Thread by @JakeSherman

OK — this is a thread about the Electoral College process on Capitol Hill. I put it in Playbook PM. Tomorrow is my last edition of Playbook PM.

IN CASE YOU FORGOT, to launch a challenge to a state’s Electoral College’s results, a member of the House and a member of the Senate need to sign on. This has happened three times in the last 20 years: 2001, 2005 and 2017 -- all by Democrats.

IN OTHER WORDS, THIS ISN’T A ONCE-IN-A-CENTURY procedure -- it’s relatively common, but it never works.

HERE’S HOW IT WILL GO DOWN: A member of the House and Senate each need to sign on to a challenge to a state’s results. If that happens, the House and Senate each vote on the challenge. Both chambers have to vote affirmatively to accept the challenge.

Neither chamber will accept a challenge-- period. Won’t happen. Just like if you jump out the window and flap your arms, you won’t fly -- Congress will reject any challenge if it even gets that far because the Democratic House will not vote to overturn the electoral results.

THE VP TYPICALLY presides over the certification in his role as the president of the Senate. @jonathanvswan had an excellent report this morning about how TRUMP is turning on everyone, and how he would view PENCE certifying the results of the election as “the ultimate betrayal.”

@jonathanvswan WELL, PENCE DOESN’T HAVE TO if he doesn’t want to. If PENCE declines to show up, Sen. CHUCK GRASSLEY, the 87-year-old Iowa Republican who is president pro tempore of the Senate, does it in his place. No sweat, no problem.

@jonathanvswan IN 1969, HUBERT HUMPHREY declined to preside over the certification because he was the losing presidential candidate.

So Deschler’s Precedent says this: “In the absence of the President of the Senate, the President pro tempore of the Senate presides over the joint session to count the electoral votes for President and Vice President.”

This is the precedent that was set in 1969. (h/t this terrific CRS report about the process by which Congress will certify the Electoral College bit.ly/3plopQN

OF COURSE, declining to show up is probably as bad as showing up and certifying the results, in TRUMP’S mind.

THE LARGER MORAL QUESTION is can PENCE preside if he has already been strategizing with the opposition.

2 UNANSWERED questions that may have to be decided by Congress’ rules authorities in the coming days and weeks:

Can Congress vote to reject PENCE as the presiding officer because he has a stake in the outcome? Congress can practically do anything it wants with a majority vote.

2) If PENCE does preside and goes to bat for TRUMP, can Congress overturn an unjust or improper ruling? This is also an open question.

JAN. 6 will be a long day, given TRUMP has a crew of House Republicans willing to follow him down this idiotic rabbit hole. But this is going to fail in a spectacular fashion.