…
“Multiple experts in the genetics and epidemiology of viruses are noting that this one could be just a "lucky" strain that's been amplified because of a superspreader event...”
“Jeremy Farrar said, "Research is ongoing to understand more, but acting urgently now is critical. There is no part of the UK & globally that should not be concerned.”
This is why we need both sequencing of circulating sars2 virus and extensive testing and contact tracing. It will help to figure out whether the faster spread of a particular variant is due to a new set of mutations or due to a superspreading event. washingtonpost.com/health/british…
There’s a reason why superspreading events are called superspreading events. The spread is explosive, reaching beyond the event itself into new communities and infecting dozens of people who didn’t even attend the event. washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/12…
“A new analysis of the Biogen event at a Boston hotel has concluded that the coronavirus strains loosed at the meeting have since migrated worldwide, infecting about 245,000 Americans — and potentially as many as 300,000 — by the end of October.”
@USRightToKnow sets the context for some of the emails (doc 1, p963) that relate to a discussion by top experts on 3 Feb 2020, convened by NASEM to inform White House OSTP.
Questions I have on top of those raised by @sai_suryan in the USRTK article...
From the first draft of the letter, where it states the initial view of the experts is that SARS2 genomic data are consistent with natural evolution, there is a footnote (5) saying "possibly add brief explanation that this does not preclude an unintentional release from a lab..."