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22 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Negative interest rates for the UK back in play? 📉

Financial futures markets are pricing in a higher chance of negative rates next year from the Bank if England in wake of the Tier 4 restrictions announced at the weekend & fears of a return to recession...👇 Image
....Although worth noting that markets still seem to think chances are lower than expected earlier this month (see green line)...👇 Image
...Futures data handily published by Bank of England alongside its daily yield curve data by the way...

bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/yie…
...Personally, I'd expect negative rates in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Otherwise I think the Bank will try extremely hard to avoid them.

But what would negative rates mean for you?

@Independent explainer here 👇

independent.co.uk/news/business/…

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More from @BenChu_

Ben Chu Profile picture
24 Dec
When Boris Johnson said - wrongly - there will be no non-tariff barriers to trade with the EU it wasn't a slip of the tongue or an extempore blurt.

The line was explicitly written in his address 👇

gov.uk/government/spe… Image
To be clear, non-tariff barriers are things like paperwork for exporters, checks on imported products, licencing requirements for professionals, and differences in regulations that firms must comply with...
The single market eliminated many of these non-tariff barriers facing UK firms.

The UK is leaving the single market so they will return.
Read 4 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
24 Dec
In terms of the economic impact of this free trade deal with the EU it's important to realise that it's essentially avoiding harm.

Here's the @OBR_UK estimate of what a no-deal would have done to UK GDP over the next couple of years... Image
...Here's what @uk_tpo think the UK import tariffs from no-deal could have done to domestic prices... Image
....Here's some estimates by @TheIFS researchers of the impact of no-deal scenario tariffs on exports to the EU on various UK industrial sectors... Image
Read 5 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
24 Dec
What does this free trade deal with the EU mean for the UK economy?

Thread

First thing to say is that avoiding a no-deal economic breakdown on 31 December is VERY good news.

Would have meant huge disruption and massive pain for certain sectors hit by tariffs...1/
....And unknowable but potentially profoundly negative longer term impact on particular industries...

Discount the "prospering mightily" rhetoric.

But what about the impact of the deal that's actually been reached?...2/
...We need to see the detail (2,000 pages apparently) but we can confidently say that it will be very think.

Why because the UK government was only ever asking for a thin deal...3/
Read 5 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
22 Dec
UK public debt hits £2.1 trillion in November according to latest @ONS data...ons.gov.uk/economy/govern… Image
...But important to remember that falling UK interest rates mean that the government's cost of servicing this spiking debt is projected by the @OBR_UK to FALL as a share of GDP not rise 👇 Image
Rishi Sunak says in response to today's public finance figures: "When our economy recovers, it’s right that we take the necessary steps to put the public finances on a more sustainable footing"...
Read 4 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
9 Dec
Did the Office for National Statistics really produce ‘false data’ on coronavirus infections?

Were new cases actually plateauing in October?

Had a look at this question for @indypremium ...👇

independent.co.uk/independentpre…
In short, no.

But it's an understandable confusion.

The latest estimates of new daily cases in England produced by ONS modelling of data from its weekly coronavirus survey HAS been revised down dramatically and DOES show much flatter profile in October than previous estimates..
...As many have pointed out (such as @SarahDRasmussen & @ChrisGiles_ ) the ONS modelling estimates are very volatile.

The time series gets revised a lot as new info gets fed into the model.

Some argue it swings too much, and that this is a deficiency of the model...
Read 9 tweets
Ben Chu Profile picture
8 Dec
Lots of businesses have refused cash and asked customers to pay by contactless during the panedmic. 💵🦠

Yet the value of cash in circulation has jumped...
...So what's going on? Hoarding? Difficulties for firms in depositing cash?

I was really pleased to discuss this and many other issues about about Covid and the future of cash with @krogoff and @HowardJDavies in our latest @CoronaNomicsTV episode....
....ICYMI watch here 👇
Read 4 tweets

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