$TRIT call went about as well as possible

Here are the highlights:

2.749B Q3 trade + trade finance volume

878M Q3 trade finance volume (1.7B YTD)

40.7M YTD revenue (17M in Q3)
24.2M YTD net income (10M in Q3)

Run-rate revenue per trader 1.03M Q3 vs. 750k Q2 (37% increase)
Q3 traders 66 vs. 61 in Q2 (8.2% increase QoQ)

The 66 traders could have been a much larger number but was limited by internal bandwidth. Significant senior exec. hiring initiative is ongoing, touching Europe, North America, and Dubai (already hired).
Recruiting a Chief Revenue Officer

171.6M in cash on hand as of 11/30. Open to accretive M&A to assist organic growth

Koneru will be buying shares when the trading window opens
Related party revenue down from 24.9% in Q1+Q2 to 11.2% in Q3!

Partnering with a 3rd party to provide cross border payment functionality on Kratos by March

Supply chain finance module will contribute 10-20% of revenue moving forward

Logistics module is not included in guidance
Notable sigh after being asked the full size of pipeline, but then made good point about how on-boarding one large funder could severely skew results.

I expect mgmt. to have a better handle on the pipeline size in Q4, as this was the one place where I wanted to hear more.
There were certainly moments where you could tell this was management's first Q&A, but they explained the Rhodium situation well.

The analysts seemed to be confused by the trade finance industry, but their numerous clarification questions were handled well by mgmt.
The guidance is undoubtedly conservative.

Assuming no QoQ growth, revenue will be 57.7M (1.9% beat) and net income 34.2M (4% beat)

65M in revenue and 38M net income I think are achievable in Q4 provided the new traders ramp fast.
@DPogrebinsky Let me know if I missed anything

The stock's reaction since the strong open suggests this is still a prove it story which is fine by me.

I will be adding today as I am struggling to find a better long-term opportunity than $TRIT in this crazy market.

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More from @Patrick_Invests

21 Dec
Slightly skewed to the bulls side but Rhodium's bad trade not being handled on Kratos is very important news because it validates $TRIT's product-market fit.
I don't think Rhodium not routing all its trades through Kratos is a reason there couldn't be fraud here, as any knowledgable bad actor would think to disguise the scheme using other platforms
The counterpoint about Koneru leaving Rhodium is strong, but the concerning trend is that's twice now where Koneru (and Maurer with Exxova + not buying Rhodium) has left a company and it has imploded. That's the true concern.
Read 4 tweets
21 Dec
A few companies I am considering initiating a position in once I do more diligence and get through the other names in a long research list:
$GOCO: ML for Medicare Advantage, 36% proj. revenue growth for 20x forward earnings, binary event risk if Biden gets a public option passed (requires Dems. win both GA runoffs), significant customer concentration, great writeup on this by @richard_chu97 richardchu97.substack.com/p/gohealth-an-…
$FOOD.T ( $GDDFF) One of many meal-kit delivery companies [dominant in Canada] but big differentiator is budding expansion into online groceries, meal-kits are highly promotional and are a high churn area vs. online grocery which could be a big hit, 2021 churn is a major question
Read 6 tweets
17 Dec
$TRIT Alright, so the short report doesn't seem too notable given the Rhodium news (which is notable) broke before it was published. If anyone has read the full report behind the paywall, please correct me if wrong. Given the market reaction since 11AM EST, I'll focus on Rhodium.
On the surface, losing a customer who represents ~10% of revenue is obviously bad, especially when losing them to

On the other hand, reiterating guidance despite losing said customer is pretty impressive.
Furthermore, $TRIT trades at a well below market multiple (~10x 2021 earnings), so unlike $FSLY (similar cust. concentration issue), where any slight change in the growth trajectory violently affects the stock, Triterras doesn't need to smash estimates to stay afloat
Read 14 tweets
16 Dec
Based on this afternoon’s price action there’s a non-trivial chance this is $TRIT

Anyone long $TRIT has to understand Koneru and Maurer had a failed venture (tried to exit before it fell through but unclear if they did).

I detailed in my initiation thread what happened.
The second major concern is the revenue concentration from Rhodium and Netfin (and affiliates).

Related party transactions aren’t ideal, but given the nature of the trade finance industry, it may be needed to help jumpstart interest in Kratos
2021 will be all about onboarding new lenders and external trading companies.

Shortsellers play an important role in the market, and Triterras is an easy target given its risks.

If something new comes up in a short report, I will reevaluate my thesis.
Read 4 tweets
16 Dec
$TRIT up big off this analyst note which reads very bullish.

I tend to ignore PT of early stage companies such as Triterras, but there are some other key points here I did like
First, the comps chosen were $TW and $MKTX which trade at roughly ~36x and ~51x 2021 EBITDA

$TRIT trades at 14.1x 2021 EBITDA with much faster growth and worse EBITDA and net margins

Triterras deserves to trade at a much lower multiple until it proves it can scale its ecosystem
The margin profiles of these comps fit $TRIT mgmt. projections pretty well, so while they are on the very high end of the total comp set laid out by mgmt., Oppenheimer choosing them isn't cherrypicking to me.
Read 8 tweets
15 Dec
Always hard to quantify the value of partnerships, but the $CWH $RIDE agreement seems very bullish for $CWH

$4M cash outlay to prep 170+ service locations to assist EVs (not just electric RVs per Marcus if I heard correctly)
Good Sam Services revenues are ~60% gross margin vs. a weighted average 31% gross margin for the rest of the business

Pursuing partnerships in their higher margin segments is a smart way to expand margins quickly with minimal upfront investment
Yes, electrified motorhomes are a cool concept and a big development, but by preparing their servicing locations to assist EVs of any type, this is likely not the last partnership to provide servicing to an EV manufacturer
Read 6 tweets

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